For most of the past year or so, investors and analysts were mostly focused on guessing the timing and size of the Federal Reserve's cutting cycle, identifying that as the main driver for any broad-based dollar decline. By mid-2025 it became clear that markets had largely priced out imminent Fed cuts, with policymakers maintaining a cautious, data-dependent stance that kept the Greenback underpinned. Political factors are consistently downplayed by Fed chair Jerome Powell, yet subtle references to data risks and financial conditions remain in place.
Experts think foreign exchange traders must consider more. And it's not just about politics in the US and the Eurozone. It's also about the underlying central bank and economic fundamental stories that can make or break FX rallies in the many risk-on/dollar-off windows they expect to see in the coming months.
With EUR/USD up nearly 5% year-over-year, the pair has been consolidating its gains, and short-term trend measures still point to an upward bias while the broader range holds.
In the end, a lot will depend on how the economic data changes. This will furthermore depend on the new policies implemented by US President Trump. While no major new tariffs have been implemented as of August 2025, the possibility remains a market risk that could catalyze higher US prices if enacted. It will also depend on how the central bankers in question behave, but the latest Euro to Dollar forecasts now balance potential ECB easing against a patient Fed rather than focusing solely on ECB cuts. Along with updated EUR/USD price predictions and speculations of the pair’s recent tendency to grind higher, analysts flag resistance near 1.1705–1.1720 and initial support around 1.1500–1.1440, with several outlooks pointing to a late-2025 range centered around 1.1430–1.1710; some models place EUR/USD near 1.16 by end-Q3 and around 1.14 over a 12‑month horizon, keeping policy divergence, data surprises, and geopolitics at the core of the debate.
Key Euro to Dollar (Eur/Usd) Forecast & Price Predictions
- Euro to Dollar forecast Q4 2025: Analysts noted that any US‑macro‑driven rally close to 1.16 (MA 200) – after 1.10 repeatedly blocked advances in 2024 – offered opportunities for strategic EUR/USD selling in the months that followed.
- Euro to Dollar forecast 2025: Political developments in the Eurozone and in the US, as well as easing cycles from other central banks, continue to get in the way of a broad-based dollar decline. If a central bank cuts their interest rate this typically causes less demand for a currency. Specifically, experts now forecast the euro to dollar rate to finish 2025 around 1.14–1.17.
- EUR/USD price prediction for the next 5 years: The pair is still seen as undervalued in real terms according to ING and, based on current interest rate projections, EUR/USD is expected to trade in the 1.17–1.22 range in the next years, with sustained moves above 1.20 more likely into 2026.
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Euro to Dollar (EurUsd) Forecast 2025 – Fundamental
While the U.S. Federal Reserve is remaining on hold for now, the European Central Bank (ECB) paused after eight cuts over the past year, leaving refi at 2.15% and deposit rate at 2.0%.
Euro forecast
According to the latest forex forecasts for H2 2025, if you are searching for a star performer, don’t overlook the euro. Aside from political uncertainty, eurozone activity surveys have stabilized and improved; on another note, earlier ECB cuts have given way to a pause, and the common currency has firmed. Falling inflation has persisted, enabling the central bank to data now point to modest growth rather than contraction. Further rate cuts are now seen as limited, which has eased pressure on the EUR as well.
Further 2025 rate cuts not a done deal
One might have thought the EUR/USD could have done a little better - but despite the ECB’s eight consecutive rate cuts through June 2025, leaving the main refinancing rate at 2.15% and the deposit facility at 2.00%, the EUR has been able to gear up some momentum. As discussed in our previous Euro to Dollar forecast update in June, the ECB has made it clear that there is no strict forward guidance and sticky services inflation, even as headline reached 2% in June, now casts doubt on whether the ECB will deliver any further rate cuts in 2025.
Yet EUR/USD has strengthened a little. Perhaps this is a function of a slight rise in optimism for world growth, where the ECB has now raised its short-term activity assessment to the upside. The absence of any major domestic political shock in Germany might also favor positive momentum ahead rather being in an economic friendly environment.
It is important to remember that typical rate-cutting cycle in the Eurozone continues to be assessed rather than extended. In the past, easing cycles had always been triggered by recessions or crises. Fortunately, neither of these is currently the case but there might be fresh signs on the horizon. Therefore, any further rate cuts will not be on autopilot. In fact, the ECB must find a balance between potential reputational damage and rising concerns about an overly optimistic inflation forecast and is now inclined to pause and wait for more data.
Lower energy prices have enabled the eurozone economy to return to growth and the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut rates. In particular a de-escalation of the war in the Ukraine would support positive sentiment in this case, but the conflict has not ended and remains a key uncertainty. We see the economy edging back toward potential growth by mid 2025 as broadly achieved, with inflation at 2% since June 2025 and expected to hover around or slightly below that level into late 2025.
ECB forecasted to cut until 2.5%
S&P Global Ratings expects GDP growth to accelerate from 0.7% in 2024 to 1.2% this year, as lower commodities prices, especially energy prices, allow terms of trade to rebalance, disinflation to continue, and real incomes to recover.
Barring any significant new shock, the 2% inflation target proved to be in reach and was achieved by mid-2025, as a rebound in productivity, moderation in profit margins, and slower wage growth brought core inflation down further.
They expect a return to potential growth in 2025, with inflation at 2% by mid-year. This permitted the ECB to cut rates by 25 basis points again during Q2 2025 and into July, until the deposit rate reached 2.0%, at which point the easing cycle paused pending new data, rather than bottoming out at 2.5% in the third quarter of 2025.
German election to support the euro
The results of the most recent election are reflected in the most recent developments in German politics. In parliament, no party can get a majority in itself, however the win of 28.6% by the CDU/CSU will offer positive momentum moving forward. CDU’s Friedrich Merz is leading coalition talks to become the chancellor of Germany but needs to form a coalition with one other party. The likelihood that Merz as the party leader will form the government together with the Social Democratic party is now one option among several rather than a certainty. He has repeatedly denied talks with the Alternative for Deutschland, the right-wing party, which was able to achieve 20.8% of votes this time.
Problems might now resume, though, as the SPD was also part of the most recent government, with chancellor Olaf Scholz having not been able to lead the country until the end of the term after deliberately losing a confidence vote in November 2024. Hence, he called for a new election on February 23, 2025, where his party subsequently lost substantial votes, falling to 16.4%. Previous problems and different views might now be also taken over to the new government, should the coalition between the CDU/CSU and SPD, also referred to as the “Grosse Koalition” (grand coalition) be formed, though as of August 2025 coalition talks remain ongoing and other constellations are being explored.
In general, a Merz led government might indeed add new reforms, which are rather supposed to support the economy also helping the economy to potentially grow, although the specifics will depend on the final coalition agreement.
USD Forecast
Amid many crosscurrents, the dollar has softened since the beginning of 2025, slipping toward the high-90s on the DXY by mid-August. The outlook of the dollar might also show mixed signs with potential to head into either direction. The increasingly dovish tilt of the Federal Reserve might be one reason that the Greenback could soften further. Yet a brief, recent bout of strength has already taken a breather, and other currencies were able to capitalize against the dollar.
The question might be answered by US inflation data. Should price pressures remain sticky, the Fed has signaled it will move cautiously even as it is widely expected to begin cutting rates as soon as September. Also comments by President Trump have not caused the situation to change. Instead, the implementation of new tariffs on August 7— lifting the average US tariff rate to multi-decade highs — could even be a reason that inflation data gear up momentum again.
The US dollar is likely to drift lower, driven by softer economic data which appears to be paving the way for rate cuts beginning as early as September. However, a strong economy means the US public may have to wait longer than other developed countries before it can start to lower interest rates in a meaningful way. Over the next three months, the dollar is forecasted to ease, but the journey is likely to be choppy due to a robust inflation outlook from the Fed whereby it anticipates only reaching the 2% target in 2026, alongside safe-haven support amid ongoing trade tensions.
Fiscal policy, a looser under a Trump administration
Perhaps the biggest story this quarter, however, is what a Donald Trump presidency will mean for EUR/USD. It can be seen that the Trump government has continued to implement a looser fiscal policy and, at times, a steeper US yield curve, especially after the July 4, 2025, tax package that expanded the 2017 cuts and widened deficits. The foreign exchange aspect remains uncertain and has been further complicated by several factors, which still remain unknown. The absence of new US tariffs on goods from Australia keeps that currency pair an interesting one to observe.
Earlier reports of Trump appearing alongside Elon Musk from the White House were causing the press to react wild, but there was no verified joint action plan presented to cut government spending or to close entire departments. Proposals to trim outlays have been floated, yet there has been no confirmed offloading of thousands of members of staff across agencies; in some cases, like USAID rumors of full closure did not materialize. According to the administration, the actions of several agencies remain extremely inefficient and offer limited use for the public, prompting further internal reviews. Critical comments from the opposition followed suit. Some judges have also been asked to stop the current process, though courts have not halted the 2025 tax law or related regulatory changes. Trump might indeed favor a weaker dollar moving forward, but no formal policy has been enacted to make it happen.
Growth, Inflation, and the Labour Market – A Real Mixed Bag
Economic growth is moderating but still robust, disinflation is back on track, and the job market remains solid as recent data suggests. The Fed is hopeful that the strong labor market will usher in a soft landing when they potentially start to cut rates later in 2025. Currently two rate cuts have been priced into markets, whereas also only one rate decrease might be likely. Should growth deteriorate alongside the continued progress in inflation, US shorter-term yields have room to fall further and could weigh on the dollar. This has recently even been the case, as the slight demand in US bonds resumes some momentum.
At the center of the data will be inflation which had resurfaced during the October 2024 – January 2025 timeframe. However, current PCE price data shows that figures remain soft again, which could cause the Fed to act later this year if the trend holds. The Central Bank is more focused on the development of the personal spending price index than compared to the development of consumer prices in general. The 2% goal has hence come into closer proximity in recent months. Thanks to improved data earlier in the year, the Fed will likely look for more encouraging signs in the coming months in the hope to build the necessary confidence to finally cut interest rates once or even twice this year.
Fed to cut rates twice this year
The Federal Reserve has not cut interest rates so far this year, and expectations have shifted toward one or two reductions later in Q3 or Q4 as resilient U.S. consumer demand warrants a cautious approach despite easing inflation, according to a growing majority of economists in recent polls.
Declining price pressures over the past few months and recent signs of labor market weakness gave several members of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) "greater confidence" inflation will return to the U.S. central bank's 2% goal without a significant economic slowdown.
Markets grabbed that opportunity to price in one to two rate cuts this year. According to current market pricing and surveys, the cutting cycle in 2025 is now expected to begin later in the year, with September or November under consideration. Two potential rate cuts might bring the federal funds rate below the current 4.25%–4.50% range and closer to a neutral policy stance projected around 3.25%–3.50% by early 2026. A second-rate cut might then follow in December, which would depend on the momentum of the price development. Whether the rate will be cut to below the 4.00% level might remain in question.
Impact of Fed Rate Cuts on EUR/USD
EUR/USD has seen broadly divergent returns both in the year before and year after the first Fed rate cut of a new easing cycle: as of August 2025, the pair is holding near 1.17 with a neutral-to-upward bias as markets look toward an expected late-2025 start to Fed easing.
The 1980s cycles (1982, 1984, 1989) featured big EUR/USD gains versus the Deutsche Mark (DEM), equivalent to 7%+ drops in DEM/USD in the year before the Fed cut interest rates (the euro did not exist then).
Returns heading into the first Fed rate cut of an easing cycle have generally been strong over the past quarter-century, varying from -2% (2019) to +12% (2001)
EUR/USD returns in the year after the Fed starts cutting rates have varied from a DEM/USD proxy of +17% (1989) to -4% (1995) and -4% (2001)
On average, EUR/USD has fallen about -1% in the year before the Fed starts cutting interest rates and risen roughly 3% in the year after, though recent cycles have been more muted.
Perhaps contrary to popular opinion, the start of a new Fed rate cut cycle has NOT been a consistent bearish catalyst for the US dollar; if anything, the historical track record shows a modest bullish trend in the greenback, especially in the six months before and six months after the Fed starts easing policy., and 2025 price action has been consistent with that pattern despite anticipated late-2025 cuts and scope for further easing into early 2026.
How likely is the Euro to Dollar parity forecast?
What would then be required to restore parity between EUR and USD? ING believe that more divergence in Fed-ECB policy can be sufficient, but with the euro no longer under the kind of fundamental pressure that the energy crisis placed on its longer-term fair value, parity in 2025 is not the base case and would likely require a major shock. In practice, we may need to see the 2-year EUR/USD swap rate widening far beyond the -175bp low alongside a decisive risk-off backdrop, whereas most houses now project EUR/USD well above 1.00—around 1.15 to 1.22 into late 2025 and 2026—with spot trading in the mid-1.1s in August 2025.
To get the EUR/USD close to 1.00, markets would have to cause the Fed to even remain more hawkish in the coming months than currently discounted; instead, investors broadly anticipate Fed rate cuts later in 2025 that should weigh on the dollar. Another point apart from the Central Bank action can be seen with geopolitical tensions. Should the war in the Ukraine come to an end, the Eurozone might get back on its feet., but the euro’s sensitivity to such shocks has diminished compared to 2022. Furthermore, any shift toward a more economic friendly German policy mix could cause the economy to strengthen at the margin, which would be positive for the Euro. Earlier Reuters polling had expected the ECB to cut rates further towards the 2.0% area by mid 2025; the more recent consensus now places most of the remaining easing into 2026.
Professional forecasters have a slightly more constructive view and expec gradual euro gains rather than parity, with the ECB seen as dovish over the cycle but not dramatically so versus the Fed. One thing is for sure, that the European Central Bank will remain more dovish and rather ready to cut rates sooner as compared with the Fed in the US only insofar as growth and inflation allow, and not enough on its own to drive EUR/USD to 1.00. Should the recovery of the economy remain weak and risk sentiment tighten, the EUR might weaken soon again, increasing the odds that parity in the EURUSD currency pair can be approached, but for now most analysts view that outcome as a low-probability tail scenario
EurUsd Forecast – Technical Analysis
In the past, the pair was in a prolonged downtrend, bottoming near parity before beginning a sustained recovery. The corrective structure transitioned into a consolidation phase throughout much of 2023 and early 2024, where the pair oscillated sideways around the moving averages. This phase was marked by repeated rejections at resistance zones but also consistent support around the 1.05–1.07 region, building a broader base before the breakout that followed.
The recent price action has been bullish, with EURUSD surging above the 1.15 resistance zone and reaching highs near 1.1870. The candles show strong impulsive momentum followed by a consolidation just below the 1.20 psychological barrier. Buyers have maintained control, as the pullbacks have been shallow and contained above the 1.15 breakout level, which now acts as strong support.
Indicators suggest that momentum remains favorable for the bulls. The RSI at 63 points toward bullish bias but not yet overbought, leaving room for further upside. The stochastic oscillator is hovering near the upper zone around 70–80, reflecting strong buying pressure but showing potential for near-term pauses. Moving averages are now aligned bullishly, with price trading comfortably above the 50-, 100-, and 200-week MAs. The 1.15 zone serves as firm support, while resistance levels to monitor lie at 1.1870 and the psychological 1.20 barrier.
The main scenario favors a continuation of the bullish trend, with price likely to attempt a break of the 1.1870–1.20 resistance cluster. A weekly close above 1.20 could trigger further upside momentum, opening the path toward 1.2055 and beyond. As long as EURUSD remains above 1.15, the structure supports sustained bullish momentum with higher lows reinforcing the trend.
An alternative scenario would involve a rejection from the 1.1870–1.20 zone, leading to a corrective pullback. In that case, the first support lies at 1.1685, followed by a deeper test of 1.15. A break back below 1.15 on weekly closes would weaken the bullish structure and potentially return the pair to consolidation between 1.12–1.15
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How do analysts see the market moving in the coming months and years? Below, we review projections: U.S. record highs, Fed-cut hopes, tech leadership, geopolitical risks.
Euro to Dollar Price Predictions 2025
Here we look at Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) forecast for 2025, spot 1.1688 and 1.15–1.20 consensus, including comments from highly rated FX strategists.
Euro To Dollar Forecast End-2025: 1.15 at BNP Paribas
Contrary to traditional views, BNP Paribas suggests that the euro could appreciate to 1.15 by the end of 2025, even in the event of a global recession. This outlook is attributed to the dollar's recent status as a high-yielding currency, which has contributed to depreciation as U.S. interest rates have begun to decline and the interest-rate differential narrows.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve's earlier aggressive rate hikes, which surpassed those of other central banks, have given way to a cutting cycle in 2025, and the euro's reduced sensitivity to market downturns—supported by European fiscal measures—continues to support this perspective.
Bearish Euro to Dollar price prediction 2025 from Credit Agricole
Credit Agricole anticipates a gradual euro decline, projecting the EUR/USD exchange rate to reach around 1.10–1.12 by late 2025. This outlook rests on anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, though weak growth outside the U.S, easing by other major central banks, and ECB caution toward a much stronger euro may limit the dollar’s decline and cap euro gains.
Bullish Euro to Dollar price prediction 2025 from Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs expresses skepticism about renewed U.S. dollar strength in the short term and suggests that the euro’s appeal has firmed, with EUR/USD seen approaching 1.25 over the next year. The firm highlights a cooling U.S. economy and waning foreign demand for U.S. assets and considers improving European fundamentals and inflows more likely to support the euro than pressure it.
Bullish Euro to Dollar Price Prediction 2025 from Scotiabank
Scotiabank analysts suggest that while the euro's rally may face challenges above the 1.17 level, bullish trends could support further gains. They now forecast the EUR/USD to consolidate near 1.17 (1.1650 - 1.1750) and keep a medium-term bullish view, with end-2025 around 1.16 - 1.17 and scope toward 1.22 into 2026, contingent on favorable data and sentiment.
Bullish Euro to Dollar price prediction from UBS
UBS has revised its forecasts, now expecting the EUR/USD to advance toward 1.20 and reach roughly 1.23 by June 2026. This projection considers potential shifts in economic conditions and monetary policies—especially a softer US dollar amid Fed easing relative to the ECB—that may favor euro appreciation over time.
Bearish Euro to Dollar Forecast 2025 from Wells Fargo
Analysts at Wells Fargo project that the EUR/USD exchange rate will remain above parity by the end of 2025, with recent guidance pointing to roughly 1.05–1.17 rather than the previously cited 0.9800. This forecast is influenced by expectations of moderating dollar strength amid expected Fed rate cuts and an ECB nearing the end of its easing cycle, even as U.S. economic resilience persists.
Neutral Euro to Dollar Forecast 2025 from Commerzbank
Analysts at Commerzbank had anticipated the euro strengthening to 1.12 against the dollar by June 2024, followed by a decline to 1.08 by March 2025; instead, it is around 1.17 as of August 2025, and the bank now looks for 1.16 by end‑2025 and 1.20 by end‑2026. Those calls assumed a 2024 U.S. recession and 150 basis points of Fed cuts; in reality, recession was avoided and easing was more limited. However, confidence in a 'soft landing,' alongside softer U.S. inflation and Fed‑easing expectations, has supported the euro lately.
Bullish Euro to Dollar Forecast from SocGen
Societe Generale notes that after a double-digit dollar decline in H1 2025 and amid expectations of narrowing rate differentials, U.S. outperformance is fading and eurozone growth is firming, pointing to further dollar weakness. This implies EUR/USD rising, with SocGen targeting around 1.17 by end-2025 rather than parity.
Bullish rate forecast from Rabobank
Rabobank analysts now foresee the EUR/USD exchange rate firming toward 1.15–1.20 rather than slipping to parity, with the euro trading around 1.16 lately and scope for gains as expectations of U.S. policy easing temper dollar support. This perspective is echoed by other institutions, reflecting a shift away from euro bearishness amid improved eurozone performance relative to the U.S.
EurUsd price predictions based on AI
Here are the August 2025 EURUSD price predictions from the most popular AI-based sources.
Wallet Investor
According to Wallet Investor's AI-driven analysis, the EUR/USD rate is expected to trade within a narrow range with slight declines alternating with periods of minimal growth. As of August 2025, Wallet Investor forecasts the EUR/USD pair to range approximately between 1.161 and 1.183, with monthly estimates such as 1.178 to 1.183 in August, 1.176 to 1.179 in September, and 1.163 to 1.170 by December 2025.
Stockinvest.us
The overall sentiment from Stockinvest.us suggests caution with a more negative EurUsd forecast for the pair in 2025. According to their analysis, the EUR/USD pair is showing sell signals from both short and long-term moving averages, suggesting a bearish forecast. Resistance levels are expected around 1.0400 and 1.0500; if the price breaks above these levels, it could trigger buy signals.
Longforecast.com
According to Long Forecast, the EUR/USD exchange rate is projected to experience a steady monthly growth throughout 2025. The forecast anticipates the EUR/USD rate to reach as high as 1.35 by December 2025, with continuous growth likely each month throughout the year.
*It is worth keeping in mind that both analysts and online forecasting sites can and do get their predictions wrong. The EurUsd price predictions based on AI are generated using algorithmic and AI-based models that rely on historical data and assumptions. Keep in mind that past performance and forecasts are not reliable indicators of future returns.
When considering EurUsd forecasts and price predictions for 2025 and beyond, it’s important to keep in mind that high market volatility and the macroeconomic environment make it difficult to produce accurate long-term EurUsd analyses and estimates. As such, analysts and forecasters can get their EurUsd forecast wrong.
It is essential to do your research and always remember your decision to trade depends on your attitude to risk, your expertise in the market, the spread of your investment portfolio, and how comfortable you feel about losing money. You should never invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
What Drives the Euro / US Dollar Currency Pair
The EUR/USD trend depends on what stage of the cycle the global economy is at. During a recession, the demand for safe-haven assets, including the US dollar, increases. As a result, the Eurodollar often goes down. In recent years, monetary policy divergence, interest rate differentials, and geopolitical factors have also played an outsized role.
During a recovery from a recession, investors are not that focused on preserving money. Retail investors search for ways to multiply the deposit. At this stage, the fundamentals driving the EUR/USD currency pair are the GDP growth rates and, even more, the monetary policy of central banks and the expected path of interest rates. In 2024–2025, the ECB began cutting rates ahead of the Fed, reducing the euro’s yield appeal and pressuring the currency.
A strong economy means a strong currency. The rapid rebound of GDP after the recession is a reason to buy securities of the country. In particular, the belief that the US economy would avoid a hard landing in 2024–2025 and maintain a growth and yield advantage over the Eurozone accompanied a strong S&P 500 performance into 2025. As a result, alongside capital flows and wider yield spreads, the US dollar was supported.
The GDP rate is a reliable indicator but, unfortunately, lagging. The GDP report is published a month or month and a half after the end of the quarter. Therefore, it is very difficult to determine whose economy is growing faster at a particular time, which doesn’t provide a clear picture of the current economic situation to investors. That is why forex traders have to monitor some leading macroeconomic indicators, such as the US and Eurozone PMIs, inflation, and labor market data.
The more the economy heats up, the more likely the central bank to raise the interest rates. However, by 2025 most major central banks had already ended quantitative easing and shifted to managing the timing and pace of rate cuts. As a result, the assets denominated in the local currency grow more attractively when relative yields rise. That is why the US dollar was firm into early 2025, while growing expectations of Fed cuts later in the year have limited further gains.
To understand the Fed’s intentions, one should track such indicators as inflation and unemployment rate. When these indicators move toward the thresholds set by the Fed, the central bank starts easing policy. In this case, the greenback may lose in value, especially if the ECB eases more slowly; conversely, if US yields remain higher, the dollar tends to stay strong.
Speeches of central bank representatives are important in forecasting the EUR/USD exchange rate. The officials’ comments give a clue on how the central banks’ policies could change, and investors could develop trading strategies based on this. Forward guidance on the rate path, balance-sheet plans, and risk assessments remains a key driver of the pair.
EUR/USD Trading Tips
- A necessary condition to look for buy opportunities in the long term is the sync trends in the global economy. If the US GDP features robust growth, but China and the euro area face problems, look for sell opportunities. However, in 2025 this signal is not sufficient on its own, so also weigh Federal Reserve and ECB policy guidance, inflation dynamics, and risk sentiment when judging EUR/USD direction.
- Monitor the global financial markets. If the S&P 500 and oil are rallying up simultaneously, it is not a standalone reason to buy the Euro versus US Dollar, as these correlations have been variable in recent years. If the stock index is growing and the oil is falling in value, or both financial assets are depreciating, do not treat this as a mechanical cue to sell the EURUSD. Instead, focus on interest-rate differentials, central bank communications, and high-impact macro releases to define the bias.
- Study the history of the financial asset’s quotes. An example that took place in the past may emerge in the future as a potential EUR/USD price movement, but validate such setups with backtesting and statistical checks before relying on them in live trading.
- Use technical indicators in trading the EUR/USD to determine the current market state and key support/resistance levels. If the Moving averages often cross the EURUSD chart, the market is trading flat. If the price chart is above the EMA, the trend is bullish; if the price is below the indicator, the underlying trend is bearish and many traders now add RSI or MACD and use multi‑timeframe confirmation to reduce false signals.
- Use Japanese chart patterns and western chart patterns like head and shoulders, double top and bottom, or triangles to identify entry and exit points. Confirm the pattern with momentum, volume, or clear price‑action triggers to improve reliability.
- Do not try to use all popular trading strategies; you’d better find the one that suits you best. Whether discretionary or algorithmic, keep risk management tight and stay alert to policy headlines and geopolitical developments that can move EUR/USD quickly.
- Always observe the rules of your online trading system.
EUR/USD price history
In the beginning, the EUR/USD currency pair was trading below parity. However, while the euro stayed above $1,00 for two decades after 2002, it briefly fell back below parity in 2022. The euro-dollar all-time low is about 0.8230 (October 2000); the record high is close to 1.604 (July 2008).
In 2020, the global economy faced a recession, which lasted for only two months. Because of the panic in financial markets, the demand for the Greenback sharply increased. As a result, the EURUSD dropped to a level of 1.064, the lowest since April 2017.
Central banks launched colossal monetary incentives of trillions of dollars to support their economies. The Fed acted very extreme and had cut their rate down from 1.75% to near 0.00% and started the Quantitative Easing at a monthly pace of $120 billion. The Federal Reserve balance sheet was growing rapidly, approaching $9 trillion, and the US dollar weakened against a basket of major currencies later in 2020. In particular, the euro ultimately advanced and reached $1.2340 in January 2021.
In late 2020, the euro was expected to rise further. Many banks suggested the EURUSD should have exceeded 1.2500 in 2021. Some aggressive bulls expected the euro to trade around $1.300. In the end, things turned out differently. Extended lockdowns in the EU, due to rising infections had caused a double recession, the euro lost sharp momentum again towards 1.1705.
Eventually, as infections on a global scale turned less severe also the economy was able to rise again. Governments had turned their focus away from the Covid- 19 pandemic. Furthermore, the EURUSD buyers were again encouraged to invest in the Euro as economic data had started to improve. Fed’s unwillingness to recognize a surge in US inflation also helped the common currency back then. The pair moved towards the 1.2260 level in late May. Bulls again were aiming at 1.2500, but the FOMC June projection broke the uptrend again. The Fed started talking about a potential rate hike in 2022, which encouraged investors to buy the US dollar and set the stage for an aggressive tightening cycle.
After falling from 1.2275 at the start of 2021, EUR/USD started 2022 at 1.1375. The price rose to a high of 1.1495 in early February before steadily dropping to a low of 1.0380 on May 13 – a level last seen in January 2017. By July–October 2022 the pair broke parity for the first time in two decades, sliding to around 0.95–0.96 amid Europe’s energy shock, the war in Ukraine, and rapid Fed hikes. In 2023 and 2024, EURUSD fluctuated mostly between 1.05 and 1.12 as policy and growth differentials ebbed and flowed. In 2025, the pair has traded in a broader 1.03–1.18 range and, as of August 19, 2025, is hovering near 1.17.
The pair briefly breached parity on 13 July, as markets reacted to US inflation figures. That was followed by an immediate rebound that sent EUR/USD back above 1.0100.
As of 15 July 2022, the pair has fallen over 12% year-to-date to trade around the 1.0000 level.
EUR/USD began 2022 at $1.1375, down from $1.2275 at the beginning of 2021. Early in February, the price of the pair reached a high of $1.1495 before progressively declining to a low of $1.0380 on May 13 - a level last reached in January 2017.
The pair fell below $0.99 on September 5 for the first time in 20 years as a result of Russia shutting down its main gas pipeline to the EU, severely jeopardizing the euro zone's economic prospects.
Midway through December, the EUR/USD traded back up to around the $1.06 level due to a weaker dollar and declining US Treasury yields. The ECB increased interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) as anticipated on December 15, reiterating that more hikes will follow, and outlining plans for quantitative tightening. However, the pair benefited from a general decline in the value of the US dollar as inflationary pressures in the country continued to subside.
The euro-to-dollar exchange rate started in 2023 at $1.0703 and increased during the month of January, topping $1.08 for a brief while. During the year, the pair traded sideways, with the trading range 1.05-1.10 violated only once in July, toward 1.1280, for a short period of time.
The recent trading range which traders had expected in 2023 and 2024 did come to an end in 2025. After such a small range the market did break out of such a trend, with EUR/USD pushing to about $1.1666 by mid-July. Since a vacuum had built up, a sudden breakout was on the cards; by August 19, 2025, the pair was trading around $1.168-$1.171, leaving the euro over 13% higher on the year.
Final words
It’s important to remember that any long-term forecasts, even the EUR/USD forecast, or any other currency pair, are too unreliable to believe in. As of August 19, 2025, EUR/USD is near 1.169 and many analyses see consolidation around 1.14–1.19 this year; still, too many factors may affect the rate of the currency pair, and it’s best to be up to date with what’s happening in the global arena in order to make realistic and reliable predictions.
If you do decide that trading this currency pair is something for you, and you believe in the future of the Euro vs. US Dollar pair, first, you need to decide on a suitable trading strategy for you and work it out first on a demo account, and then on a real account.
You can start in minutes by opening a trading account with NAGA.com! We provide a user-friendly trading app with an outlook for novices as well as experienced traders and investors.
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Sources:
- http://www.forecasts.org/euro.htm
- https://think.ing.com/articles/federal-reserve-preview-fed-to-hold-the-line-but-cuts-are-coming
- https://www.commerzbank.de/group/research/forecasts
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15
- https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO
- https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/economy/eurozone-outlook
- https://www.wellsfargo.com/cib/insights/economics/international-outlook
