Gold Forecast & Price Prediction for Q1 2025: Will the gold rate decrease in the coming days after testing the $2,700 zone?

Gold price today: Gold spot (XAU/USD) rose as much as 25.5% to $2,790 per ounce in 2024, continuing its record-setting trend over recent weeks. With the latest milestone, gold is up by 0.86% since the start of the year and might continue to rise further based on last year's strong gains. 

Clearly, there’s still some gold buying activity associated with the Fed’s decision to begin their easing cycle with a big cut, according to TD Securities. However, it “should not go on forever,” said Commerzbank, citing the expectation for rate cuts of only twice by 25 basis points this year. Still, some analysts said gold could see more upward spikes, even if gold rate could decrease in the coming days following a new all-time high. 

This article provides an in-depth market outlook and gold price predictions for March 2025, and beyond, examining critical market themes and key drivers, as well as valuable insights into price action dynamics, that could play a pivotal role in shaping the precious metal's trajectory.

Gold Forecast & Price Prediction – Key Notes  

• Gold forecast in the coming days and weeks: Although there are expectations for gold rate to decrease in the coming days following the new record, analysts maintain a bullish outlook in general. Gold is forecasted to trade above $2,700 during the first quarter of the year.
• Gold price prediction 2025: While the Fed's upcoming rate cuts may not have an immediate impact on gold's price trajectory, many analysts believe that there is still room for gold prices to rise further in the coming months. Goldman Sachs' forecast a gold price of $2,700 per troy ounce for early 2025, while other experts forecast even bigger price increases for gold in 2025. 
• Gold rate forecast for the next 5 years: The precious metal continues to be seen as a beacon of stability for many investors. Most of the gold rate predictions for the next 5 years point out that the price will trade above $3000.  

With NAGA.com you can trade CFDs on gold spot (XAU/USD), if you want to speculate on price movements, or invest in gold mining stocks or gold mining ETFs.  

 

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Fundamental Gold Forecast Q1 2025

Gold has been one of the best performers among major commodities and assets last year. It has surged more than 25% in 2024, supported by expectations of an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, strong central bank buying and robust Asian purchases.  

Safe haven demand amid heightened geopolitical risks as well as economic uncertainty after the US election in November have also supported gold’s record-breaking rally last year.  

FED rate cuts

The US central bank was widely anticipated to lower interest rates at September’s meeting last year after holding them at a two-decade high for more than a year, but traders were split over how much the first cut would be. Yet, the current outlook remains rather grim: The FOMC is expected to cut rates only twice this year. Strong NFP data from early January also underpinned a strong move. The Fed is in no rush to reduce interest rates for now as the stand of the economy remains solid.

Currently, gold is losing some momentum as investors weighed prospects that the Fed would deploy less rate reductions, which would add no boost to the non-yielding bullion. 

Gold, Treasuries and the S&P 500 Index have all typically risen as the Fed starts lowering rates, according to the past six easing cycles going back to 1989.

Fed’s announcement caps a period of flux in the gold market, as some analysts have pointed to a return to more traditional trading patterns, and in particular to gold’s longstanding tendency to rise and fall in the opposite direction to real yields.

That relationship had broken down in recent years, as gold remained historically elevated even as rates soared — with prices supported instead by huge central bank purchases, as well as surging demand from investors and consumers.

In recent months, there have been signs of Western investors jumping back into the gold market too, as bets mounted that the Fed was about to pivot. It remains to be seen whether this trend is due to continue.

The precious metal is in a bull market; it is likely to move higher according to the latest gold forecasts and price predictions (see the next sections). The speed of that move will depend on the pace at which the Fed will ease its policy.

Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and weigh on the dollar, making gold cheaper for investors holding other currencies.

Following the Fed’s cut, the dollar fell 0.5% - to its lowest since July 2023 against its rivals.

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Interest Rates Forecast 2025

Central bank gold demand picked up last summer

Despite price increases, demand for gold from central banks increased in July 2024. According to figures from the World Gold Council, reported net gold purchases by central banks increased to 37 tons in July, a more than twofold increase. This is the highest monthly total since January 2024, when central bank purchases totaled 45 tons, and it marks a 206% month-over-month increase. This in general was the foundation of the sharp price increase of more than 25%.

The Reserve Bank of India, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan, and the National Bank of Poland were the top three purchasers last year. 

Following a record high of 1,082 tons in 2022, central banks added 1,037 tons of gold in 2023, the second-highest yearly purchase in history. Considering the present economic situation and geopolitical uncertainty, we anticipate that central bank demand will continue to be robust. Yet, geopolitical tensions started to calm for now and a potential cease - fire after Trump will take office might also cause a slight slide in prices. 

China halted buying gold for reserves

Following an 18-month buying spree, China stopped purchasing gold for reserve purposes in May last year when the precious metal reached an initial high. Data released show that the amount of gold held by the People's Bank of China remained steady at 72.80 million troy ounces in May. China did not add gold to reserves until November 2024, when they resumed further purchase action. 

China was the top buyer of gold, and central banks' demand for the metal saw its best start to a year ever in the first quarter. In unstable times, when investors flock to safe-haven assets as a buffer against inflation, geopolitical unrest, or the state of the economy, gold prices tend to increase.  

The People's Bank of China purchased just 60,000 troy ounces of gold in April, compared to 160,000 ounces in March and 390,000 ounces in February. Overall, the Central Bank had added 34tons until the end of 2024 and the slower demand might be also seen as a reason why the bull market is currently taking a breeser.

ETF outfows

There has also been less demand for exchange-traded funds (ETFs) backed by gold. Generally, 2024 marked a substantial outflow into global gold ETFs; negative flows were seen in all regions, with Western funds leading the way in August. This situation is expected to be reversed in 2025 as Mike McGlone from Bloomberg reports.

Gold ETF holdings by investors typically increase in tandem with increases in gold prices. However, as spot gold prices have reached all-time highs, gold ETF holdings have been declining for the whole of 2024. Finally, in May, ETF flows started to increase. With a potential decline in the S&P 500 his year the inflows might resume pace again.

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Upcoming Elections

A number of major general elections will take place around the world in the first half of 2025. In Germany the general election will take place in February and the polls currently don’t offer a clear leader. The right wing AFD is set to increase momentum again, potentially causing fresh uncertainty and hence a rise in gold prices.  

Will the Gold Price Decrease in the Coming Days and Weeks since the FED does not act further?

The Federal Reserve implemented its first interest rate cut in its September 2024 FOMC meeting — and that could have far-reaching implications for various asset classes, including gold. So, what can we expect to happen to the price of gold if the Fed continues to cut rates? That's what we'll break down below.

What will happen to gold prices after the Fed cuts rates?

Historically, interest rates and gold prices have been inversely correlated, with lower rates tending to promote higher gold prices. Thus, many analysts continue to have an optimistic view on gold as the Federal Reserve gets ready to lower interest rates. However, there are many things to consider when predicting the future course of gold prices in this current economic climate.  

To begin with, there's a good likelihood that the market has already partially priced in the anticipated rate cuts. Therefore, the gold rate decreased in the coming day following the initial decision in 2024, before bouncing back to $2,600. A complex network of factors also affects the price of gold; these include forecasts for inflation, the strength of the US dollar, and the prospects for global economic growth.  

But while the Fed's rate cuts may not have an immediate impact on gold's price trajectory, many analysts believe that there is only limited room for gold prices to rise further in the coming months. The pace of rate cuts by the Fed is expected to remain slow for now. Only two rate cuts are currently expected in 2025. The potentially higher borrowing cost would cause the opportunity cost for gold to rather remain high. Most of the investment banks updated their gold forecasts lately, as seen in our dedicated gold price predictions section below.  

These expectations are driven by several factors, one of which is the extraordinary degree of demand for gold by central banks. Global central banks have significantly boosted their gold holdings during the past few years. The conventional relationship between interest rates and gold prices has changed because of this change in central bank action, possibly giving gold prices some volatility time ahead while rates fluctuate.

The price increase is being driven by investors' sustained demand, which is also expected to contribute to future price growth. The price of gold is expected to rise as more investors purchase it to profit from its rising price trend or to take advantage of the numerous other advantages it provides. Another factor not mentioned before could also be a potential slowdown in the economy. 

A significant factor in gold's attraction and likelihood of price growth in the upcoming months is the ongoing geopolitical strife. Gold's reputation as a safe-haven asset is probably going to be strengthened if tensions in the world continue and worries about the amount of debt in the United States increase. As a result, investors looking to diversify their holdings and hedge against future market volatility—both institutional and retail—may become more in demand. Yet if Donald Trump and his team would indeed find ways to de-escalate the war in the Ukraine, this could be another reason for shaky gold prices in the coming weeks. Even the news about such event might cause volatility to increase and gold prices to retrace to lower levels.

Find out more about your gold investing options.  

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Is it Time to Invest in Gold?

Determining whether it's the right time to buy gold or invest in gold assets depends on various factors, including your financial goals, risk tolerance and overall portfolio strategy. For the right investor, though, the current economic climate and market conditions may present an opportune moment to consider gold as part of a diversified investment strategy.  

Gold has, after all, long been used as a hedge against economic uncertainty, inflation, and currency devaluation. Furthermore, the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset may grow as the Federal Reserve prepares to lower interest rates and if there are uncertainties in the global economy. Therefore, according to experts investing a portion of your money in gold could offer some stability and safety if you're worried about future market swings or want to diversify your portfolio.

There appears to be a fundamental shift in the perception of gold as a reserve asset, as seen by the continuous demand from central banks, especially in emerging nations. Gold prices may get long-term support from this increasing institutional demand, which might make it a desirable investment for investors with longer time horizons.

However, it's crucial to approach gold investment with a balanced perspective. While gold can offer portfolio diversification and potential protection against economic downturns, it does not generate income like dividend-paying stocks or interest-bearing bonds. Gold prices can also decrease in the short term, so it's best to view this investment as a longer-term option. 

How to Invest in Gold in 2025

 

With NAGA.com, you can invest in gold in many ways:

Trading GOLD Spot  Spot gold involves the immediate purchase or sale of the precious metal, with the exchange occurring at the precise moment the trade is settled, or ‘on the spot’ price. When engaging in spot gold trading, investors open buy or sell positions at the current market rate, commonly referred to as the spot price.

Trading or Buying Gold ETFs   Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) can help investors track the performance of shares in a collection of publicly traded gold mining, refining, and production companies. Engaging in ETF trading extends investors' exposure and hence helps to diversify their portfolios.

Trading or Buying Gold Stocks  Gold mining companies and gold mining funds are another way to invest in gold. This will enable investors to diversify their portfolio within the gold industry, either trading (going long or short) or buying shares in companies involved in mining and production of gold.

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Technical Gold Forecast Q1 2025

During the last quarter of 2024, prices started a slight push lower, as seemingly profit taking was kicking in. The upward trend had started in the last months of 2023. The gold rate surged to new all-time highs during this upswing, breaching above $2,150, $2,400 and ultimately finding a new record high at $2,790 before decreasing in the coming days to confirm the new major.

The bullish trend remains intact as the market has ever- since remains in positive territory but currently offering a bullish flag.

Momentum favors sideways price action. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in overbought territory and could signal that profit taking might remain on the cards. Therefore, traders should apply caution with fresh buying for now until the least resistance is tilted to the upside.

XAU/USD's first resistance would be $2,695, followed by the technical $2,720 figure. In the event of a further pullback, the first support would be the $2,630 mark, followed by the November 2024 swing low of $2,565. A breach of the latter will expose the August 2024 high, which turned into support at $2,531, before aiming toward the September 2024 low of $2,485.

Should the market resume the recent upside a potential price target could be the all-time-high at $2,790. However, if the gold rate decreases in the coming days following the 2,600-breakout level below the support level ($2,550) will indicate exhaustion and a potential downtrend. Lower levels should then be expected and might also be used for fresh entries into the market.  

Some traders use Fibonacci retracement as additional targets to fine tune their exit strategy. 

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Gold price predictions for 2025 from experts  

Many sources and experts provide gold forecasts and gold price predictions for 2025 based on different models, methods, and assumptions. Despite the average performance in 2024, many investment banks continue to maintain a bullish gold rate forecast for 2025 and the next 5 years. 

However, the central banks continue to bolster their gold reserves, highlighting the enduring appeal of the precious metal. In the following sections, we will discuss the gold forecasts and price predictions from some of the most reputable and influential sources and experts:

• The World Bank predicts an average gold price of $2,050 in 2025.
• Goldman Sachs upgraded their gold price forecast to $3,000 per ounce by the year-end.
• Morgan Stanley predicts Gold Prices to Soar to $2,700 by Q1 2025
• JPMorgan Chase & Co. predicts the gold price to reach $2,850 per ounce in Q4 2025.
• Deutsche Bank forecasts an average gold price of $ 2,725 in 2025
• City Group forecast gold prices to surpass $2,900
• UBS states a gold price of $2,700 by mid 2025
• Commerzbank raised its gold forecast to $2,900 by early 2025.
• ING forecast gold prices to reach $2,700 in 2025.
• TD Securities forecast gold prices to hit $2,700 in the first quarter of 2025.

The World Bank’s Gold Prediction 2025  

The World Bank, one of the key players among central banks and a global financial institution offering loans and grants to developing nations for various projects, recently forecasted an average gold price of $2,050 per ounce in 2025, a decrease from $2,350 per ounce in 2024. This updated 2025 gold price forecast is built on assumptions that the conflict in the Middle East is set to ease, whereas the heightened global uncertainty, with substantial implications to gold prices, might remain on the edge. “Although the initial impact has so far been moderate, potential chances that the FED will only continue to cut rates twice this year will cause opportunity cost to remain high for the shining metal, which would lead to a moderate risk appetite as well as lower consumer and investor confidence. These developments could lead to a decline in gold prices”.

The World Bank's gold price prediction 2025 states that “Prices are forecast to remain elevated but decline gradually to average around $2,050 an ounce in 2025 and $2,250 in 2026”. 

Goldman Sachs’s Gold Prediction 2025

Goldman Sachs noted that gold’s relative stability after several stronger-than-expected US CPI prints was yet another demonstration that the metal’s bull market is not being driven by the usual macro suspects. This, along with other factors, has led to Goldman Sachs' decision to raise its forecast for gold prices even further.

It’s seen that most of the gold upside since mid-2022 has been driven by new incremental (physical) factors, not least a significant acceleration in emerging markets Central Bank accumulation as well as Asian retail buying.  

Those factors remain well affirmed by current macro policy and geopolitics, according to Goldman Sachs. ETF inflows are expected to rise this year again after some time, though only some rate cuts are expected in 2025 the Bank believes that prices will rise again. Potential support might come from the uncertainty in regard to newly elected President Donald Trump in the US. Economic and rather protective policies might add to uncertainty and hence boost the price in gold. Central bank buying would also remain intact, which is acting as a support here. 

From the rebased price level, and with the firm seeing positive price factors still playing out ahead, they upgraded their gold price forecast to $3,000 per ounce by the year-end compared to the previous expectation of $2,500 per ounce.    

Morgan Stanley's Gold Rate Forecast 2025

Gold prices are set to remain at current levels according to Morgan Stanley. This rather sideways gold forecast comes as XAU/USD has already risen 50% from its 2022 lows and 25% since mid-February last year, positioning the precious metal for a strong finish last year. Profit taking and geopolitical uncertainty might also play a role here.

Morgan Stanley’s gold forecast underscores the complex dynamics at play in the gold market. Potentially slowing Central bank purchases, retail and institutional investment, and global economic factors are all contributing to the forecast for gold. As global turmoil continues and economic uncertainties persist, gold's role as a safe-haven asset is likely to remain in place with a price above $2,650 per ounce in the first quarter of 2025. 

JP Morgan’s Gold Rate Prediction 2025

With the recently strong bull case for gold now turning moderate, JPMorgan Chase & Co has adjusted its gold price prediction for 2025. Gold prices are forecasted to potentially climb to $3,000/oz by the end of 2025, according to J.P. Morgan Research estimates. However, prices are expected to remain at around the $ 2,600 level for the most part in general. Since the cutting cycle of the FED is in place but rather remains slow also the strength of the Dollar might play a role here.

According to JP Morgan, the direction of travel remains high in the coming quarters, forecasting an average price of $3,000/oz in the fourth quarter of 2025 but remaining at $2,600/oz in 2025, with risk still skewed towards higher levels.

Gold price predictions are based on J.P. Morgan economic forecasts, which have U.S. core inflation moderating to 3.5% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025. 

Deutsche Bank Gold Price Prediction 2025

Deutsche Bank, a German bank providing various banking and financial services to retail, private, and corporate clients, said that the current global economic situation will still cause gold prices to remain at high levels. Prices are set to remain at $ 2,600 per ounce in 2025 with the high being hit at $2,800 in December this year. Currently geopolitical tensions as well as uncertainty in the geopolitical landscape plays its role as a safe-haven asset.

In the scenario of a full tariff implementation, they expect in the first years of the of the presidential term inflation to increase, the FED to keep rates high and the USD to rally because monetary policy divergence and weakness elsewhere. This would also be in- line with recent statements of the US Central bank. They are going to rather cut rates twice this year as per their expectation.

Citigroup’s Gold Rate Prediction 2025

Citigroup forecasts that gold price is set to hit $3,000 per ounce due to significant expansion in financial flows.

The Bank is expecting that Central Bank purchases are going to remain solid and hence also drive prices. Furthermore, geopolitical uncertainties are expected to remain in place. As the labor market remains strong, the FED is not expected to rush in cutting rates. This in turn might cause setbacks for the economy and hence drive the safe- haven asset. The report attributes this bullish gold price prediction to the weakening US labor market, disinflation, and the Federal Reserve’s dovish pivot. The three-month outlook remains bullish and according to Reuters has been set to $2,800. 

UBS’s Gold Rate Forecast 2025

UBS has set its gold price forecasts, citing strong structural support and resilient demand for the yellow metal.

The investment bank now expects gold prices to rise to $2,900 in 2025. By March 2025 the bank expects the price to reach $ 2,850. Despite a long- term easing the robust outlook remains in place causing the precious metal to rise further.

Central bank buying and geopolitical uncertainties are likely to remain a key driver of prices. Also, setbacks in the economy might be a factor, which keeps driving prices to higher levels.  

UBS also said that the incoming US President is likely to cause the budget deficit to widen, which would act as a catalyst to widen the US fiscal deficit and hence could serve as a further catalyst for higher gold prices in the second half of 2025.

Commerzbank’s Gold Prediction 2025

Commerzbank raised the forecast for Gold to $2,600 per troy ounce by mid-2025.

The bank states that they expect several rate cuts to drive the price of Gold as well as potential interest rate cuts.

The bank forecasts the gold price to rise further to remain at $2,600 by the middle of next year. However, prices are expected to hover around $ 2,700 in 2025. Prices are expected to move by sustained Central bank buying as well as economic uncertainties.

ING’s Gold Rate Forecast 2025 

The Dutch bank believes that the Fed will continue to cut rates, which will drive gold to new highs. The incoming US President will also continue to add to gold's upward momentum through to the end of the year.

Geopolitics will also remain one of the key factors driving gold prices in their view. The war in Ukraine and the Middle East and tensions between the US and China suggest that safe-haven demand will continue to support gold prices in the short to medium term. Central banks are also expected to keep adding to their holdings, which had also been the case throughout 2024. Regardless of the political outcome of several elections the bank believes that prices will rather be driven by rate cuts and the war in the Ukraine. 

They now forecast gold averaging $3,000 in the fourth quarter. The upward momentum will continue also based on recent forecasts from 2024.

TD Securities' Gold Price Prediction 2025

TD Securities forecast has been amended. They now believe that the price will show an average of $ 2,700 per ounce in 2025. Higher inflation, with the incoming President in the US, Donald Trump, is expected to drive prices. Furthermore, also continued Central Bank buying is not expected to slow demand. Geopolitical factors such as the tensions with China and Iran will also play a role. Gold in general is being seen as positive this year. 

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Other Gold price predictions for 2025 (AI-Based) 

Although there is still potential for the price of the precious metal to decline after reaching all-time-highs recently, agencies and AI-based websites are still optimistic that prices would offer potential to rise towards $2,800 per ounce by the end of this year as Google’s Gemini predicts for example.

Wallet Investor - Neutral Gold price prediction 2025 Wallet Investor forecasts that gold prices will continue to rise through 2025. As of January 15, 2025, they project the price per ounce to be approximately $2,696.10. Looking further ahead, they anticipate a long-term increase, with the price reaching around $3,709.34 by January 11, 2030, suggesting a potential 36.97% return over five years.

Coin Price Forecast - Bullish gold price prediction 2025 According to Coin Price Forecast, gold is expected to reach $2,820 by the end of 2025, indicating a 7% increase from the beginning of the year. They also project that gold will hit $3,000 by mid-2026 and $3,500 by the end of 2027.

Long Forecast - Bullish gold price prediction 2025 According to Longforecast.com, gold prices are projected to experience significant growth over the next few years. As of January 2025, the price per ounce is expected to be approximately $2,639, with potential highs reaching $2,905 and lows around $2,535. This upward trend is anticipated to continue, with prices potentially exceeding $3,000 by mid-2025 and reaching approximately $3,792 by December 2026. By 2028, forecasts suggest that gold prices could approach $4,000 per ounce.

Trading Economics - Neutral to bullish gold rate forecast 2025 Trading Economics forecasts that gold will trade at approximately $2,759 per troy ounce by the end of 2025. This projection is based on their global macro models and analyst expectations.

Gold price prediction for the next 5 years 

Though it is hard to say for sure for such a long period of time, experts from different resources concur that gold will continue rising. However, they have opposite opinions about the speed of this growth. The recent momentum from 2024 might lead to a slowdown, which occurs in most strong trends over time.

What is the gold price prediction for the next 5 years? See below the forecaster's projections for gold prices in the 5 years approximately. 

Gold Price Prediction for the next 5 years from Long Forecast  The Economy Forecast Agency provides a gold price prediction only till the end of 2029. The 2025 Gold price prediction is a trading range between 2,535 and 3,892. Gold might hit $ 4,000 by the end of 2029 according to them.

Gold price forecast for the next 5 years from Wallet Investor Wallet Investor offers a gold price forecast until December 2029. The closing price of 2025 will be $3,7921. 2026 they believe that gold will trade between $3,587 and $3,996. While the market might finish at $3,549 in 2028 the price is expected to reach $4,000 in 2029.

Gold Price Prediction 2025-2030 from Coin Price Forecast  According to the latest long-term forecast, gold price will hit $3,500 within the year of 2026. By the year 2030 they expect the price to peak at $ 5,085 whereas the range in 2030 should be between $4,920 and $ 5,085.

*It is worth keeping in mind that both analysts and online forecasting sites can and do get their predictions wrong. Keep in mind that past performance and forecasts are not reliable indicators of future returns. 

 

When considering gold price predictions for 2025 and beyond, it’s important to keep in mind that high market volatility and the macroeconomic environment make it difficult to produce accurate long-term gold analysis and estimates. As such, analysts and forecasters can get their gold forecast wrong.   

What moves the price of gold in the future?

Unlike almost any other asset, gold is typically neither a safety nor a risk asset, though the popular financial media have often called it both over the years (depending on how gold has been performing in recent months). Instead, it’s a currency hedge for which demand rises when there are concerns about inflation diluting the purchasing power of fiat currencies (particularly those most widely held, like the USD and EUR). In other words: 

1. In times of optimism (aka risk appetite), gold can either appreciate if markets believe growth will lead to inflation, or it can fall if the desire for higher yields overrides inflation concerns and investors move into more classic risk assets which they believe will provide better returns.
2. In times of pessimism (aka risk aversion), gold can either rise if markets believe that stalling growth will lead to rising deficits and/or money printing that could cause inflation, or it can also fall on fears of deflation or a market crash that feeds demand for cash. In times of panic, traders seek cash either to cover margin calls or other obligations or to be ready to go bargain hunting.    
   
   If pessimism turns to panic, then gold could either:    
   – rise if markets are more concerned about the USD or EUR losing their purchasing power than about near-term liquidity needs, as was the case at times from 2009 through 2011.    
   – fall if markets are more concerned about liquidity than the loss of purchasing power, as was the case in late 2011. 

When markets are not concerned about fading purchasing power, the major currencies tend to gain against gold. That can happen due to: 

• Low inflation expectations, as we saw starting in late 2011. Concerns about the global economy kept inflation fears low, and so gold began a multi-month downtrend. 
• Panic periods are when markets fear a financial crisis, and liquidity becomes the top priority. We saw gold sell-off during times of peak anxiety about the US or EU. During these periods, investors tend to sell gold to raise cash. 

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How has the price of Gold changed over time? 

Below is a Gold chart that shows how the price of gold changed over the past ten years. In order to make your predictions and forecasts as accurate as possible, it’s important to look back at such historical data.   

One of the biggest drivers of gold is currency values. Because gold is denominated in dollars, USD can have a significant impact on the price of gold. A weaker dollar makes gold relatively less expensive for foreign buyers and may lift prices. On the other hand, a stronger dollar makes gold relatively more expensive for foreign buyers, thus possibly lowering prices.

Gold Price in 2019

The price at the beginning of 2019 was $1,413.75. Though it fell insignificantly in April to $1,353.26, it continued going up till August and became $1,601.35. However, in November, the price lowered to $1,524.80. The reason for this was the falling gold demand in India. Actually, it fell to its lowest level in three years. The World Gold Council (WGC) explained that this was due to domestic prices climbing to a record against a backdrop of falling earnings in rural areas.

Gold Price in 2020

The price was able to recover and rose up to $2,063.56 in August 2020. This peak hasn’t been reached again yet. The coronavirus pandemic and the unprecedented flow of money supply by government stimulus triggered sharp buying in the bullion metal in both domestic and global markets in 2020. 

The price didn’t manage to maintain this high and fell to $1,840.38 in November 2020. Pfizer was the main reason. The US-based pharmaceutical corporation announced the COVID-19 vaccine news. They made a surprising announcement regarding the status of their coronavirus vaccine trial.

Gold Price in 2021

The price managed to recover a little bit, but that didn’t save it from another fall in March 2021 - it fell to $1,742.68 as the dollar strengthened after the jump in US private-sector jobs. “Gold looked as if it was topping out,” Ross Norman, Chief Executive Officer at Metals Daily, said. “Some profit-taking exacerbated the decline, and gold will rebuild from here.” He was right - in May 2021, the price became $1,904.76. Little did he know that the price would again go down, reaching $1,771.60 because of problems with the coronavirus in India. 

There were no sharp ups or downs during summer. The first month of Fall 2021 ended with a price decline to $1,726.11 per ounce. The next seven weeks showed a strong recovery – up to $1,866.96. This happened due to the investor's rush into safe-haven assets. A stronger dollar and the Fed policy led to the following sharp decline. However, the situation changed in December when the bulls took the trend. 

Gold Price in 2022

Between the end of January 2022 and the 8th of March 2022, gold had a 16% gain, trying to surpass its previous record high of $2075 per ounce set in August 2020 because of the conflict in Ukraine that increased geopolitical tensions and market risk aversion. 

Midway through March 2022, the Fed announced its first interest rate increase of the year, and gold started to flex lower. The downward trend in gold prices continued through the summer and into Q3 when Fed Chair Jerome Powell quickened the pace of rises.  Amid a dollar rally and rising Treasury yields, gold plummeted 22% from its March highs to September lows at 1,615/oz. 

After reaching a so-called technical "triple bottom" in the months of September, October, and November, gold started to rise by 12% by the end of December. 

Overall, gold's performance in 2022 was inconsistent when compared to that of other important metals. Copper (-14%) and palladium (-4.2%) were outperformed by the yellow metal, but they lagged silver (+4.5%) and platinum (+4.6%). 

Gold Price in 2023

May 2023 saw gold prices rise to almost record levels, with a peak at $2,067, a level not seen since March 2022. The ongoing talks over the US debt ceiling served as fuel for the most recent spike. The US economy could run out of cash as early as the beginning of June, according to Janet Yellen, the Treasury Secretary.

However, prices have fallen more than 11% from their May highs above $2,000 an ounce as the FED's hawkish outlook has pushed long-term bond yields to their highest level in 16 years.

After wild swings, gold showed a strong rebound in Q4 2023 and hit an all-time high, amid geopolitical conflicts and economic uncertainty.  

Gold Price in 2024

The precious metal has been on an impressive bull run since the start of 2024, with its value reaching new record highs multiple times so far that year. This trend began in early March, with gold prices surging to $2,160 per ounce, up 8% compared to the previous record in December 2023. 

That record was quickly surpassed by subsequent peaks in April, May, August, to hit an all-time-high of 2.790$ per ounce in October last year. With the latest milestone, gold was up more than 25,5% since the start of the year an even outperformed the strong momentum in the S&P500.

Conclusion: Is Gold a good investment for 2025 and beyond? 

Drawing from these expert insights, they anticipate a slight uptick in gold prices also this year in general. The average cost could hover around $2,600 per ounce by year’s end. However, it’s crucial to note that this remains a forecast. Things can change, and there’s always a level of uncertainty.  

For potential gold investors, experts from Morgan Stanley, among others, recommend some gold in a well-balanced, conservative portfolio to protect against inflation diluting the purchasing power of fiat currencies and geopolitical factors. But before you invest in gold, do your homework. Understand the risks and costs of buying and selling gold. And keep a close eye on market trends and conditions. 

To sum up: experts can make educated gold forecasts and price predictions, but as with any investment, there's no 100% guarantee. 

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Sources:

• https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-outlook-2024   
• https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/literature/whitepaper/bii-global-outlook-in-charts.pdf   
• https://www.wisdomtree.eu/-/media/eu-media-files/other-documents/research/market-outlook/wisdomtree-gold-outlook-q2-2024.pdf   
• https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/gold-prices   
• https://www.franklintempleton.com/forms-literature/download/132-QCPLT  
• https://www.forexlive.com/news/ubs-sees-gold-extending-gains-into-2025-forecasts-2900oz-price-target-20241218