Turkish Lira Forecast & Price Predictions 2025 and Beyond: CBRT Continues Cutting Rates as Inflation Pressures Ease

The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) has initiated a monetary easing cycle, reducing its policy interest rate by 250 basis points to 45%. This decision follows a period of maintaining the rate at 50% and reflects a response to the declining inflation trend, with annual inflation decreasing to 44.38% in December 2024 from a peak of 75% in May 2024.  

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has indicated that further interest rate cuts are anticipated throughout 2025, emphasizing the priority of reducing inflation through various tools, including monetary policy adjustments. A Reuters poll suggests that the central bank may ease rates to approximately 28.5% by the end of 2025, with forecasts ranging between 25% and 33%.  

The CBRT's strategy includes reducing the number of policy meetings to eight in 2025, down from twelve in 2024, to better manage monetary policy decisions. Additionally, the International Monetary Fund has advised Turkey to avoid substantial minimum wage increases, as they can fuel inflation, and instead focus on targeted social programs to support low-income populations.

Regarding the Turkish Lira's outlook, Standard & Poor's forecasts the currency to trade at 42.0 against the USD by the end of 2025. This projection aligns with the anticipated monetary policy adjustments and the ongoing efforts to stabilize inflation. 

Turkish Lira Forecast & Price Prediction 2025 – Summary   

• Turkish Lira forecast Q1 2025: After recent interest rate cuts by the Central Bank of Türkiye to 45%, the lira is forecasted to remain under pressure in the short term, with further depreciation likely as monetary easing continues. Analysts forecast USD/TRY and EUR/TRY may test new highs, driven by declining inflation but persistent structural economic challenges.
• Turkish Lira price prediction 2025: Fundamentally, the TRY is forecasted to weaken further in 2025 as Turkey’s central bank prioritizes gradual inflation reduction. Analysts forecast a 12–15% decline in the lira's value against the US Dollar by the end of 2025, with monetary policy adjustments unlikely to stabilize the currency significantly in the near term.  
• Turkish Lira forecast for the next 5 years: Agencies and banks remain bearish on the Turkish lira’s long-term forecast, citing political and economic uncertainties. The most pessimistic projections foresee USD/TRY trading at 90–95 by 2030, as inflationary pressures and policy risks persist under Erdoğan’s administration.

With NAGA.com you can trade CFDs on USD/TRY and EUR/TRY with low fees, tight spreads and easy-to-use interface.

Start Trading Turkish Lira

High-interest rate currencies like the Turkish lira are very attractive to those who are aiming for swap points in forex trading. However, for beginners, trading for Turkish lira swap points carries a great deal of risk. 

Follow the USD/TRY, EUR/TRY, and GBP/TRY price charts for live data, and read our latest Turkish Lira forecast and price predictions for 2023 and beyond. Key pivot points and support and resistance levels provide further insights to help you make informed trading decisions. 

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Fundamental Turkish Lira Forecast 2025 - Monetary policy under focus 

With the Turkish Central Bank's recent monetary policy decisions and broader economic fundamentals shaping the trajectory of the Turkish Lira, following a turbulent period of high inflation and aggressive monetary tightening, new dynamics have emerged as Türkiye enters a monetary easing cycle. 

Monetary Policy Under Scrutiny

The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) recently cut interest rates by 250 basis points to 45%, marking the beginning of a monetary easing phase. Governor Fatih Karahan emphasized balancing inflation control with economic growth, while Deputy Governor Osman Akcay stressed the risks of premature rate cuts. Akcay noted that an overly aggressive easing could destabilize the market, making cautious, incremental adjustments essential to avoid reigniting inflationary pressures.

Despite this shift, further rate cuts will depend on the inflation trend. As of December 2024, annual inflation had dropped to 44.38%, a significant improvement from the peak of 75% earlier in the year. However, persistent price pressures in the service sector and administrative price adjustments, such as a 30% increase in natural gas prices, continue to pose risks. 

Inflation Trends and Economic Slowdown 

While inflation has been on a downward trajectory, driven by the lagged effects of tight monetary policies, underlying price pressures remain elevated. The Turkish Lira’s real depreciation has contributed to easing inflationary momentum, but tight financial conditions are expected to trigger a significant economic slowdown in early 2025.

The timing of further rate cuts will hinge on inflationary expectations, external economic conditions, and the CBRT’s ability to balance growth with price stability. Analysts caution that the broader impact of monetary easing on domestic demand could amplify downside risks for the Turkish economy in the near term. 

Current Account Improvement and External Pressures

Turkey’s current account deficit has improved significantly, bolstered by robust export performance and declining imports due to subdued domestic demand. Foreign investor interest has also increased, with inflows resuming in late 2024, reflecting growing confidence in Turkish assets.

The CBRT’s reserves are likely to benefit from a continued narrowing of the current account deficit, and the possibility of a monthly surplus in certain periods of 2025. However, external pressures, such as Turkey’s reliance on energy imports, could pose challenges. A favorable decline in global energy prices would provide further support for the current account and inflationary moderation. 

Geopolitical and Global Economic Influences

Geopolitical risks remain a wildcard for Turkey’s economic outlook. Regional tensions, its role in NATO, and global energy transit dynamics could impact investor sentiment and the lira’s trajectory. Additionally, global monetary policy trends, particularly the Federal Reserve’s stance, could drive capital flows and pressure the lira further if the Fed maintains a hawkish outlook. 

Tourism and Domestic Demand

Tourism continues to be a bright spot for Turkey’s economy. Record visitor numbers in 2024 and projections for 2025 are expected to generate significant foreign currency inflows, supporting the lira and easing pressure on the current account. However, domestic challenges, such as the impact of potential minimum wage hikes on inflation, remain a concern. 

Long-Term Turkish Lira Forecast  

While short-term improvements in the current account and inflation trends are encouraging, agencies and banks remain bearish on the lira’s long-term outlook. Analysts forecast Turkish Lira will depreciate 12–15% against the US Dollar in 2025, with pessimistic 5-year forecasts placing USD/TRY as high as 90–95.

Ultimately, Turkey’s ability to balance monetary policy, stabilize inflation, and address structural economic challenges will determine the lira’s future trajectory. 

Turkish Economy Outlook and Forecast

The local elections in March 2024 reinforced Türkiye's shift towards more orthodox economic policies, a strategy initiated in 2023. This approach included tightening financial conditions to stabilize the economy, curb inflation, and strengthen macroeconomic fundamentals. 

Can Turkish Exports Benefit from Lira’s Depreciation?

Under the Turkish Economic Program (TEP), introduced in mid-2021, the goal was to boost exports, employment, and manufacturing. Between September 2021 and May 2023, the central bank slashed its key interest rate from 19% to 8.5%, triggering a 60% decline in the Turkish lira’s value and fueling inflation, which peaked at 85.5% in October 2022.

While the lira’s devaluation was expected to enhance export competitiveness, the results were mixed. Turkish exports rose by 13.4% between 2021 and 2023, but imports surged by 33%, widening the trade deficit to $106 billion in 2023 (9.5% of GDP), up from $46 billion in 2021 (6% of GDP). Despite nominal export growth, the trade imbalance has proven to be a persistent challenge for the economy.

Global energy and commodity prices also remain critical. Lower oil prices in early 2025 could ease import costs, helping to narrow the current account deficit. Furthermore, ongoing negotiations with Russia and Central Asia for favorable energy agreements may strengthen Türkiye’s trade position. 

Impact of Negative Real Interest Rates on Companies

During the era of negative real interest rates, Turkish companies leveraged low-cost loans to maintain operations, despite runaway inflation. Businesses with strong pricing power and production capacity thrived, passing costs onto consumers and preserving margins.

Between 2021 and 2023, labor costs surged by 270% per unit due to production pressures. Yet, businesses remained profitable thanks to the cheap borrowing environment, which temporarily offset the inflationary squeeze on operating costs. 

Orthodox Policies and their Economic Consequences

In June 2023, the Turkish Central Bank shifted to a more conventional monetary stance, hiking its key interest rate from 8.5% to 50%, with commercial loan rates climbing to 70%. This pivot aimed to control inflation, moderate domestic demand, and stabilize the lira.

In the medium term, this policy adjustment is expected to rebalance the economy. Real GDP growth of 3% is forecasted for 2025, with inflation projected to decline to 37% by the end of the year. Tourism has emerged as a bright spot, with record-breaking visitor numbers in 2024 likely to be surpassed in 2025. This provides critical foreign exchange inflows to mitigate some pressures from capital outflows.

Additionally, fiscal tightening measures—such as reducing subsidies and raising taxes—are being implemented to improve public finances. These policies, while painful in the short term, aim to support long-term macroeconomic stability. 

A Path to Long-Term Economic Stability  

Looking ahead, Turkish businesses are well-positioned to achieve sustainable growth if they adapt to these new economic conditions. Regional cooperation initiatives, such as the "Middle Corridor" project linking Europe and Asia via the Caucasus and the Caspian Sea, provide significant opportunities.

Geopolitical risks remain a double-edged sword. While tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe could disrupt trade, Türkiye’s strategic location continues to attract foreign investments, particularly in infrastructure and logistics.

The Central Bank of Türkiye has also worked to rebuild credibility under Governor Fatih Karahan, emphasizing data-driven decisions. Market participants are cautiously optimistic, though concerns about potential political interference linger. 

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Turkish Banking Sector Outlook and Forecast

The Turkish banking sector is navigating a dynamic economic landscape shaped by recent monetary policy adjustments and evolving macroeconomic indicators. The Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) has initiated a monetary easing cycle, reducing the benchmark interest rate by 250 basis points to 45% in January 2025, following a similar cut in December 2024. This policy shift aims to stimulate economic activity amid a declining inflation trend, with annual inflation decreasing to 44.38% in December 2024.

Despite the reduction in interest rates, the CBT maintains a cautious stance, emphasizing the need for sustained disinflation to achieve a long-term inflation target of 5%. The central bank plans to hold eight monetary policy meetings in 2025, down from twelve in the previous year, indicating a strategic approach to policy adjustments.  

In this context, Turkish banks are expected to experience moderated loan growth, with projections indicating a deceleration to approximately 20% in 2025, down from an estimated 35% in 2024. This slowdown reflects the sector's adaptation to the evolving interest rate environment and the broader economic rebalancing efforts.

Profitability within the banking sector may face challenges due to the lagged effects of previous monetary tightening and the current high-interest-rate environment. Additionally, Turkish banks have requested the implementation of 'inflation-adjusted accounting' for the 2025 tax year to mitigate the impact of high inflation on taxable profits, a move that underscores the sector's proactive approach to maintaining financial stability.  

Overall, the outlook for the Turkish banking sector in 2025 is cautiously optimistic. The sector's resilience is supported by prudent regulatory frameworks and strategic policy measures aimed at fostering economic stability and sustainable growth.

Turkish Lira Forecast - Technical Outlook 

The Turkish Lira continues to struggle against its major counterparts, reaching new lows as pressure from economic and geopolitical factors weighs on the currency. Recently, the USD/TRY surged past the 35.67 mark, reflecting the Lira's persistent weakness against the U.S. Dollar, while the EUR/TRY climbed to approximately 37.04, driven by a strong Euro and mixed Turkish macroeconomic indicators. These moves come as traders respond to technical signals and market sentiment, highlighting the Lira's vulnerability against the most liquid currencies in the forex market. Key resistance and support levels remain critical for short-term price action monitoring. 

US Dollar to Turkish Lira Forecast 

The USD/TRY pair continues to demonstrate a strong bullish trend, driven by sustained upward momentum. This movement is supported by key technical indicators, including moving averages and oscillators, which highlight the strength of the current trend. The exchange rate currently stands at approximately 35.67 Turkish Lira per U.S. Dollar, reflecting ongoing pressure on the Turkish currency. 

Note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. All historical data, including but not limited to returns, volatility, and other performance metrics, should not be construed as a guarantee of future performance.

Key resistance levels are positioned at 35.75 and 36.00, commonly referred to as the "Big Figure," while support levels can be found at 35.64, 35.59, and 35.54. Traders are advised to monitor these levels closely, as a break above the resistance zone could signal the potential for further upside movement. Conversely, a drop below the support levels may indicate a shift in momentum and trigger a potential reversal in the pair’s direction. Additionally, external factors such as economic data releases and central bank policy updates should be considered, as they could significantly impact price action. 

Euro to Turkish Lira Forecast

The EUR/TRY currency pair is trading at approximately 37.40383 Turkish Lira per Euro, reflecting a 1.46% increase over the past five days.

Technical indicators present a mixed outlook. The 21-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 62.45, indicating a neutral to bullish stance. Moving averages provide further insights. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at 36.72264, and the 100-day EMA is at 36.72943, both indicating a buy signal. However, is you trade moving average cross over, it is worthy to note that this is still a bearish cross.

Note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. All historical data, including but not limited to returns, volatility, and other performance metrics, should not be construed as a guarantee of future performance.

Possible support levels are identified under the current price as shown on the chart and at in the short term and 34.4288 in the long term. Resistance levels are at 37.55000, 38.35000 and 38.600 in both the short, mid-term, and long term, while the EUR/TRY pair has shown recent gains, technical indicators are mixed, suggesting caution. Traders should monitor key support and resistance levels and consider multiple indicators before making decisions.   

British Pound Forecast & Price Predictions 2025

Euro to Dollar Forecast & Price Predictions 2025

Turkish Lira Forecast: Can TRY stabilize or it will decline further? 

The Turkish Lira (TRY) has experienced significant volatility in recent years. Various financial institutions have provided the following forecasts for the TRY's performance against the U.S. dollar (USD): 

Bearish Turkish Lira Forecast from S&P Global

S&P Global Ratings has upgraded Turkey's credit rating to 'BB-' with a stable outlook, citing reserve accumulation and disinflation trends. While this indicates improved economic fundamentals, S&P forecasts that inflation will remain high in Turkey, close to 30% in 2025, which could continue to exert pressure on the Turkish Lira. 

Bearish Turkish Lira Forecast from ING

ING anticipates that the Central Bank of Turkey's (CBT) revised inflation projections, which have been adjusted upwards for 2025, will influence the Turkish Lira's trajectory. The CBT's forecast revisions include an increase of 3.5 percentage points due to underlying inflation trends and inertia, 1.9 percentage points from food prices, and 0.5 percentage points from Turkish Lira import prices. These factors suggest potential depreciation pressures on the Lira. 

Turkish Lira Price Predictions from AI-based Websites 

Longforecast.com provides detailed monthly projections for the USD/TRY exchange rate extending into 2028. As of September 2025, they anticipate the exchange rate to begin at 38.91 Liras per USD, reaching a high of 40.30 and a low of 38.91, with an average of 39.46. 

By December 2025, the forecast suggests an opening rate of 39.27 Liras, peaking at 41.06 and bottoming at 39.27, averaging 40.01. The month is expected to close at 40.45 Liras per USD, indicating a 3.0% increase. Progressing to December 2026, the opening rate is projected at 51.85 Liras, with a high of 53.42 and a low of 51.84, averaging 52.44, and closing at 52.63 Liras per USD, marking a 1.5% rise. 

By December 2027, the forecasted opening rate is 61.22 Liras, reaching a high of 64.01 and a low of 61.22, with an average of 62.38, and concluding at 63.06 Liras per USD, reflecting a 3.0% increase. In December 2028, the projection starts at 70.78 Liras, with a high of 73.99 and a low of 70.78, averaging 72.11, and ending at 72.90 Liras per USD, indicating a 3.0% rise. These forecasts suggest a consistent depreciation of the Turkish Lira against the USD over the specified period.

TradingEconomics.com reports that as of January 2025, the Turkish Lira is holding at record low levels of 35.7 per USD. Their global macro models and analyst expectations predict the USD/TRY exchange rate to be 35.43 by the end of the current quarter. Looking ahead, they estimate the rate to reach 36.28 in 12 months, indicating a gradual depreciation of the Lira against the USD over the next year.

WalletInvestor.com provides a long-term forecast for the USD/TRY exchange rate. As of January 23, 2025, the rate stands at 35.659. Their projections indicate a significant increase over the next five years, with the exchange rate expected to reach 76.493 by January 18, 2030. This forecast suggests a potential depreciation of the Turkish Lira by approximately 114.66% over the specified period, highlighting a substantial weakening against the USD. 

Euro - Turkish Lira Forecast  

Forecasts for the EUR/TRY exchange rate in 2025 indicate a potential depreciation of the Turkish Lira against the Euro. According to Longforecast.com, the exchange rate is projected to reach 36.92 Liras per Euro in June 2025, with a high of 37.86 and a low of 36.74. By December 2025, the rate is expected to rise to 39.27 Liras per Euro, peaking at 41.06 and bottoming at 39.27.

WalletInvestor.com provides a similar Turkish Lira forecast, with the EUR/TRY rate at 37.137 as of January 23, 2025. Their long-term forecast anticipates an increase to 79.864 by January 18, 2030, suggesting a significant depreciation of the Turkish Lira over the next five years.

These projections indicate a consistent trend of the Turkish Lira weakening against the Euro throughout 2025 and beyond.

Pound - Turkish Lira Forecast  

Forecasts for the GBP/TRY exchange rate in 2025 suggest a continued depreciation of the Turkish Lira against the British Pound. According to Longforecast.com, the exchange rate is projected to reach 43.95 Liras per Pound in June 2025, with a high of 45.56 and a low of 43.95. By December 2025, the Lira to Pound rate is forecasted to rise to 50.45, peaking at 52.21 and bottoming at 50.45.  

Similarly, 30rates.com forecasts the GBP/TRY rate to be 45.28 Liras per Pound in April 2025, with a maximum of 45.99 and a minimum of 44.63.

These projections indicate a consistent trend of the Turkish Lira weakening against the British Pound throughout 2025. 

Note: When looking for Turkish lira future predictions, it’s important to bear in mind that analysts’ forecasts can be wrong. Analysts’ expectations are based on making a fundamental and technical study of the currency pair’s performance. However, past performance is not a guarantee of future results.  

 

Do your own research and always remember your decision to trade depends on your attitude to risk, your expertise in this market, the spread of your portfolio and how comfortable you feel about losing money. Never trade more money than you can afford to lose. 

Trading the Turkish Lira   

A popular way to trade Turkish Lira on the foreign exchange market is through CFDs. 

A forex CFD is a contract in which you agree to exchange the difference in the price of a currency pair from when you open your position to when you close it. Open a long position, and if the forex position increases in price, you’ll make a profit. If it drops in price, you’ll make a loss. Open a short position, and the opposite is true. 

Forex is just one of the markets you can trade using CFDs. 

Learn more about CFD trading

Our trading platforms can provide you with a smart and fast way to trade forex. You can trade via the NAGA.com platforms in: 

• Your web browser 
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Each of our forex trading platforms can be personalized to suit your trading style and preferences, with personalized alerts, interactive charts, and risk management tools. 

Trading a USD/TRY CFD 

USD/TRY has a Sell price of 18.84560 and a buy price of 18.5972. You think the Turkish Lira will lose value against the US dollar because the Central Bank of Turkey might cut interest rates, so you decide to buy 0,5 standard lots at 18.5972. 

Each contract is equal to 100,000 of the base currency of the pair. In this case, selling a single USD/TRY standard contract is equivalent to trading 100,000 USD for 18,597,200 TRY so your total position is worth 92,986,000 TRY (500,000 USD). 

CFDs are a leveraged product, so you don’t have to put down the full value of your position upfront. A deal of this size on USD/TRY has a margin requirement of 10%, so your margin would be 5% of the total exposure of your trade, which is 25,000 USD. 

If your prediction is correct  The Turkish Lira falls as you predicted. You decide to close your position when the Sell price reaches 20.0000.  To calculate your profit, you multiply the difference between the closing price and the opening price of your position by its size. 20.0000 – 18.5972 = 1.4028 or 14,028 pips, which you multiply by 0.5 CFDs and pip value (0.53 USD) to get a profit of 3712.6914 USD (minus any overnight charges).

If your prediction is wrong  Turkish Lira rises instead. You decide to cut your losses and reverse your trade when the sell price is 18.0000.  Your position has moved 5,972 pips against you, meaning you make a loss of 1,591.8175 (in addition to any overnight charges).

 

Pip value is calculated using the following formula: Pip / Market Price x Lot x Contract Size. Learn more about forex pip calculation.

 

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Sources: 

• 2025Monetarypolicy.pdf (tcmb.gov.tr) 
• Turkish Lira - Quote - Chart - Historical Data - News 
• Turkish central bank likely to end hiking cycle next month | Snap | INGThink
• JPMorgan backs Turkey's lira as key 2024 bet | Nasdaq
• Turkey Stocks, Lira (TRY/USD) Investor Outlook: 2024 Is All About Winning Trust - Bloomberg