NASDAQ 100 Forecast & Price Predictions 2025: Can the party keep going?

The NASDAQ-100 is trading above 22,000 at mid-Q1, continuing its solid uptrend started in 2023. The technology sector navigated headwinds like high inflation, elevated interest rates, and considerable macroeconomic and global uncertainties in the last two years.

At mid-decade, the tech sector appears positioned for growth, according to the latest NASDAQ-100 forecasts for 2025 and the next 5 years. Some analysts project that global IT spending will grow by 9.3% in 2025, with data center and software segments expected to grow at double-digit rates. Worldwide spending on AI is anticipated to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 29% from 2024 to 2028.

However, as generative AI moves from pilots to production deployments and global developments reveal new areas of risk and opportunity, experts and big banks updated their NASDAQ-100 forecasts and price predictions for 2025.

NASDAQ-100 Forecast & Price Predictions Summary  

• Nasdaq-100 forecast today: While 23,000 seems like the most likely target during the first quarter, a fail to keep the all-time-highs above 22,100 could generate a sell-off towards 20,000 points.
• Nasdaq-100 price predictions 2025: While there are growth expectations fueled by advancements in technology, especially AI, and ongoing economic expansion, the optimism is moderated by concerns over persistent inflation, potential interest rate increases, and the risk of an economic slowdown. The institutional NASDAQ 100 forecasts for 2025 are averaging a maximum 5-10% price increase.
• Nasdaq-100 forecast for the next 5 years: AI has become the hottest word on Wall Street since 2023 and will remain a megatrend that won’t be going away anytime soon according to experts from IBM. The five-year projection showed the index above 30,000.

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Fundamental Nasdaq-100 Forecast Q1 2025

The year 2024 proved to be another strong one for the technology sector. Despite some unevenness, tech is poised to finish 2025 among the top-performing sectors. According to analysts, another strong year of growth should be driven by a couple of key factors:

More AI adoption

In the first half of 2024, the tech sector experienced a surge driven by GenAI, yet recent months have seen some investors questioning when true economic value will emerge. While investments funds like Franklin Templeton remain optimistic about AI's long-term potential, history shows that foundational technologies often require years to realize their full impact, as seen with mobile and cloud computing in the late 2000s and 2010s. Businesses face several challenges in maximizing AI value, such as modernizing IT infrastructure, ensuring data security, hiring qualified talent, and allocating sufficient budgets and time.

Despite these hurdles, software companies focused on enhancing digital workflows have been actively developing AI capabilities throughout 2024, a trend expected to continue into 2025, according to the fund's 2025 technology outlook. They are witnessing significant advancements, particularly with AI "agents" that can perform tasks like analyzing customer data for personalized marketing or assisting with home management. As large language models (LLMs) improve their problem-solving abilities, analysts anticipate a quicker adoption of AI-driven applications in both professional and personal settings in 2025, leading to a broader range of beneficiaries in the software and consumer internet sectors compared to 2024.

Improving earnings growth

The "Magnificent Seven" tech companies excelled in earnings growth last year, but the rest of the tech sector may catch up in 2025. Several factors could drive this change, including a broader range of companies benefiting from AI.

In 2024, some tech areas faced challenges like tight IT budgets due to economic uncertainties. As these issues fade in 2025, overall tech sector growth could accelerate.

The resolution of the US election might also boost corporate IT spending, while stabilization in markets like automotive and smartphones could further support growth in the tech sector.

Valuation remains reasonable

Tech stocks have done well for the last couple of years, and some people are worried they might be overpriced. However, analysts at Franklin Templeton believe that the price you pay for a stock should make sense based on how fast the company is growing, and right now, tech stock prices are only a little higher than their average. So, even though tech stocks have gone up a lot recently, they still think they're a good investment because the tech industry is expected to grow a lot and has strong qualities.

Analysts are enthusiastic about the future growth of technology. There will probably be ups and downs, but they believe that investors who are willing to be patient will see great returns in the long run, though forecasting a bullish US-Tech 100 for the next 5 years.

Compelling dynamics for semiconductors

While certain semiconductor stocks, particularly those associated with AI like NVIDIA, have seen significant gains, other chip manufacturers serving broader markets have lagged due to oversupply issues. This divergence is due to the industry's response to pandemic-related shortages, which led to a surge in production and subsequent oversupply.

However, the coming year may hold potential for these "non-AI-winner" chip makers as oversupply dynamics are expected to resolve. A possible catalyst could be an AI-driven product upgrade cycle, coupled with a boost from a better economic environment, which may be aided by lower interest rates. The rising electronic content in sectors like automobiles, turning them into "smartphones on wheels," could further drive chip sales for auto companies, outpacing overall auto sales growth.

Technical NASDAQ-100 Forecast Q1 2025 

After trading sideways for eight weeks as part of a correction from the 22,133-record high of mid-December, the Nasdaq 100 hit a fresh record high on Friday 14. As we have noted previously in our last NASDAQ-100 forecast and price prediction update for Q4 2024, a sustained break above resistance at 22,000 - 22,200 would confirm that the correction is complete and that the uptrend has resumed, targeting a move towards 23,000.

Conversely, while the Nasdaq 100 remains below the 22,000 - 22,200 resistance level, further evidence is required, and it leaves the correction open to another leg lower towards 20,500 with scope into the 20,000 - 19,800 critical support area.

Note that according to the Wyckoff distribution laws, the failure to confirm the new highs at this level might signal the start of the distribution phase. This phase displays rangebound price action like the accumulation phase but marked by smart money taking profits and heading to the sidelines.

In turn, this leaves the security in weak hands that are forced to sell when the range fails in a breakdown and new markdown phase. This bearish period generates throwbacks to new resistance that can be used to establish timely short sales. 

Institutional NASDAQ-100 forecast 2025 

While some analysts point to the resilience of companies and the market's capacity to handle challenges, others caution about the uncertainty in the economic outlook and possible volatility. Overall, there is a positive NASDAQ-100 forecast 2025, accompanied by advice to closely monitor critical factors such as AI progress, interest rates, and economic indicators.

Fitch Ratings – Neutral NASDAQ-100

In their US Technology Outlook for 2025, Fitch Ratings has a neutral 2025 NASDAQ-100 forecast, with neutral outlooks across all three subsectors in technology industries including Semiconductors, Software and Cloud Services, and IT Distributors and Hardware.

Fitch forecasts AI infrastructure investments and the PC refresh cycle to drive mid-single-digits semiconductor subsector growth. Slowing end-demand for automotive and pockets of excess inventory in industrials remain. Credit metrics for the semiconductor subsector should strengthen, supported by higher revenue levels and strengthening free cash flow.

In the software and cloud services subsector, Fitch forecasts industry momentum to remain soft into early 2025 and strengthen into 2H25. In aggregate for 2025, revenue growth should remain in the high single digits, consistent with 2024 levels. Enterprise IT spending is being prioritized with elevated AI investments. In the absence of large debt-funded acquisitions, Fitch expects financial leverage to decline.

For IT Distributors and Hardware, Fitch forecasts FCF to remain stable and balance sheets to remain healthy. The PC refresh cycle and AI infrastructure investments should provide meaningful tailwinds in 2025. IT services issuers could face ongoing organic revenue growth headwinds in spite of enterprise spending that should strengthen data optimization efforts ahead of AI adoption.

Bank of America: bullish NASDAQ-100 forecast for 2025

Bank of America maintains a bullish outlook on the NASDAQ-100 for 2025. They argue that companies have shown resilience in adapting to higher interest rates and inflation, while the market has already absorbed major geopolitical shocks, reducing uncertainty. Even if a recession occurs, they believe its impact on stock prices will be limited, as investors have largely priced it in.

Additionally, they anticipate strong earnings growth, particularly in the AI sector, driving further gains. However, they caution that a more challenging macroeconomic environment, softening consumer trends, and high valuations could create a less exciting outlook moving forward.

JPMorgan: bearish stock market in 2025

In 2025, global equity markets could face an environment characterized by several cross-currents, according to JP Morgan's 2025 Market Outlook. 

“The central equity theme for next year is one of higher dispersion across stocks, styles, sectors, countries and themes. This should improve the opportunity set and provide a healthier backdrop for the active management industry after consecutive quarters of record narrow and unhealthy equity leadership”, commented the bank, which is forecasting the US stock market to lose 9% this year.

Morgan Stanley: neutral to bullish NASDAQ-100 price prediction

To say artificial intelligence has been a transformative force in industries, economies and consumers’ daily lives would be an understatement, according to Morgan Stanley's 2025 Investment Themes released at the beginning of the year. In just two years, since the launch of ChatGPT, we’ve seen generative AI transform creative industries, education and retail. AI also carries the potential, via humanoid robots, to transform manufacturing and healthcare, and has wide-reaching implications for the workforce and the broader economy.

Among other developments that support the bullish tech index forecast, 2025 is likely to see profound growth in agentic AI. In this next phase of AI development, software programs gain "agency” by acting and adapting without explicit human instruction, which could have profound implications for autonomous vehicles, healthcare assistants and cybersecurity.

Goldman Sachs: neutral NASDAQ-100 price forecast

Goldman Sachs forecast the NASDAQ-100's magnificent 7 tech stocks are expected to continue to outperform the rest of the index next year — but by only about 7 percentage points, the slimmest such margin in seven years.

The superior earnings growth of the Magnificent 7 has driven the collective outperformance of these stocks compared with the balance of the S&P 500 index. But consensus expectations predict the gap in earnings growth between the Magnificent 7 and the S&P 493 will narrow from an estimated 30 percentage points this year, to 6 percentage points in 2025, and to 4 percentage points in 2026.

Societe Generale: neutral NASDAQ-100 price forecast

Société Générale takes a neutral stance, expecting a mild recession in mid-2025 and a potential credit market sell-off. Despite these risks, they believe the NASDAQ-100 will remain attractive for long-term investors, as profit indicators continue to improve.

However, they anticipate a volatile journey toward the end of the year, as the market navigates economic challenges and ongoing quantitative tightening.

Wells Fargo: neutral NASDAQ-100 price forecast

Wells Fargo also adopts a neutral position, emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook, particularly regarding inflation and interest rates. While they acknowledge improving profit indicators, they highlight the potential obstacles that could slow growth.

As a result, they recommend a cautious investment approach, advising traders to closely monitor economic data and adjust strategies accordingly.

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NASDAQ 100 Forecast - Key Drivers to Watch 

Some of the specific themes Wall Street analysts see playing a critical role in 2024 and beyond include: 

Risk management The tech industry faces rising risks from cyber threats targeting valuable data, geopolitical instability impacting supply chains, and climate change disrupting operations. The rapid adoption of AI, often with inadequate security, further exacerbates these vulnerabilities.	Gen AI The next advance in software development may involve autonomous gen AI agents that are able to complete complex tasks with minimal human oversight. Gen AI isn’t just transforming software creation; it’s poised to revamp the nature of software user interfaces—from forms and fields and point-and-click to conversational experiences.
Private cloud  Companies investing in data-heavy GenAI will need to control cloud costs, ensure data security, and meet regulations, especially when GenAI models use sensitive data for training. This could lead businesses to reconsider private clouds. Tech providers should offer simple hybrid cloud solutions as companies reassess their cloud strategies.	Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) Businesses are seeking comprehensive solutions that meet diverse priorities, facing challenges like integrating complex multicloud infrastructures and supporting specialized processes with custom apps. To address rapidly changing customer needs, tech leaders expect a rise in high-value deals, including acquisitions, and are exploring alternatives like joint ventures and strategic partnerships to provide more robust solutions.
Tax and regulatory changes In 2025, the tech industry will encounter challenges due to new global tax regulations, including minimum tax requirements and e-invoicing rules aimed at enhancing transparency and reducing tax evasion. Multinational tech firms will need to upgrade their enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems for better transaction recording and reporting. Additionally, companies reporting sales in a country must comply with local privacy and content regulations, highlighting the need for improved data governance.

 

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Nasdaq-100 Price Predictions for 2025 (AI-based) 

The Nasdaq 100 forecast for 2025 from algorithm-based forecasting service Wallet Investor at the time of writing indicated that the index could close Q1 2025 at 22,300. The service’s Nasdaq 100 forecast for 2025 estimated that the index could climb to a maximum of 24,000 and end the year close to this level. Wallet Investor’s five-year projection showed the index at 34,000 points, indicating a bullish Nasdaq 100 forecast for 2030 at new all-time highs.

The Nasdaq 100 price prediction from Long Forecast Agency is very bullish, predicting that the index could close Q1 2025 at 24,000 and trade close to 30,000 points by the end of 2025. The NASDAQ 5-year forecast is bullish, with the Tech index expected to trade as high as 40,000 points.

A US100 forecast from Trading Economics estimated that the index could be priced at 21182 by the end of this quarter and at 20317 in one year.

The NASDAQ 100 Futures forecast from Gov Capital is the most bullish, with prices expected to trade above 25,000 points at the end of 2025. The NASDAQ 100 5-year forecast is also bullish, with price predictions above 40,000 points.

Nasdaq-100 Price Predictions by Components (Top 10)

NASDAQ-100 price predictions are based on its components' price predictions which we'll review below. The list includes 10 components sorted by each component's weight in the index. 

Microsoft Corp (13.25%)  The 41 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Nasdaq 100 component Microsoft Corp have a median target of $510, with a high estimate of $600 and a low estimate of $425. The median estimate represents a +23% increase from the mid-Q1 prices. The current consensus among 49 polled investment analysts is to buy stock in Microsoft Corp. This rating has held steady since February, when it was unchanged from a buy rating.	Apple Inc (12.51%)  The 37 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Nasdaq 100 component Apple Inc have a median target of 250, with a high estimate of $325 and a low estimate of $188. The median estimate represents a +2% increase from the mid-Q1 prices. The current consensus among 41 polled investment analysts is to buy stock in Apple Inc. This rating has held steady since February, when it was unchanged from a buy rating.
Amazon (6.69%)  The 54 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Nasdaq 100 component Amazon have a median target of $269, with a high estimate of $250 and a low estimate of $200. The median estimate represents a 18% increase from the mid-Q1 prices. The current consensus among 54 polled investment analysts is to buy stock in Amazon.com Inc. This rating has held steady since February, when it was unchanged from a buy rating.	Nvidia (5.62%)  The 40 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Nasdaq 100 component NVIDIA Corp have a median target of $179, with a high estimate of $220 and a low estimate of $135. The median estimate represents a +28% increase from the mid-Q1 prices. The current consensus among 46 polled investment analysts is to buy stock in NVIDIA Corp. This rating has held steady since February, when it was unchanged from a buy rating.
Alphabet (4.13%)  The 46 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Nasdaq 100 component Alphabet Inc have a median target of $220, with a high estimate of $234 and a low estimate of $205. The median estimate represents a +22% increase from the mid-Q1 prices. The current consensus among 51 polled investment analysts is to buy stock in Alphabet Inc. This rating has held steady since February, when it was unchanged from a buy rating.	META (3.98%)  The 51 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Nasdaq 100 component Meta Platforms Inc have a median target of $764, with a high estimate of $935 and a low estimate of $610. The median estimate represents a 15% increase from the mid-Q1 prices. The current consensus among 59 polled investment analysts is to buy stock in Meta Platforms Inc. This rating has held steady since February, when it was unchanged from a buy rating.
Tesla (3.20%)  The 35 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Nasdaq 100 component Tesla Inc have a median target of $412, with a high estimate of $1000 and a low estimate of $235. The median estimate represents a +16% decrease from the mid-Q1 prices. The current consensus among 47 polled investment analysts is to hold stock in Tesla Inc. This rating has held steady since February, when it was unchanged from a hold rating.	Broadcom Inc (2.07%)  The 22 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Nasdaq 100 component Broadcom Inc have a median target of $250, with a high estimate of $300.00 and a low estimate of $210. The median estimate represents a 9% increase from the mid-Q1 prices. The current consensus among 27 polled investment analysts is to buy stock in Broadcom Inc. This rating has held steady since February, when it was unchanged from a buy rating.
Pepsico (1.92%)  The 17 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Nasdaq 100 component PepsiCo Inc have a median target of $165, with a high estimate of $185 and a low estimate of $124. The median estimate represents a +15% increase from the mid-Q1 prices.  The current consensus among 23 polled investment analysts is to hold stock in PepsiCo Inc. This rating has held steady since February, when it was unchanged from a hold rating.	Costco (1.60%)  The 17 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Nasdaq 100 component Costco Wholesale Corp have a median target of $1,200, with a high estimate of $1,7500 and a low estimate of $900. The median estimate represents a +2% increase from the mid-Q1 prices The current consensus among 35 polled investment analysts is to buy stock in Costco Wholesale Corp. This rating has held steady since February, when it was unchanged from a buy rating.

 

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*It is worth keeping in mind that both analysts and online forecasting sites can and do get their predictions wrong. Keep in mind that past performance and forecasts are not reliable indicators of future returns. When considering Nasdaq 100 price predictions for 2023 and beyond, it’s important to keep in mind that high market volatility and the macroeconomic environment make it difficult to produce accurate long-term Nasdaq 100 analyses and estimates. As such, analysts and forecasters can get their Nasdaq 100 forecast wrong.  

It is essential to do your research and always remember your decision to trade depends on your attitude to risk, your expertise in the market, the spread of your investment portfolio, and how comfortable you feel about losing money. You should never invest money that you cannot afford to lose. 

How can you trade or invest in the NASDAQ 100? 

With NAGA.com, there are a number of ways to gain exposure to the NASDAQ 100 (known on our platform as the Nasdaq-100 Cash Index) – so you can choose the one that suits you best. 

Trade the NASDAQ 100 index directly With NAGA.com you can trade Nasdaq-100 (Nasdaq) Cash Index Sun-Fri: 23:01-21:10 with tight spreads starting from 4.2 point  and leverage as high as 1:20.

Trade or invest in NASDAQ-100 ETFs With NAGA.com you can trade the largest NASDAQ-100 Index ETFs, inverse and leveraged ETFs, tech and robotics ETFs, cybersecurity ETFs or AI ETFs.

Trade or invest in NASDAQ-100 stocks With NAGA.com you can buy tech stocks outright or you can trade on their price movements without having to take ownership of shares, through CFDs.

 

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Trade the NASDAQ 100 index directly 

Trade the performance of the USA’s largest domestic and international companies from a single position. You can trade the NASDAQ 100’s price directly on the NAGA.com platform under the name ‘US Tech 100’. In other words, you’ll get direct exposure to the NASDAQ 100 index with us. It’s more liquid than trading it in other ways and you can trade it 24 hours a day, Monday to Friday.

You can trade the NASDAQ 100 on leverage using CFDs, without having to own any actual shares. Instead, you’ll put down a deposit to open a larger position, with profits and losses calculated on the full position size. This means your profits and losses can significantly outweigh your margin amount, so ensure you use risk management tools (like stop losses) when trading online. 

You can go ‘long’ if you think the price will rise or ‘short’ if you think the price will fall. 

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Trade or invest in NASDAQ 100 ETFs 

Gain broad exposure to the entire NASDAQ 100 by trading or investing in an ETF that tracks the price of the index. This means you won’t trade on the current price of the NASDAQ, but rather the ETF’s price, calculated on its net asset value (NAV). 

Investing in NASDAQ ETFs is how many longer-term investors get exposure to the entire index. You can do this with share dealing. Here, you’d buy upfront, based on the full value of the ETF, and hold until you want to sell. 

You could also trade NASDAQ ETFs on leverage with CFDs but bear in mind this offers lower liquidity and higher spreads than trading the index directly. Leveraged trades mean you can go long or short on NASDAQ ETFs. However, total profits or losses can significantly outweigh your margin amount, as both are based on the total position size. 

With NAGA.com you can trade the largest NASDAQ-100 Index ETFs, but also Inverse ETFs and Leveraged ETFs, Tech and Robotics ETFs, Cybersecurity ETFs, or AI ETFs.

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Trade or invest in NASDAQ shares 

With NAGA.com, you can also trade or invest in the actual stocks included in the NASDAQ 100. 

Target specific NASDAQ 100 stocks like META (Facebook), Tesla, or Alphabet, without gaining exposure to the entire index. With this option, you choose your own NASDAQ shares based on your personal trading strategy. 

Invest in stocks with zero commission charges (terms apply) on our investment platform and own actual NASDAQ 100 company shares outright.  

You can also trade NASDAQ companies without having to take ownership of shares, using CFDs. Stock trading is leveraged, so you can go long or short. 

Top 23 stocks for February 2025  

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Sources:

• https://ir.nasdaq.com/financials/annual-report
• https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/outlook-information-technology
• https://business.columbia.edu/insights/finance-economics/2025-stock-market-predictions 
• https://www.franklintempleton.co.uk/articles/2024/equity/2025-technology-outlook-will-the-rest-of-tech-finally-catch-up-to-the-mag-7 
• https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/us-technology-outlook-2025-neutral-outlook-across-all-subsectors-12-12-2024
• https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/technology/technology-media-telecom-outlooks/technology-industry-outlook.html