Oil Forecast and Price Predictions 2025: Amidst geopolitical instability and trade wars, the 70$ level didn’t hold.

Crude oil prices have faced sustained downward pressure in mid-2025, with Brent crude around $66/bbl and WTI near $63/bbl as of August 2025 — reflecting market reactions to OPEC+ moving to unwind production cuts by September 2025, a faster timeline than previously indicated. This strategic shift comes despite strong compliance across the alliance, raising concerns about potential inventory builds as global supply continues to outpace demand growth projections.

The latest oil price forecast for 2025 suggests continued volatility, with Brent projected to average below $60/bbl in Q4 2025 and near $50/bbl in 2026 according to EIA models. Three critical factors dominate the crude oil price prediction landscape: 

• OPEC+ production policy and the pace of unwinding cuts 
• The global supply/demand balance and resulting inventory builds 
• Geopolitical risks and sanctions that may disrupt flows

OPEC+ supply restoration: Gradual production increases through 2026
U.S. oil output: Forecast to set a 2025 record below 13.59 million bp
Demand uncertainty: Global consumption growth limited to 1.4 million bpd

While geopolitical risks from U.S. sanctions and Middle East tensions could create short-term price spikes, analysts continue to anticipate bearish trends will dominate the crude oil forecast through 2026. By March 2025, prices met resistance near the low $70s and have drifted lower; the path points to $58/bbl by late 2025 and $49–$50 by early 2026 as slowing demand failed to offset OPEC+ unwinding, firm U.S. supply, and stock builds. 

For those tracking whether oil prices will go up, current projections indicate limited upside potential beyond temporary inventory drawdowns amid 1.4–2.0 mb/d stock builds into 2025–2026. The crude oil price outlook for 2030 remains clouded by energy transition pressures, though EM demand could offer support as global growth slows to 680 kb/d in 2025 and 700 kb/d in 2026. Energy investors should monitor OPEC+ compliance and unwinding progress, U.S. production trends, and inventory data for signs of rebalancing in this complex oil price environment.

Oil Forecast & Price Predictions – Summary  

• Oil price prediction Q3 2025: OPEC+ members began phasing out 2.2m b/d voluntary supply cuts in April 2025 and moved to fully unwind most of them by September 2025, leading to rising global oil inventories. The EIA now forecasts Brent crude prices to average about $67/bbl in 2025, with downward pressure accelerating into the second half.
• Oil price prediction 2025: The EIA revised its Brent crude oil price forecast downward to an average near $67/b in 2025, as robust non-OPEC+ production growth from the U.S., Canada, and Brazil offsets moderate demand increases. This follows OPEC+'s accelerated decision to unwind supply restrictions amid rising global inventories, with most voluntary cuts slated to end by September 2025.   
• Oil price prediction for the next 5 years and beyond: Oil price prediction for the next 5 years and beyond: The EIA projects global fossil fuel demand will peak by 2030, with Brent prices now expected to decline toward roughly $51/bbl by 2026 under current policies. Long-term forecasts remain divided, though accelerating energy transitions and EV adoption create sustained downward pressure beyond 2030.

With NAGA.com you can trade US Oil Spot and UK Oil Spot futures through CFDs if you want to speculate on price movements and trade or invest in Oil stocks and Oil ETFs.   

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Crude Oil Forecast Q4 2025

Crude oil markets face complex pressures in mid-2025, with Brent around $66/bbl and WTI near $63/bbl as of August 19, reflecting OPEC+ signals to unwind up to 2.2 million b/d of production cuts that had been slated to begin in April, though the pace remains uncertain. This backdrop coincides with resilient U.S. supply near record highs, shaping forecasts that center on mid-$60s in late 2025 and, per EIA, sub-$50 averages in 2026.

Three critical factors shape the 2025 oil price prediction landscape: 

• Supply expansion: Non-OPEC+ production growth now coincides with above-target OPEC+ compliance (~105% as of July) and phased restorations (+1.918 mb/d since April; +548 kb/d in August, including +300 kb/d for the UAE).
• Demand constraints: Global consumption grows about 1.3 million b/d in 2025 (1.28 million b/d in 2026), below pre‑pandemic averages.
• Monetary policy: Persistent, though easing, inflation has kept the Fed on hold; first cuts are possible in Q4 2025, keeping financial conditions restrictive.

While technical resistance near $74.50/bbl within a $72–$76 range suggests potential short-term Brent rallies, structural oversupply from U.S. producers and ongoing OPEC+ restorations limits sustained price growth. The EIA’s crude oil forecast projects Brent averaging about $74/bbl in 2025 before declining to $66/bbl in 2026 as inventories accumulate near 100,000 b/d. Market resilience now hinges on summer demand absorbing surplus production, though analysts identify four bearish pressures: accelerating OPEC+ supply additions (including the UAE baseline uplift); resilient U.S. shale output; slower demand growth with China/Europe softness; rising commercial stocks and a firm dollar under restrictive real rates.

OPEC+ spare capacity exceeding 5.9 million b/d
Oil price forecasts for 2030 remain bifurcated between $66/bbl (accelerated energy transition) and $73/bbl (emerging market demand growth). Current conditions suggest limited upside beyond technical rebounds, with traders digesting compliance slippage and Aug 3 accelerated unwinding, sub-$70 WTI U.S. drilling restraint, ~5.7 mb/d spare capacity, and Brent <$60 in Q4.

OPEC and its influence on Oil prices

OPEC is a 12-member group of major oil-producing countries that coordinate to manage supply and influence global prices. By aligning production with the OPEC+ alliance of 22 nations, which added Brazil in 2025, OPEC aims to stabilize the market, but its decisions can also lead to price swings. Here’s how OPEC might impact oil prices in the near term (2025) and longer term (2026–2030):

Short-Term (2025) 

• Production cuts: In 2025, OPEC+ unwound much of its 2023–2024 voluntary cuts and raised output, loosening supply and pushing prices lower. This has depended on the pace of the unwind and whether member countries adhered to updated quotas. 
• Global demand: Economic slowdowns in 2025 have tempered how much oil the world needs. With supply outpacing demand, inventories built, and prices drifted down. 
• Alternative energy: Faster adoption of solar/wind power and electric cars continued in 2025, but it only slightly reduced oil demand, with economic and trade factors playing the larger role in limiting OPEC’s pricing power.

Long-Term (2026–2030)

• Energy transition: By 2030, renewable energy and electric vehicles may affect oil demand, but OPEC now sees growth through 2030, while the IEA expects a 2029 peak and a slight dip in 2030. OPEC could lose influence if it doesn’t adapt (e.g., investing in solar/hydrogen).
• Geopolitics: Conflicts, sanctions, or OPEC+ policy shifts can disrupt supply chains and trigger price spikes; quotas were adjusted and output lifted in mid-2025, with no major new members.
• OPEC’s survival: If oil demand drops sharply, OPEC members might compete aggressively for market share, leading to price wars and cheaper oil, but most 2025 baselines don’t foresee such a decline by 2030.

In summary, OPEC’s short-term power relies on balancing supply and demand and remains strong in 2025, but long-term trends like clean energy could weaken its role nearer 2030. Prices are volatile in 2025, and no clear downward trend after 2026 is expected unless renewables outpace projections.

How to Trade the Next OPEC Meeting   

How US Shale and Non-OPEC Growth Shape the Oil Market

US shale oil (produced through fracking) is at record highs and rising non-OPEC+ oil supplies (notably from the U.S., Brazil, and Canada) are reshaping global oil prices and constraining OPEC’s power—even as U.S. growth slows from its earlier pace. Here’s how:

Shale Oil’s Speed and Flexibility

• Rapid response to prices: Shale can still ramp faster than OPEC, but maturing acreage and weaker wells have slowed the response since peaking in Q2 2025. This only partly restrains OPEC’s pricing power. 
• Cost efficiency: Improved drilling has lowered shale costs, making new wells viable near $65/barrel. This supports activity, but higher break-evens on lower-tier acreage slow growth. 
• Market stability: Shale acts as a 'shock absorber,' but its stabilizing role has weakened with acreage depletion. If OPEC cuts output, shale can fill gaps, yet blunting price spikes is harder.

Non-OPEC+ Supply Flood

• Growing dominance: Non-OPEC+ countries now supply just over half of global oil (~52%). Their output is set to rise by about 1.0 million barrels/day in 2025, broadly matching—rather than outpacing—demand growth.
• Price pressure: Extra supply from non-OPEC+ is expected to create a global inventory surplus in late 2025 and early 2026, pushing prices down unless OPEC+ makes deeper cuts. 
• Geopolitical shifts: The U.S., Brazil, and Guyana are reducing reliance on OPEC oil as their production climbs to record or near-record levels in 2025. This weakens OPEC’s pricing power.

Combined Impact on Prices

• Short-term (2025): Rising shale and non-OPEC+ supplies—led by the US, Brazil, Canada, Norway, and Guyana—have led OPEC+ to unwind, not extend, its voluntary cuts, with output increases accelerated to finish by September 2025. Brent hovered near the low-$70s in mid-2025 and is now forecast to drop to around $58/b in Q4 2025 and potentially toward $49/b by early 2026 as inventories build.
• Long-term (2026–2030): If shale and non-OPEC+ keep expanding, OPEC+ might lose control over prices. This could lead to price wars (like in 2020) or force OPEC to accept lower market share, but for now the dominant dynamic is oversupply and falling prices as stockpiles rise into 2026.
• OPEC’s dilemma: Cutting output supports prices but sacrifices revenue and market share. Letting prices fall can strain budgets and test high-cost producers, yet in 2025 the group is prioritizing market share by increasing output.

In short, shale and non-OPEC+ growth are making the oil market more competitive and less predictable. While OPEC+ still matters, its power to control prices is shrinking as these new players keep pumping and as the unwind of cuts adds barrels to the market.

How Slowing Demand and Green Energy Could Impact Oil Prices

Here’s how weaker economic growth, delayed rate cuts, and the shift to renewables are shaping oil prices in 2025 and beyond: softer global growth—especially in China and Europe—and rate cuts postponed into late 2025 have kept demand modest and the U.S. dollar firm, weighing on prices; meanwhile, OPEC+ moved to unwind production cuts by September 2025, adding to an already building surplus as supply growth outpaced demand; consequently, many forecasts now place Brent under sustained pressure, with levels below $60 per barrel by late 2025 and near $50 in early 2026, while the gradual transition to green energy reinforces a bearish medium‑term outlook rather than causing an abrupt shock.

Short-Term (2025)

• Economic slowdown: With global oil demand growing about 1.6 million barrels/day (vs. 1H25) and China’s growth mixed, prices stayed soft as OPEC+ raised output instead of cutting. 
• High interest rates: With the Fed keeping rates elevated in 2025, industries and freight transport (like trucks/ships) haven’t cut fuel use much; the bigger drag is rising supply and inventories. 
• Energy transition: While EV sales and renewables haven’t crashed prices, 2025’s weakness stems mainly from supply increases and inventory builds, not the transition or investor bets.

Long-Term (2026–2030)

• Demand plateau: EV adoption in Europe/China and renewable energy projects could cut annual oil demand growth to 0.7–1.4 million barrels/day through 2030 (vs. 1–2 million pre-2020). 
• Emerging markets cushion: Countries like India and Southeast Asia will still need more oil for vehicles/factories, preventing a total collapse in demand. 
• Stagnant prices: If global demand growth stays weak, oil might trade closer to $50–$60/barrel instead of spiking to $100+. 

In short, slowing consumption and greener energy will likely keep prices lower for longer. While oil won’t disappear, its era of dramatic price surges could fade as the world gradually transitions to alternatives.

How Geopolitical Risks and OPEC Decisions Shape Oil Prices 

Short-Term (2025)

Geopolitical tensions like expanded U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and a renewed “maximum pressure” posture toward Iran remain tail risks, but they have not produced a sustained 1 million barrels/day supply loss in 2025. Instead of shortage-driven spikes to $85–$90/barrel, the base case now sees supply growth outpacing demand, with Brent averaging in the mid-$60s for 2025 and slipping into the high-$50s by late year. However, any brief flare-ups have been capped as non-OPEC producers and a scheduled OPEC+ unwind add barrels to stabilize the market.

OPEC+ decisions over balancing prices and market share continue to create uncertainty. If the group had stayed united and kept deep production cuts in place, prices might have held closer to $75–$80/barrel; but as of mid-2025 it has moved to unwind curbs ahead of schedule, pointing to lower levels. And while the risk of members like Russia or Iraq breaking ranks has faded, a faster-than-planned return of supply could still push prices down sharply. 

Oil inventories are no longer tightening; they are building and are expected to rise rapidly into late 2025 and early 2026 as supply growth outpaces demand. With stockpiles set to keep expanding, Brent is widely forecast to average in the high-$50s in Q4 2025 and to drift toward roughly $50/barrel in early 2026, reflecting persistent oversupply.

Long-Term (2026–2030)

Sanctions and wars have caused repeated price spikes, but their impact has tended to fade as countries adapt. For example, Russia and Iran have found new buyers or smuggling routes, limiting long-term supply losses. 

OPEC+’s about 5.8–6.8 million barrels/day spare capacity hangs over markets. If the group uses this to flood the market, prices could crash below $60/barrel, a path several mainstream forecasts now contemplate for late 2025–2026. But if OPEC+ keeps this capacity idle to prop up prices, it risks losing more market share to U.S. shale and fast-growing non-OPEC supply alongside renewable energy. 

Inventory swings will matter less over time. If renewable energy keeps scaling, oil demand growth could slow rather than stall, making inventory buildups more common and keeping prices low ($50–$70/barrel). 

In short, geopolitical risks and OPEC+ decisions have already caused—and will likely continue to cause—wild price swings in 2025, but long-term trends like the energy transition and emerging oversupply look set to keep prices in a lower range from 2026 onward.

How to Trade and Invest in Oil 

Technical Oil Prices Forecast Q4 2025   

UKOUSD (UK Oil Spot) on the weekly timeframe shows a prolonged downtrend that began after peaking above 130 in 2022. Since then, price has remained under pressure, consistently trading below key moving averages, indicating persistent bearish momentum. Attempts to recover were capped near the 82.00–92.00 resistance zone, with subsequent failures reinforcing the longer-term bearish bias.

For illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

In recent weeks, the price tested the 72.00 area but failed to sustain a breakout, slipping back below the 20-week and 50-week moving averages. The latest candles show bearish closes with longer upper wicks, reflecting selling pressure at higher levels. Price is now hovering around 71.00, and if this weakness persists, the focus may shift toward the 67.00–65.00 zone.

Momentum indicators confirm this bearish tone. The RSI sits near 44, below the 50-neutral line, suggesting a lack of bullish momentum. The Stochastic oscillator has crossed down from overbought territory, pointing to continued downside risk. The ATR has remained subdued, indicating a compression in volatility but still showing enough range to allow for further declines. Key resistance remains at 72.00 and 82.00, while support is aligned at 67.00 and then deeper at 60.00.

The primary scenario favors continued weakness, with price gradually moving toward 67.00 support. A decisive break below 67.00 could open the path to the psychological 60.00
handle, which has historically acted as strong support. Bears are likely to stay in control as long as oil trades below the 72.00–74.00 resistance zone.

An alternative scenario would see a bounce from current levels back above 72.00, which could trigger short-covering toward the 50-week and 200-week moving averages near 76.00–78.00. A sustained break above 82.00 would be required to confirm a trend reversal, though this remains a lower-probability outcome for now.

Current Market Situation 

At present, Brent crude oil is trading below the key support level at 70.00, hovering near 66.00, an area that has previously triggered reversals. However, despite its historical significance, the decisive break and subsequent price action appear weak, suggesting that sellers remain dominant. The latest candlesticks indicate a lack of strong bullish momentum, raising concerns about whether any retest of the broken support will hold in the current market environment. 

Technical indicators further highlight the precarious nature of the situation. The Stochastic Oscillator is currently hovering in oversold territory, which often suggests that price could be due for a short-term bounce. Similarly, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped into extreme oversold conditions. These signals suggest that the market is stretched to the downside and that a temporary recovery could be on the horizon. However, oversold conditions alone do not guarantee a reversal; rather, they indicate that price is extended and may be approaching a critical inflection point. 

The key concern for bulls is the failure to reclaim higher levels in previous bounce attempts. Recent rallies have stalled well below 75.00 – 76.34, where the moving averages converge, reinforcing this area as a powerful resistance zone, while 70.00 has now turned into near-term resistance. As long as price remains below these moving averages, any recovery attempts will likely be met with selling pressure. This suggests that absent a strong bullish catalyst, the broader downtrend has persisted, with the risk skewed to the downside amid expectations that OPEC+ will begin unwinding production cuts by September and with the EIA now projecting Brent to average below 60.00 in Q4 2025 and just above 50.00 in 2026.

Future Scenarios and Possible Outcomes 

Scenario 1: Bullish Corrective Bounce from 65.00–66.00 (recovery towards 68.00 – 70.0

If 65.00–66.00 continues to hold as support, Brent crude could see another bounce, similar to past price reactions at key levels. Given that the market is currently in oversold conditions and has recently printed a Harami reversal near the lower Bollinger Band, a short-term rally towards the 68.00 – 70.00 region is a plausible scenario. This area is significant because it aligns with the underside of the broken 70.00 handle and declining moving averages (50-day, 100-day, and 200-day), which have already rejected price multiple times. 

If bullish momentum is strong enough to push price beyond this zone, a further move towards 72.00–75.00 could unfold, although the 75.00–76.00 band remains a heavier cap within a broader downtrend and an EIA outlook that sees 2025 averaging near the mid-$60s. 

For this scenario to play out, confirmation signals are necessary. A bullish candlestick pattern, such as a Harami or an engulfing candle near the 65.00–66.00 support area, would provide early indications of a reversal. Additionally, a crossover in the Stochastic Oscillator and a rebound in RSI would further support the case for a corrective recovery. A break back above 70.00 would serve as a strong confirmation that buyers have gained control in the short term, opening the door for a move toward higher resistance levels.

Scenario 2: Breakdown Below 70.00 (bearish continuation to 68.00 – 65.00 and lower

After 70.00 failed to hold, a decisive breakdown accelerated selling pressure, leading to a move first towards the next major support at 68.00 and then lower toward 65.00, which is now being tested with Brent trading near the mid-$65s. This level represents a minor psychological support zone, but if selling pressure remains strong, price could extend lower toward 62.00 and then 58.00, in line with the EIA’s view for sub-$60 Brent into Q4 2025 and around $50 in 2026. Given the prevailing bearish trend, this scenario remains likely, especially as OPEC+ winds down production cuts into September 2025, increasing supply faster than demand. 

The key confirmation signal for this bearish scenario was a daily candlestick closing firmly below 70.00, ideally accompanied by increased volume. Additionally, if RSI remains below 30 and does not recover, it would suggest that selling pressure remains intact. Another bearish signal to watch for is the Stochastic Oscillator failing to turn higher, which would indicate a lack of buying interest even at current low prices. A decisive daily close beneath 65.00 with rising volume would further confirm downside momentum and keep the focus on lower supports consistent with the EIA’s medium-term outlook. 

Conclusion

Brent crude oil futures are currently trading just below 66.00, with 65.00 acting as a critical inflection point. The overall trend remains bearish, with price struggling to reclaim the key moving averages. Technical indicators suggest oversold conditions, hinting at a potential short-term bounce, but without clear confirmation—and with inventories set to build and OPEC+ moving to unwind production cuts by September—downside risks remain significant. 

The next major move depends on whether 65.00 holds or breaks. A bullish scenario would see price rebounding toward 68.00 – 70.00, with a possibility of extending to 72.00 if momentum is strong. However, if sellers manage to push price below 65.00, it could lead to further declines toward 63.00 and 60.00. 

For now, traders should closely monitor price action around 65.00, watch for potential bullish reversal patterns or a decisive breakdown, and use key technical signals to confirm the next move. Given the current conditions—and the EIA’s guidance that Brent could average around 58.00 in Q4 2025—maintaining a flexible approach and preparing for both scenarios will be essential in navigating the next phase of Brent crude’s price action.

To learn more about technical analysis as a forecasting tool visit NAGA Academy. 

Oil Brands 

When talking about the commodity oil traded on financial markets, we can distinguish two types. The most popular and among the most traded is US Oil, also known as WTI (about $63/bbl in August 2025). The other popular variant is UK Oil, also known as Brent (a North Sea benchmark, about $66/bbl). 

How to Trade and Invest in Oil 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) 

Light sweet crude oil (WTI) is widely used in US refineries and is an important benchmark for oil prices, with recent trading around $65 per barrel (August 2025). WTI is a light oil with a high API gravity and low sulfur content. This expresses the density of the oil in relation to water. WTI oil is widely traded between oil companies and investors. Most trading is done through futures via CME Group (NYMEX). The Light Sweet Crude Oil (CL) future is one of the most traded futures worldwide and is physically delivered at Cushing, Oklahoma. 

Much of the commercial storage and the delivery point for this grade is in Cushing, an important hub for Oklahoma's oil industry. Here is large storage tanks connected to pipelines that transport the oil to all United States regions. WTI is an important feedstock for refineries in the Midwestern United States and on the coast of the Gulf of Mexico.

Trade Light Sweet Crude Oil

Brent Crude Oil 

Brent oil is an important benchmark for the petroleum rate, especially in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East. Its name is derived from the Brent oil field in the North Sea. This Royal Dutch Shell (now Shell plc) oil field was once one of Britain's most productive oil fields, and most of the platforms there have since been decommissioned.  

The correlation between these two futures' price development is high, and we have seen several times in recent years that Brent's price was more than $10 higher than the comparable WTI contract during periods of market stress, while in 2025 the difference has generally been more moderate. At the end of 2020, the difference was approximately $3,00, and as of August 2025 it typically ranges around $2,00–$5,00, with Brent near $66 per barrel. Such differences are caused, among other things, by supply and demand, including the costs of shipping or storing oil.

Trade Brent Oil

Oil Price Prediction for 2025, 2026-2030 

Oil price forecasts from major institutions show a mix of near-term softness and longer-term uncertainty. For 2025-–2026, analysts now generally expect Brent crude to fluctuate between the upper-$50s and mid-$70s per barrel, influenced by OPEC+ production increases and geopolitical tensions. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan forecast mid-$70s and mid-$60s averages for 2025, respectively, anticipating any supply-risk-driven spikes to be brief before gradual declines into 2026, while the EIA projects Brent near $58 in late 2025 and around $51 in 2026.

Looking toward 2030, projections diverge significantly. While Fitch Ratings and the EIA foresee prices stabilizing in the $60–$73 range due to oversupply and slower demand growth, other models suggest potential extremes. Energy consultancies warn prices could either collapse toward $40 with accelerated renewable adoption or surge past $100 if emission targets stall, though these outcomes are framed as scenario risks rather than central cases. Common themes across forecasts include the growing impact of energy transition policies, non-OPEC+ production growth, (notably in the U.S. and Brazil), and demand uncertainties from evolving tariff landscapes.

Here are the most important oil price predictions released or updated by some of the most influential financial institutions in the world today:

EIA’s Forecast: Steady Growth and Inventory Increases

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) now forecasts Brent at about $67 in 2025 and $51 in 2026, citing large inventory builds driven by aggressive OPEC+ supply growth and high but slowing U.S. output. As of August 2025, the EIA provides no 2030 price target or stabilization near $73. 

Goldman Sachs' Forecast: Volatility Amid Geopolitical Risks

Goldman Sachs now projects Brent around $59 per barrel in Q4 2025, with rallies capped by high inventories and OPEC+ supply, before easing to about $56 by late 2026. Their long-term outlook highlights downside from elevated stocks and normalized spare capacity, anchoring 2026 near $56. In extreme geopolitical scenarios, such as major Middle East disruptions, Goldman Sachs flags the potential for temporary spikes, though its latest outlook does not include an explicit $100 call for 2025.

ING Oil Forecast: OPEC+ Supply Cuts and Market Adjustments

ING now forecasts Brent to roughly $74–76/bbl in 2025, down from an earlier $80 view. They expect OPEC+ to gradually restore production through late 202—already underway—creating a surplus that pressures prices into 2026. ING emphasizes weaker demand growth and rising non‑OPEC+ output as key drivers of this trend.  

Fitch Ratings' Conservative Projection: Oversupply and Declining Prices

Fitch Ratings continues to project Brent will average about $70 in 2025, slipping to $65 in 2026 and $60 by 2030, though the EIA and other major forecasters now see lower 2025–2026 averages amid rising inventories. Their conservative outlook reflects expectations of oversupply from OPEC+ countries and slowing global consumption, trends that have persisted in 2025 alongside increasing non‑OPEC supply. Fitch also warns of potential downside risks, including aggressive tariff policies or faster than expected transitions to renewable energy. 

Diverging Long-Term Projections: Uncertainty in Future Oil Prices

Longer-term forecasts vary widely. The EIA’s latest reference case places Brent around $95 by 2050, with a scenario range of roughly $48–$173, while energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie has cautioned that aggressive decarbonization could push prices towards the low-$40s by 2030. Algorithm-based models like Trading Economics and Wallet Investor still flag paths above $100 by 2030, though these remain speculative and are not supported by current baseline projections from major agencies. 

Algorithm-based (AI) Oil Price Forecasts  

Crude oil is now expected to trade near $67.22/bbl in 2025, according to the latest EIA STEO models and market inventories analysis. Current projections suggest Brent eased from about $71/bbl in July 2025 toward $58/bbl by Q4 2025, then toward roughly $50/bbl in early 2026 as global production outpaces demand.

Long Forecast that WTI crude will fluctuate between approximately $54.80–$64.00/bbl through late 2025 with a gradual descent into 2026, driven by OPEC+ supply adjustments and US shale output peaking near 13.6 million bpd by December 2025 before easing. WTI is now projected to average in the upper-$50s to low-$60s this year, maintaining a $4–6 discount to Brent. 

McKinsey's 2040 equilibrium model revised long-term oil prices downward to the $50-–60/bbl range (pre-COVID: $65-–75), citing flattened production cost curves and energy transition pressures. OPEC counters with bullish demand projections of 120mn b/d by 2050 (about +18mn b/d from 2023), driven by non-OECD growth.

Structural shifts emerge in price drivers:

• US sanctions on Russian exports no longer account for 1.2mn bpd supply risk
• Energy transition pressures could cap prices at $75-85 through 2030
• OPEC+ accelerated the unwinding of its 2.2mn bpd cuts, with full restoration agreed for September 2025, and sub-$60 scenarios are now expected in late-2025/early-2026 amid inventory builds, with Brent widely forecast in the high-$50s by Q4 2025.

McKinsey's accelerated transition model highlights substantial post-2030 replacement needs despite demand headwinds, but recent forecasts point to slower non-OPEC+ supply growth after 2026 and no firm $60-70/bbl equilibrium through 2040.

When looking for oil-price predictions, it's important to remember that analysts' forecasts may be wrong. This is because their projections are based on a fundamental and technical study of WTI and Brent oil commodities’ historical price movements. But past performance and forecast are not reliable indicators of future results. 

The AI oil price forecast shown is generated using algorithmic and AI-based models. These models rely on historical data and assumptions, which may not capture future market conditions accurately. Outcomes may differ significantly from forecasts.

It is essential to do your research and always remember your decision to trade depends on your attitude to risk, your expertise in the market, the spread of your investment portfolio, and how comfortable you feel about losing money. You should never invest money that you cannot afford to lose. 

How Did the Price of Crude Oil Change Over Time? 

Below is a chart of Brent Crude Oil, one can clearly see the descending trendline and the well-respected 70$ price barrier that has recently been broken.

For illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

A Recent History of Oil 

At the end of April 2020 (due to the Saudi and Russia conflict - more on that later), the oil price crashed, and the May WTI future even dipped below $0. The stock markets recovered strongly during the summer, and the oil price had also found its way up again. In August, the oil price rose well above $ 40 a barrel. With that price, the largest oil companies got some air also, but it was still far from enough for most to make a profit. 

At the beginning of August 2025, the oil price had suddenly fallen hard again. Simultaneously with renewed risk-off in the US stock markets, a crude oil barrel’s worth slid by roughly 10–15% from early-summer levels to the low-to-mid $60s, with WTI around $63 a barrel and Brent near $ 66 a barrel. This pushed prices back toward the lower end of the recent range. The drop is partly because OPEC+ accelerated the unwinding of earlier production cuts and because global supply is now rising faster than demand, alongside concerns about large inventory builds in the months ahead.

The current imbalance between rising supply and slower demand growth could thwart a smoother market rebalancing and decrease refining margins. With several refineries trimming runs again, it seems they want to prevent oil stocks from rising back to record levels, yet inventories have still been building. The oil price was able to recover so strongly in recent years thanks to the OPEC+ countries' agreements regarding the reduction in production., but these curbs are now being rolled back more quickly than initially planned. However, with budgets under pressure, many countries are looking for additional income sources. Therefore, some countries are not fully complying with the agreements made, and U.S. crude output has hovered near record highs as well. As a result, more oil flows into the market, which also has a depressing effect on oil prices.

March 9th, 2020: 30% Oil Price Crash 

Monday, March 9th, entered the history books as "Black Monday" for the oil price, with Brent crude plunging roughly 30% in its biggest one-day fall since the Gulf War. Negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Russia had come to nothing, setting off a price war on top of the mounting COVID-19 shock.  

The oil price had already been under pressure in the previous months due to the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19). The world economy was on the back burner, and as a result, the oil demand had declined considerably. By limiting oil production, the countries that are part of the oil cartel hoped to stabilize or increase the price themselves. Saudi Arabia, in particular, had been strongly in favor of limiting oil production. within OPEC+.

Saudi Arabia then tried to force Russia in another way to join the OPEC plan. The Saudis announced steep price discounts and moved to increase production markedly—to as much as 12.3 million barrels per day from about 9.7 million—flooding the market with oil. As a result, Brent opened more than 30% lower on March 9 while WTI fell about 20%, taking prices to their lowest levels since 2016 and triggering market turmoil worldwide. A low oil price is disastrous for most countries, and most OPEC members remained heavily reliant on hydrocarbon revenues despite early diversification efforts. In the immediate aftermath, prices and equities staged a brief rebound the next day, but volatility persisted until OPEC+ ultimately returned to coordinated cuts in April 2020.

America's shale producers were indeed hit hardest in 2020. The shale revolution proved more and more to be built on quicksand, as costs stayed high and many new wells delivered steeper decline curves. Even with an oil price of around $60 a barrel, many of these producers had already been struggling. The unrest surrounding the coronavirus made it difficult to raise external capital, and a wave of bankruptcies and consolidations followed. With Saudi Arabia pushing the oil price further down at the time, the situation became untenable for many producers, although survivors later adapted through efficiency gains and hedging. Players with a fragile balance and relatively high costs largely did not make it, and the sector that remained grew more disciplined as prices recovered and OPEC+ managed supply through intermittent quota adjustments. What Saudi Arabia failed to achieve in 2016 ultimately happened in 2020: Russia returned to the table, OPEC+ agreed to historic production cuts in April, and the market has since oscillated but recovered into the mid-2020s.

April 21st, 2020: WTI Goes Below Zero 

In April 2020, we saw a situation in the oil markets that had never occurred before. The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI) futures contract for May fell more than 100%. On April 20, the price fell during the day and took an unprecedented dive later in the day to $37.63/barrel, meaning that sellers were effectively paying buyers to collect the oil. 

This was mainly because storage capacity in Cushing, Oklahoma was near full. And it is precisely there that this oil is delivered. Traders and large companies who were long at the time but ran out of storage capacity or liquidity were forced to close futures before expiry, and since then there has been no repeat of negative prices as exchanges and regulators tightened risk controls, margining, and delivery protocols around expiry. 

Shale Oil Influence 

Oil production increased rapidly, and OPEC was not happy about this. They saw the surge in U.S. shale supply as competition. OPEC, therefore, came up with the idea of ​​fully opening the oil taps by refusing to cut output in late 2014. The production costs of shale oil were at that time many times higher. The result was a drop in oil prices from about $110 a barrel to below $30 at the beginning of 2016. OPEC hoped to wipe out shale producers in this way.  

This strategy failed, and the OPEC countries themselves ultimately suffered considerable disadvantages from this strategy. For years they saw their income more than halved, and later resorted to OPEC+ production cuts that were unwound in stages starting in 2025. In the meantime, the shale producers have learned to work cheaper and more efficiently, and they are already profitable at a lower oil price. What’s typical of this form of oil extraction is that production can be increased quickly , even though by 2025 the era of explosive growth has passed and U.S. shale output is roughly flat to slightly lower while OPEC+ raises supply into a $75–$85 market. 

OPEC Influence 

Demand for oil has remained broadly stable in recent years. But it is also apparent that there is a lot of extra supply on the market now that American oil production is at historically high levels, even if the pace of growth has moderated. Shale oil, in particular, is extracted from the ground here. The shale revolution was set in motion in the late 2000s and accelerated by the sharp rise in oil prices in the early 2010s. This form of oil extraction was therefore profitable, despite the high production costs, and efficiency gains have since lowered break-even levels. Due to the attractive market, the oil companies sprang up like mushrooms , although investment has become more disciplined since 2020. 

OPEC is trying to manage production to keep the oil price at a reasonable level. Most countries benefit from a somewhat higher, but in any case, stable, oil price. According to OPEC, the oil industry must invest more than $11,000 billion over the next 20 years. If producers don't do that, there will be a shortage. In principle, shale farmers can respond quickly to price signals, but have not invested enough in recent years to absorb a large part of these potential shortages on their own.

Furthermore, OPEC states that demand continues to increase despite the emergence of electric cars and the like. OPEC writes that the massive expansion of air travel and petrochemicals creates a greater demand for oil than the emergence of alternative energy sources can diminish, although the growth rate is slowing.  

Since the low oil price in 2016, OPEC has been trying to support the oil price. This is done by agreeing on production adjustments with all countries that are members of OPEC and their partners in OPEC+, with cuts in earlier years and, in mid-2025, increases in output as inventories fell and demand held up. The agreements do not always go smoothly, as Iran and Iraq do not always adhere to these agreements. On the other hand, the US and other countries continue to produce large volumes of oil, keeping prices under pressure at times, while policy shifts and geopolitical tensions have also made prices more volatile for a long time.

Factors That May Affect the Price of Crude Oil 

We know that oil is an indispensable raw material in the world and that it is used both as raw material and fuel to make plastics, pharmaceuticals, and many other products. Hence, the demand for oil remains strong though and these industries increases while production stagnates, it will lead to higher prices for this commodity. Of course, and vice versa, if these industries are in a recession, their oil demand will be lower, so demand will decline. If production remains stable or increases in this case, it will logically lead to a drop in the price of a crude oil barrel. This is precisely what has characterized much of 2025 so far: global supply growth has outpaced demand growth, commercial inventories have been building, and benchmark prices such as Brent have generally traded below $70 per barrel, with many outlooks for 2026 near the high‑$50s if stocks continue to rise.

As you will have understood, it is mainly by analyzing the difference between supply and demand that you will determine how the price of crude oil will evolve. 

It should also be noted that this analysis is slightly more complex today than it used to be. Until a few years ago, it was pretty easy to understand how these prices would behave. At the time, the US was the largest consumer of crude oil. On the other hand, OPEC was the main supplier to the market in terms of production. But over time and the years, this situation has become more complex and slightly more confusing. The United States is not only a top consumer but also the world’s largest producer as of 2025, while OPEC’s influence is now exercised through OPEC+ policy decisions alongside growing supply from non‑OPEC producers. 

One explanation for this phenomenon is that oil drilling technologies have improved greatly and resulted in better supply, notably through U.S. shale and deepwater developments, with new capacity added in several countries. Besides, we have seen the emergence of alternative solutions on the demand side through electrification and renewable energy, which are beginning to temper long‑term oil demand growth even though oil remains dominant in the near term. Finally, new players have also joined, including China, still a major oil consumer in the world, and India, whose rising consumption has become increasingly important for global demand trends.

Below we have listed factors that change the supply or demand for oil and thus contribute to the evolution of this commodity's price. 

1. Production data in barrels per day from OPEC countries Too much production generally leads to lower oil prices per barrel and vice versa. US crude oil inventory data is published weekly, which also affects WTI.	2. Supply, which is published weekly on the economic calendar. Big supply also contributes to falling prices, while little supply leads to higher prices.
3. The international geopolitical situation Conflicts affecting the oil-producing and exporting countries often influence the development of the price per barrel.	4. The value of the US dollar on the currency market.  As a barrel of oil is denominated in dollars, this currency will be weaker, and more oil purchases will be stimulated by holders of other currencies.

Final words 

Make sure to create a free demo account on NAGA.com, which remains a useful multi-asset platform for both novice and expert traders. You will be up to date on data and market insights, and the user-friendly interface—with TradingView integration—will come in handy if you decide to trade crude oil or any other commodity.   

If you look at the price changes of oil for a while now, you may see patterns, but they are driven by unpredictable forces—geopolitics, OPEC moves, and economic cycles—so as an investor, respond with care.

If you want to invest in oil, it can seem smart to get in when the price hits a bottom, but this timing approach is speculative and risky. There is no guarantee that oil prices will match past highs, and the energy transition and policy shifts still shape long‑term demand. Oil is finite and important, but it is not uniquely “the most precious” and its role is changing as renewables and EVs expand. Investing in commodities can diversify your overall portfolio, though they are volatile and diversification does not guarantee profits or protect against losses. 

Sources:

• https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm
• https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-august-2025   
• https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf      
• https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-ratings-changes-global-oil-gas-sector-outlook-to-deteriorating-11-06-2025    

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