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- Natural Gas Forecast & Price Predictions 2025: Prices Rebound Amid Tightening Supply-Demand Balance
Natural Gas Forecast & Price Predictions 2025: Prices Rebound Amid Tightening Supply-Demand Balance
18 February 2025
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Cristian Cochintu
The U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaged $4.62/MMBtu in January 2025, marking an increase of $0.59/MMBtu compared to January 2024.
Natural gas prices have rebounded significantly in early 2025, rising from historically low levels seen in 2024. This increase is primarily due to colder-than-average temperatures, which have led to increased demand for space heating and potential supply constraints.
Prices have shown an upward trend across all key markets in recent months, reflecting tighter supply-demand fundamentals. Gas demand growth is expected to remain strong throughout 2025, with global demand projected to increase by 2.5% for the year.
Natural Gas Price Forecast & Price Prediction – Summary
- Natural Gas price forecast 2025: The EIA projects the Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average $3.80/MMBtu for the entirety of 2025. This forecast takes into account the expected steady growth in natural gas production, with output projected to reach 104.5 Bcf/day in 2025.
- Natural Gas price prediction 2026: The EIA forecasts natural gas prices to rise to an average of $4.20/MMBtu in 2026. This increase is attributed to growing demand, particularly from new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects, and the expectation that demand will grow faster than supply. Natural gas production is projected to increase by nearly 3% to 107.2 Bcf/day in 2026.
- Natural Gas price prediction for the next 5 years and beyond: While short-term prices are expected to rise, long-term forecasts suggest a potential moderation in prices. Factors such as increased production, particularly in the Permian Basin and Haynesville Shale, coupled with potential economic slowdowns, may lead to price stabilization or even declines in the longer term. However, geopolitical tensions and the pace of transition to renewable energy sources remain significant factors that could influence future price trends.
With NAGA.com you can trade US Natural Gas through CFDs if you want to speculate on price movements, or invest in Energy stocks and ETFs.
Fundamental Natural Gas Forecast 2025: Global Markets on Edge with Potential Canadian Tariffs
The first two months of 2025 saw a noticeable increase in natural gas prices, following a period of volatility in 2024. According to preliminary projections, global natural gas consumption reached an all-time high in 2024, with demand growing by 2.8% year-over-year (y-o-y), surpassing the 2% average growth rate observed between 2010 and 2020. Despite this robust expansion, the market remains fragile. Global LNG output growth has been below average, and price fluctuations continue to be fueled by geopolitical concerns.
Natural gas prices have risen across all major markets due to tighter supply-demand dynamics. In 2025, it is anticipated that the growth in natural gas demand will slow to below 2% globally, primarily supported by fast-growing Asian markets. However, the global gas balance remains precarious, with the supply side remaining tight and geopolitical tensions continuing to fuel price volatility.
Natural gas prices increased across all key markets in early 2025
The global gas balance tightened in early 2025 due to robust growth in gas demand in Asia and supply constraints. Furthermore, new uncertainties have emerged, such as the halt of Russian piped gas transit via Ukraine on January 1, 2025, and the potential implementation of a 10% tariff on energy imports from Canada, including natural gas. These factors have fueled even more price volatility.
By February 2025, natural gas prices had risen significantly. The U.S. benchmark Henry Hub spot price is forecast to average $3.10 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2025, up from $2.20 in 2024. Prices are supported by upstream producers managing their output, a significant rise in gas-fired power generation, and increased gas exports.
Global Gas Demand
Global natural gas demand is expected to expand further in 2025, albeit at a slower pace than in 2024. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that demand growth will slow to below 2% in 2025, primarily due to tighter market fundamentals.
Asia continues to drive global gas demand growth in 2025
Asia is expected to remain the primary driver of global natural gas demand growth in 2025. China will marginally remain the largest source of growth, even as its expansion pace slows. India and other emerging Asian economies are taking up increasing shares of demand growth. The IEA projects that India will increase its consumption of liquid fuels by 0.3 million barrels per day in both 2025 and 2026.
Industrial use continues to be a significant factor in demand growth, particularly in non-OECD Asian countries. However, gas use in the power sector is expected to decrease slightly in some regions as natural gas prices rise and more renewables and coal are used to generate electricity.
Natural gas demand growth is forecasted to slow in the second half of 2024
The rise of the world's petrol demand is predicted to slow to less than 2% year over year in the second half of 2024. The relaxation is partially due to demand's slow rebound, which started in the second half of 2023. Global gas demand is expected to increase by 2.5%, or little over 100 billion cubic meters, for the entire year 2024.
IEA anticipates that the modest rise in the world's LNG supply will limit the expansion of import markets. With the power sector's gas use expected to rise just slightly, industry becomes the primary driver of global demand. This is due to the expectation that growth in the rapidly expanding Asian markets and the gas-rich nations of Africa, the Middle East, and North America will be somewhat offset by losses in EU.
Natural gas demand growth faces challenges in 2025
The growth of global natural gas demand is predicted to slow in 2025 due to various factors. The IEA anticipates that the modest rise in global LNG supply will limit the expansion of import markets. LNG exports are expected to grow by 2.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2025, with most of the increase coming from LNG exports.
Industry remains the primary driver of global demand, with growth expected in the rapidly expanding Asian markets and the gas-rich nations of Africa, the Middle East, and North America. However, this growth may be partially offset by decreased consumption in the electric power sector as natural gas prices rise.
The potential implementation of a 10% tariff on Canadian natural gas imports to the United States adds another layer of uncertainty to the market. If implemented, this tariff could drive up commodity costs, alter supply sources, shift pipeline flows and demand, and create other potential disruptions, particularly affecting border states that rely heavily on Canadian natural gas.
Global Gas Supply
Global LNG supply growth is set to accelerate in 2025, with approximately 30 billion cubic meters (bcm) of additional supply expected to enter the market. This growth is largely attributed to new major LNG projects coming online, such as Plaquemines LNG and LNG Canada. Despite this stronger growth, the global gas market is projected to remain short by around 30 bcm compared to pre-crisis supply levels.
Natural gas supply is forecasted to increase, but challenges remain
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects dry natural gas production to increase by 1% to 104.5 Bcf/d in 2025. This growth is primarily driven by increased production in the Permian region, following higher crude oil production as most natural gas in the area is associated gas.
However, the global gas balance remains fragile. The potential halt of Russian piped gas transit via Ukraine could add near-term pressure to LNG markets. While this does not pose an immediate supply risk for the European Union, it underscores the increasing reliance on LNG and the need for greater international cooperation to enhance gas supply security.
Low-emissions gas supply continues to grow
The deployment of low-emission gases is gaining momentum, supported by increased policy support. Europe and North America are expected to lead this expansion, accounting for more than 70% of the overall growth. However, emerging low-emission gas producers such as Brazil, China, and India are also anticipated to increase their output.
Natural gas inventories and price outlook
U.S. natural gas storage inventories started 2025 above the five-year average. However, due to increased demand from recent winter storms and ongoing production cuts, storage levels have now fallen below the five-year average. This shift in inventory levels, coupled with growing demand, is expected to put upward pressure on natural gas prices.
The EIA has revised its forecast for 2025 average U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot prices upward to $3.79/MMBtu, a 20% increase from previous estimates. This price increase reflects the tightening supply-demand balance and the expectation that inventories will remain below five-year averages through much of 2025.
Looking ahead, the global gas market is expected to remain tight throughout 2025, with potential for price volatility influenced by weather events and geopolitical tensions. The market is anticipated to move towards a more balanced state in the latter half of the decade, as new LNG export capacity from Qatar and the United States comes online.
How to Trade and Invest in Natural Gas
Natural Gas Price Forecast - Technical Outlook
The chart below displays the daily price action of US Natural Gas (Spot), highlighting key technical levels and indicators. Over the past year, the price has exhibited a strong upward recovery from mid-2023 lows, forming a significant rally. The chart identifies key resistance levels around $3.735 and $3.950, with support near $3.000 and $2.695. A historical bearish divergence is visible at past peaks, indicating weakening momentum on previous highs.
Recent price action shows a bullish attempt to reclaim resistance at $3.735, with the price currently trading around $3.582. The recent trend has been choppy, forming a consolidation pattern below the resistance, with multiple failed breakouts. This suggests that market participants are closely monitoring supply and demand dynamics before committing to a stronger trend.
Trading indicators provide mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 57.48, indicating neutral momentum without overbought conditions. However, historical RSI bearish divergences at prior peaks suggest that price strength might not be as robust as it appears. The Average True Range (ATR), at 0.146, shows increasing volatility, implying larger price swings compared to previous months.
The main scenario suggests that if the price breaks and holds above $3.735, a move toward $3.950 could follow. A successful breakout would require increasing volume and strong bullish momentum, which would confirm continued buying pressure. Warmer or colder-than-expected weather patterns, LNG export demand, or geopolitical supply disruptions could act as catalysts.
Alternatively, if the price faces rejection at $3.735, a pullback toward $3.300 or $3.000 is possible, with a deeper decline to $2.695 if selling pressure intensifies. The presence of previous bearish divergences increases the likelihood of such a scenario, especially if fundamentals weaken, such as lower-than-expected energy demand or rising inventory levels.
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Natural Gas Price Predictions 2025
In its latest Natural Gas forecast, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has significantly revised its expectations for the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price in 2025. The agency now forecasts the Henry Hub price to average $3.79/MMBtu for full-year 2025, up about 20% from its January estimate. This increase is attributed to higher demand during the winter heating season and storage stocks projected to remain below average through the end of 2025.
The EIA has also adjusted its quarterly forecasts, predicting Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to average $3.70/MMBtu in Q1 2025, $3.39/MMBtu in Q2, $3.95/MMBtu in Q3, and $4.11/MMBtu in Q4. Looking ahead to 2026, the agency projects an average price of $4.16/MMBtu.
Market analysts are closely watching the impact of recent geopolitical developments on natural gas prices. Notably, the U.S. President's announcement of a potential 10% tariff on energy imports from Canada, including natural gas, has created uncertainty in the market. While implementation is currently paused until early March, this move could significantly affect supply sources, pipeline flows, and potentially drive-up commodity costs.
The natural gas futures market has shown considerable volatility in early 2025. February futures rose 20% in a single day, marking one of the largest increases since 1990. This surge was primarily driven by forecasts of brutally cold temperatures across much of the eastern United States, which is expected to boost gas demand.
Oil and gas executives surveyed by the Dallas Fed Energy Survey provided a range of predictions for the Henry Hub natural gas price at the end of 2025, with an average forecast of $3.19/MMBtu. However, individual predictions varied widely, from a low of $2.00/MMBtu to a high of $4.80/MMBtu.
Trading Economics has revised its Europe natural gas forecast, now expecting the fuel to trade at higher levels than previously anticipated, reflecting the overall upward trend in price predictions for 2025.
Fitch Ratings and other agencies are likely to revise their long-term price predictions in light of recent market developments and the EIA's updated forecasts. The market remains sensitive to weather patterns, production levels, and geopolitical factors, all of which contribute to the potential for continued price volatility throughout 2025.
Natural Gas Forecast for the Next 5 Years
Will natural gas prices continue to decrease in the next 5 years?
At the beginning of 2025, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised its forecast for the US Henry Hub gas price, projecting an average of $3.79/MMBtu for the full year 2025, up about 20% from its January estimate. This increase is attributed to higher demand during the winter heating season and storage stocks that are expected to remain below average through the end of 2025.
The Henry Hub gas price averaged $4.13/MMBtu in January 2025, up more than $1.00 from the December 2024 average of $3.01/MMBtu. The EIA now forecasts the Henry Hub price to average $3.70/MMBtu in the first quarter of 2025 and around $3.80/MMBtu for the entire year.
Fitch Ratings expects the Henry Hub price to average $2.75 per 1,000 cubic feet (Mcf) in 2026 and beyond, dropping from $3/MMBtu in 2025. For European markets, Fitch projects the Dutch TTF to average $5.0/Mcf in 2026 and beyond, down from $10/MMBtu in 2025.
Oil and gas executives surveyed by the Dallas Fed Energy Survey in late 2024 predicted an average Henry Hub natural gas price of $3.19/MMBtu by the end of 2025, with forecasts ranging from $2.00 to $4.80/MMBtu.
The World Bank's previous forecasts have been surpassed by current market conditions, with the EIA now projecting higher prices for 2025 and 2026. The agency expects the Henry Hub price to rise to an average of $4.16/MMBtu in 2026.
Regarding long-term projections, Deloitte's natural gas price forecast sees Henry Hub trading at $5.40/Mcf in 2030, rising to $6.55/Mcf by 2040. These figures represent a significant increase from earlier projections, reflecting the current market dynamics and long-term supply-demand expectations.
Natural Gas Forecast for 2030-2050
While analysts typically remain cautious about providing long-term outlooks for natural gas prices due to market volatility, recent forecasts and data offer insights into potential future trends. Let's examine the latest projections for natural gas prices in the coming decades.
Fitch Ratings updated long-term natural gas price forecast, released in March 2025, expects Henry Hub to average $3.89 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2026, a significant increase from their previous estimate. The firm projects Dutch TTF to average $4.20/MMBtu in 2026, reflecting a more moderate outlook for European gas prices.
Deloitte's latest natural gas price forecast for 2030, published in December 2024, anticipates Henry Hub trading at $5.40/MMBtu, unchanged from their previous projection. However, their forecast for 2040 has been revised upward, with US gas prices expected to reach $6.35/MMBtu.
For 2041, Deloitte now projects Henry Hub to trade at $6.50/MMBtu. While the firm does not provide a specific forecast for 2050, they maintain their projection of a 2% annual increase in Henry Hub prices after 2041.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has also weighed in with its long-term outlook. In its Annual Energy Outlook 2025, the EIA forecasts Henry Hub prices to reach $3.80/MMBtu by 2030, $4.20/MMBtu by 2040, and $4.95/MMBtu by 2050 in their reference case scenario.
It's important to note that these forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty due to factors such as technological advancements, policy changes, and shifts in global energy demand. The ongoing energy transition and potential geopolitical developments could substantially impact natural gas prices in the coming decades.
When looking for future gas price predictions and attempting to assess the long-term outlook for natural gas prices, bear in mind that analysts’ forecasts can be wrong. Analysts’ projections are based on making fundamental and technical studies of the asset’s performance, but past performance never guarantees future results.
Always do your own research and remember that your decision to trade depends on your attitude to risk, your expertise in this market, the spread of your investment portfolio, and how comfortable you feel about losing money. Never invest more money than you can afford to lose.
Natural Gas Historical Performance
Natural gas prices soared from the second half of 2020 to the third quarter of 2022, owing to rising post-COVID-19 demand and concerns about Russia’s supply after it invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
In the fourth quarter of 2021, uncertainties regarding Russia’s supply bolstered the price rally, according to Cedigaz. Europe’s natural gas price reached its highest price for 2021 at €187/MWh on 21 December, before retreating to €70 on the last day of 2021.
Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), the European gas price benchmark futures, rose almost 268% in 2021, while JKM rose 113%. US natural gas prices increased by almost 47% in 2021.
Global natural gas prices tumbled in the second half of 2022, from the heights reached in August.
US natural gas price began 2023 at $4.38, having fallen from a 14-year high of $9.85 per metric million British thermal units (MMBtu) on 29 August.
The recent Natural Gas price action started a base building after hitting seven-month highs around $2. Following this reversal pattern, natural gas reached an 8-month high at the beginning of Q4 2023.
The surplus at the start of winter and a mild winter and the seasonality sent the natural gas prices to the lowest levels since 2020, close to the $1.5 mark.
Following the natural gas supply shock of 2022 and a gradual rebalancing in 2023, gas markets moved to more pronounced growth in the first half of 2024, trading above $3 again, before falling to $2 at the beginning of Q3.
Other price predictions:
- Oil Forecast & Price Predictions 2025
- Gold Forecast & Price Predictions 2025
- Dow Jones Forecast & Price Predictions 2025
- Nasdaq-100 Forecast & Price Predictions 2025
- EurUsd Forecast & Price Predictions 2025
- Turkish Lira Forecast & Price Predictions 2025
- British Pound Forecast & Price Predictions 2025
- Silver Forecast & Price Predictions 2025
- IBEX 35 Forecast & Price Predictions 2025
Sources:
IMPORTANT NOTICE: Any news, opinions, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this article are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and therefore, it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Past performance is not an indication of possible future performance. Any action you take upon the information in this article is strictly at your own risk, and we will not be liable for any losses and damages in connection with the use of this article.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
FAQs
The lack of momentum in gas drilling and associated production reflects the lack of certainty about future prices. Gas prices are still very much influenced by the regional forces affecting weather and storage levels. The EIA forecasts the Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average $3.80/MMBtu for the entire of 2025.
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