DAX 40 Forecast and Price Predictions 2025: What's behind the historic highs?

The German stock market benchmark index has gained nearly 30% in 2024, surging past the psychological 20,000 price mark, a level, which has long been seen as a tough nut to break. This performance ranks among one of the best in the history of the index. Yet, the rise in prices did not end there and also the first weeks of 2025 caused the market to rise.

The German stock market, known as the DAX 40, has been doing surprisingly well even though the country's economy is struggling. This is good news for investors, but there are some worries about the overall economic outlook. While the jobless data is slightly better than forecast and inflation is coming down, weak retail sales add to the questions about the DAX.

DAX 40 Forecast & Price Predictions – Key Takeaways

• DAX 40 forecast today: DAX has been rising towards the 23,300 points level when it recently started to see some cracks in this strong uptrend. The index still remains extremely strong and does not show a lot of bearish momentum. In the short term, though, some profit taking might be likely. Given the strong performance in recent months, a correction seems to be overdue. 
• DAX 40 forecast 2025: Most of the experts are forecasting that the DAX index might reach 30,000 points by the end of the year. However, they warn that it's important that the DAX will stay above the 20,000-point mark to keep going up.
• DAX 40 Forecast for the next 5 years: According to analysts, the bull market will continue within the next few years, but periodic downturns in business activity may bring corrections. The index could break the 30,000 points mark as written above but also reach the zone of 40,000 by 2030, according to the most bullish forecasts.
   

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DAX 40 Outlook - What's behind the German stock market gains?

To get a better understanding of how well the DAX is doing, we looked at how many companies in the German stock market were doing better than usual. Companies like SAP, Linde, Siemens, or Allianz tend to have a large influence in the momentum of the index. In general, about five to ten companies tend to move the index. Since the index is weighted by the market cap of a company, naturally bigger corporations tend to move the market more. Comparing past performance, we can observe that in 2023 companies like SAP and Siemens contributed to more than 20% of the rise of the index. Since Germany’s economy consists of several industrial giants, those alongside some tech companies tend to move the index the most.

Prominent contributors to this recent surge include SAP, a software company made in Germany. The price chart reveals a massive uptrend, which started at the end of 2022. Also, the Siemens AG has shown a similar upside. Despite regular corrections, the price development shows a general positive trend. Given the origin of the business of the company, which was started in their first small office building in downtown Munich, it has become a global player. 

This remarkable rally in the DAX index is occurring despite less favorable economic data for Germany. High energy cost due to the shift from the previous atomic energy supply to renewables has added a burden to the German economy. Many businesses are energy- intensive and some companies have thought about leaving Germany for that matter. The chemical giant BASF is such a case for example. In 2024 the company announced that they will partly withdraw from production sites in Germany and move elsewhere. Another example can be made with car manufacturer Volkswagen. Since they seemingly missed the trend of manufacturing electric vehicles the company is about to layoff thousands of workers. Vehicle sales have plummeted, and a recovery is not in sight.

However, not all data is negative currently. Instead, rising expectations of European Central Bank (ECB) rate cuts, as Euronews recently highlighted, and a substantial decline in oil and natural gas prices have been the two primary factors propelling German equities lately.

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ECB rate cuts in 2025 

The recent disinflation within the eurozone has fueled hopes that the ECB will initiate further rate cuts this year. Money markets indicate that investors are pricing in 50 basis points of cuts through December 2025, implying two more interest-rate reductions of 25 basis points each, with the next expected in March 2025.

As a result of this notable change in ECB rate forecasts, bond rates have decreased throughout the eurozone. German 10-year bond yields just fell again to the level of 2.48% Recent data suggest a slight rise, mainly due to the election in Germany, with the currently pro- growth policies likely being implemented. Furthermore, also the increase in spending for defense will have an impact in the market. Concerns of higher debt levels and a potential rise in inflation is leading to a rise.

When will interest rates go down

Lower energy prices

The significant decline in energy prices has been another important driver of German stock market success that has set records. The nation's transition strategy towards renewable energy sources by 2030, known as the "Energiewende," has Germany firmly committed to this goal, although purchasing fossil fuels still costs German firms a lot of money.  

Positively, the recent sharp drops in the price of natural gas and oil have provided respite to Germany's energy-intensive industries and automakers. The price of Brent crude oil has decreased, and prices might be set to fall even further as long-term charts currently suggest. The Dutch TTF benchmark's tracking of European petrol prices has recently started to decline. This might mark the turnaround in the bullish trend and could offer a cheaper supply in energy moving forward.

Crude Oil Forecast and Price Predictions

Crude Oil Forecast and Price Predictions

DAX 40 Forecast - What could happen next?

Despite numerous geopolitical conflicts and the weak economic outlook, stock market experts hold a cautiously optimistic view concerning the future of the German stock market. They expect the Dax to trade between 22,500 points and 30,000 points. As of early 2025, most major German and European banks have provided forecasts for the DAX index. Some details about their outlook can be found below:

Berenberg Bank forecasts DAX to reach 22,000 points

Berenberg Bank projects the DAX to reach 22,000 points by the end of 2025, implying an approximate 8% increase from current levels. This forecast suggests a continuation of the bullish trend observed in 2024, during which the DAX rose by over 20%. However, Berenberg anticipates that the growth rate may moderate in 2025 compared to the previous year's performance. Their analysis indicates that while the equity markets are expected to maintain an upward trajectory, the pace of gains might be tempered due to various economic factors.

DZ Bank - DAX forecasted to reach 22,500 points

DZ Bank forecasts the DAX to reach 22,500 points by the end of 2025. Their analysts expect Germany's GDP growth to be around 0.3% for the year, influenced by global economic conditions and potential protectionist measures from major trading partners. Despite these challenges, DZ Bank predicts that the DAX will experience growth, reflecting a cautiously optimistic outlook for the German equity market. They also anticipate that the U.S. economy will outperform, with a projected GDP growth of 2.2% in 2025, which could have implications for global trade dynamics and, consequently, for Germany's export-driven economy.

BCA Research

BCA Research anticipates that the DAX will lead a prolonged phase of European market outperformance in 2025. Their analysis highlights that U.S. forward earnings per share rose by 12.5% year-over-year up to October, while global earnings growth was more modest at 10% for capitalization-weighted indices and just 4.5% for equal-weighted indices. This suggests that while the U.S. has seen significant earnings growth, the global picture is more mixed, positioning European markets, particularly the DAX, for potential outperformance. BCA Research's outlook indicates a favorable environment for European equities, with the DAX expected to be at the forefront of this trend.

Bank of America (BofA) Global Research

While BofA Global Research's primary focus is on the U.S. markets, projecting the S&P 500 to reach 6,666 points by the end of 2025, their outlook has implications for global markets, including the DAX. They expect the U.S. economy to continue outperforming other developed economies, driven by strong productivity growth. This robust U.S. performance could have spillover effects on global trade and investment flows, potentially benefiting export-oriented economies like Germany. However, the exact impact on the DAX would depend on various factors, including currency exchange rates, trade policies, and the performance of key sectors within the German economy.

Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank has set a target of 7,000 points for the S&P 500 index by the end of 2025, reflecting expectations of robust economic growth and corporate earnings in the U.S. While this forecast does not directly address the DAX, the anticipated strength in the U.S. markets could have positive implications for global equities, including the DAX. A strong U.S. economy often leads to increased global trade and investment, which can benefit export-driven economies like Germany. However, specific projections for the DAX were not provided in Deutsche Bank's forecast.

In summary, while forecasts vary, the consensus among these institutions suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook for the DAX in 2025, with expectations of moderate growth influenced by both domestic and global economic factors.

DAX 40 Analysis - What are charts saying?

On the DAX chart, we can track the time of the first cut for each of those three cycles that have been shown since the year 2000. It’s the 2011 instance that’s of interest, as this was a moderate series of cuts and given the pattern with which those cuts priced in, as opposed to the emergency actions of 2001 or 2008. Slow, steady, and methodical cuts can possibly be absorbed by the financial system without significant unrest. But fast and aggressive cuts can quickly trigger a bull market in bonds and if capital begins to leave the equity space, a new theme can quickly develop, much as we saw in those two earlier instances.  

For 2025 targets, there’s a Fibonacci extension near 22,700 which is close to the current price: after which another spot shows around the 25,000 level. However, a drop towards the 18,500 level could cause the market to find a strong support zone. A break of that level might then cause the index to target previous resistance levels at around 16,500 points. If the ECB will continue to cut rates further in 2025, without any abrupt emergency actions, that 25,000 level in the DAX might indeed be reached at some point.

DAX 40 Price Predictions from AI-based Websites

The Financial Forecast Center provides monthly average forecasts for the DAX index:

• February 2025: 22,217.64 points
• March 2025: 22,471 points (±249)
• April 2025: 22,739 points (±295)
• May 2025: 22,097 points (±322)
• June 2025: 22,355 points (±340)
• July 2025: 22,667 points (±355)
• August 2025: 22,363 points (±367)
• September 2025: 21,783 points (±377)
• October 2025: 22,211 points (±386)

These forecasts suggest a relatively stable DAX index throughout 2025, with minor fluctuations.

MunafaSutra's AI-driven analysis indicates a strong bullish trend for the DAX index:

• Short-Term Forecast: An upward trend with a potential target of 22,672 points.
• Mid-Term Forecast: Continued upward momentum with targets of 22,672 and 22,935.06 points.
• Long-Term Forecast: Sustained growth with potential targets of 22,672 and 22,935.06 points.

The AI Munafa prediction value, as of March 3, 2025, is 110, indicating a strong upward movement with expectations of continued growth.

Summary

The forecasts from these sources present a cautiously optimistic outlook for the DAX index in 2025:

• The Financial Forecast Center projects the DAX to remain relatively stable, averaging around 22,000 to 22,700 points throughout the year.
• MunafaSutra's AI analysis indicates a strong bullish trend, with potential targets up to approximately 22,935 points in the mid to long term.

Investors should consider these forecasts alongside their risk tolerance and investment strategies, keeping in mind that market conditions can change due to various economic and geopolitical factors.

What is DAX 40?

DAX is short for Deutscher Aktien Index 40 and tracks the 40 largest German companies in terms of market cap and liquidity. It was established with a base value of 1,000 in 1988 and since 2006, the Xetra trading venue has been computing the index’s price every second.

When the DAX 30 became the DAX 40 in September 2021, the Deutsch Boerse admitted ten more companies to the index, meaning a slightly broader range of sectors covered, as well as other regulatory provisions. The DAX 30 became the DAX 40 on 20 September 2021.

Since its inception at the end of 1987, the DAX has mirrored other indices during major economic events throughout history, including the tech bubble in 2000, significant lows in 2003, as well as other fluctuations over in subsequent years. The index plunged in 2008 amid the global financial crisis and did so again during the global COVID-19 outbreak.   

How Is the DAX Index Calculated?

The DAX 40 is computed through the free-float methodology, which means that it takes into consideration only the readily available shares and it doesn’t consider shares that are untradable, like those owned by governments.  
  
Like other blue-chip indices, the DAX Index is also weighted by market cap, so companies with higher market caps have more influence on its value. Companies included in the DAX can have a maximum weight of 10%.

How to forecast the DAX 40 index?

The DAX 40 has an inverse correlation of 70% with the Euro and a positive correlation of 90% with the main US stock indices, according to Blackwell Global. The relationship between the DAX and its US counterparts has occasionally diverged; in 2018, for instance, the 50-day correlation between the two moved negative, suggesting a brief shift in the fundamental patterns impacting global assets.

For example, when the EUR/USD currency pair rises, the DAX index typically falls; conversely, when the Euro falls vs the USD, the DAX rises. Traders utilize this correlation to create reliable trading strategies. However, keep in mind that correlations sometimes can fade unexpectedly.

The DAX is very sensitive to the policies of the European Central Bank, or ECB, which is another fascinating fact. The index is probably going to be impacted by major news releases in the Eurozone. This is so that you can reduce risk since you're basing decisions on accurate information when using the correlation technique to forecast the DAX 40 index. 

How to trade DAX 40?

Contract for Difference (CFDs) is one of the ways you can trade the DAX cost-effectively and efficiently. Generally, online brokers offer a CFD based on the cash index (GER30) and a CFD based on the underlying futures contract (DAX30.fs).

When you trade indices online using CFDs, you can speculate on the direction of the underlying instrument (the DAX) without owning it or any of its constituents. You can make use of leverage and you will have the ability to go both long and short. However, remember that leverage can magnify both profit and losses. Make sure you are aware of the risks of CFD trading.

CFD trading can prove especially useful during a downturn. Most investors want to avoid a reshuffling of their portfolio as the costs can quickly add up and it is incredibly difficult to time the market correctly. Therefore, instead of selling a large part of your portfolio when you anticipate a correction, you could use CFDs to speculate on falling prices. 

What are the DAX trading hours?

The DAX market hours are from 9 AM to 5:30 PM (Central European Time). Out-of-hours trading occurs from 5:30 PM to 10:00 PM and from 08:00 to 09:00.

The Dax Futures contract on the EUREX exchange is traded from 01:10 to 22:00 (Central European Time).  The Cash CFD - GER30 - can be traded from 18:00 Sunday to 16:59 Friday (New York Time) with a daily trading break from 16:59 - 18:00 (New York Time).

When trading the DAX 40, you should always be aware of market holidays, as these days usually see less liquidity and less trading volume.  

Consider the following: Good Friday, Easter Monday, Labor Day, Ascension Day, Whit Monday, Corpus Christi, German Unity Day, Christmas and Boxing Day, and remember that while some holidays will only be observed by German traders, others might be followed by different traders around the world. 

Explore our DAX Index offering
 

On our trading platform, we offer two versions of the DAX index to trade called the DAX30 Cash Index and DAX 40 Futures (Eurex). You can view and analyze live price charts, seamlessly open and close trades, track your progress, and set up alerts.
 

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What are the most popular DAX trading strategies?  

Day trading and swing trading are among the most popular trading styles used to actively trade the DAX 40 over the short to medium term. While you will keep your positions open for a few hours with day trading, you can hold them from a few days to a few weeks with swing trading.  

Usually, active traders rely on technical analysis to decide when to enter or exit the market. They can use breakout trading to spot when the German index breaks out above a resistance level or below a support level to open a position and take advantage of the strong price movement.  

But they can also use other strategies, such as mean reversion trading, which is used to determine any overbought or oversold conditions that can trigger a price reversal, pushing the index to return to its mean.

News trading is also very popular when trading the DAX 40, such as when economic and geopolitical news that may impact the German economy are published.

If your time horizon is a bit longer than a day, you can also use a trend-following strategy to trade in the direction of the primary trend and ride the bullish or bearish momentum. This is called position trading and takes into consideration the fundamental outlook. 

How to invest in DAX 40? 

First is to try to replicate the index yourself, in a process known as indexing. This way, you can create your own portfolio of securities that best represents the DAX 40 index. The stocks and the weightings of your allocations would be the same as in the actual index, and the information about index components and their percentage weights is publicly available on several financial or investing websites. 

Some of the best stocks to buy in 2025        

Adjustments would have to be made periodically to reflect changes in the index. This stock investing method can be quite costly since it requires an investor to create an extensive portfolio and make hundreds of transactions a year.  

Thus, Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are the most popular way to invest in the German index. It is more cost-effective than buying shares and the rebalancing is done frequently.  

The largest DAX ETFs are:

• iShares Core DAX UCITS ETF
• Xtrackers DAX UCITS ETF
• Deka DAX UCITS ETF

The DAX ETFs with the lowest expense ratio are:

• Lyxor Core DAX
• XTrackers UCITS ETF
• Xtraders DAX UCITS ETF Income

Most DAX ETFs are similar and essentially just track the performance of the index. When comparing the different ETFs, investors usually look at the total expense ratio (TER) - i.e. how much it will cost to hold the ETF - as well as how much money the ETF has under management and where it is domiciled.  

Some of the best ETFs for 2025 

Explore our German stocks and ETFs

Our WebTrader platform and app offers the most important stocks listed on the German stock exchange as well as several ETFs that track the performance of the underlying Germany 40 index. 

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Sources:

• https://walletinvestor.com/commodity-forecast/dax-futures-history 
• https://munafasutra.com/indices/forecast/DAX
• https://www.forecasts.org/subscribe/index.htm
• https://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/news/stock-market-outlook-the-dax-is-in-for-a-bumpy-start-to-the-year
• https://finance.yahoo.com/news/barclays-raises-2025-p-500-114750906.html
• https://www.dzbank.com/content/dzbank/en/home/we-are-dz-bank/press/news_archive/2024/dz-bank-research---outlook-for-2025.html