IBEX 35 Price Analysis & Forecast

IBEX 35 Evolution 

The IBEX 35, Spain's principal stock market index, is currently exhibiting a positive trajectory. Analysts from Bankinter project a potential increase of approximately 9.2% for the IBEX 35, anticipating the index could reach around 12,500 points by the end of 2025.  
The index commenced 2025 with notable gains, opening at 11,610.9 points, reflecting a 0.14% rise in its initial session. This follows a robust performance in 2024, where the IBEX 35 appreciated by nearly 15%, marking its second consecutive year of growth. 

The IBEX 35 has also distinguished itself as one of Europe's most profitable stock markets, achieving double-digit returns. It is currently considered the second most affordable stock market in Europe, with a price-to-earnings ratio (PER) of 10.7 projected for 2025. Despite this, the anticipated profit growth for the 1BEX 35 in 2025 is modest at 1.6%, which is lower compared to other European markets 

IBEX 35 Fundamental Analysis

So, what drove the 2024 momentum, and what's the outlook for 2025? Let's break it down. 
 
Firstly, Spain's economic growth played a major role. The economy grew by 4.8%, boosting corporate earnings across sectors. Meanwhile, inflation closed the year at 2.8%, driven by rising fuel prices, though moderate inflation supported demand and revenue growth.  

Next, monetary policy was key. The European Central Bank's actions on interest rates affected market liquidity and borrowing costs. Higher rates benefited Spanish banks like BBVA and CaixaBank, where increased net interest margins translated to stock price gains. Banking executives even capitalized by selling shares.  

The energy sector also shined. Renewable energy players such as Solaria gained traction, reflecting global interest in sustainability-focused investments. Lastly, global economic trends influenced performance. Easing U.S inflation and stronger data from key economies lifted investor sentiment across international markets, including Spain. With a projected modest profit growth of 1.6% for 2025 and a forward P/E ratio of 10.7, the IBEX 35 remains competitively valued. Bankinter analyst project a 9.2% upside, targeting 12,500 points by year-end. 

Learn more about Fundamental Analysis

IBEX 35 Technical Analysis  

The IBEX 35, Spain's benchmark stock index, displayed distinct technical patterns in 2024 that set the stage for its 2025 performance. 

2024 Technical Overview

Support and Resistance Levels: The index began 2024 in consolidation, finding solid support near the 9, 800 level. By March, bullish momentum took hold, propelling the index past mid-year resistance into its deepest retracement. The 10,300 to 10,400 range contained further declines, sparking a powerful vertical rally that peaked near 12,000. Since then, the index has traded within an 800-point range between 11,300 and 12,100.

Moving Averages (MAs): The IBEX 35 has traded well above its 50- day and 100- day moving averages since early 2023, where a bullish 50 EMA crossover above the 100 EMA confirmed upward momentum “Image below”. However, caution is warranted; a downward crossover could indicate a trend reversal.

Chart Patterns: On the weekly timeframe chart above, a textbook flag pattern - a continuation pattern - dominates the price action from July onward. Conversely, the daily chart below presents an expanding triangle, signaling mixed sentiment with potential for a breakout in either direction.

2025 Technical Outlook

Resistance Breakout: Early in 2025, the index briefly broke above the 11,900 resistance level but quickly retreated to 11,800. A strong breakout above the Flag pattern could fuel further gains, while a downside break may trigger renewed bearish pressure. Technical Summary: Despite bullish leaning indicators like moving averages and continuation patterns-the market remains range-bound. Until a decisive breakout occurs, traders should approach with caution, mindful of potential volatility in either direction.  

IBEX 35 components: Winners and losers 

In 2024, the performance of the IBEX 35 components was largely shaped by the financial sector, as banks capitalized on the high-interest rate environment to deliver record-breaking results. This positioned them at the forefront of Spain's best-performing stocks Among the top performers, IAG (International Airlines Group) stood out, with an impressive rise of 103.76% driven by strong tourism and the robust services sector. This growth was further highlighted by IAG's return to dividends for the first time since 2019, showcasing the company's financial strength.

Banco Sabadell followed closely, gaining 68.64%, largely due to the takeover bid by BBVA, which saw a 14.9% increase by year-end. Other notable banking stocks included Unicaja (+43.15%), CaixaBank (+40.53%), and Bankinter (+31.82%), while Banco Santander showed more modest growth of 15.86%

Inditex, the largest company by market capitalization in Spain, also contributed significantly to the index with a 25.9% increase. Despite this, its growth had peaked at 43% earlier in the year before its latest results, which, though strong, failed to meet market expectations

On the downside, the energy and industrial sectors faced challenges, with many stocks posting negative results. Solaria led the losses with a dramatic drop of. 58%, followed by Grifols (-40.8%), impacted by short-seller accusations, and Acciona Energia (-36.6%). Other energy and industrial stocks like Enagás (-22.8%), Repsol (-13%), and ArcelorMittal (-12.8%) also struggled, largely due to fluctuations in raw material prices and weak global manufacturing, especially in China.  

A unique case was Puig (-27.2%), which despite its successful stock market debut and entry into the IBEX 35 in July, failed to convince investors of its long-term potential. 

IBEX Index Forecast 2025 – 2027 

Spain's benchmark index has had an exciting run lately, and it's time to explore what could be next. Several algorithm-based forecasting services gave their estimates for the future value of the Spain 35 index.

GovCapital offers an optimistic scenario, forecasting an average of 45,193.49 points in mid-2027. These wide-ranging predictions reflect the uncertainties of long-term market dynamics. Now, turning to the technical and fundamental outlook--2024 has been predominantly bullish. Financial institutions, especially banks, have benefited from interest rates increase, while energy and industrial stocks have faced headwinds. The IBEX 35 currently trades between 11,300 and 12,100 points, with technical indicators pointing to a potential breakout. A push past 12,500 points could be on the cards.

According to Bankinter, the IBEX 35 is forecast to hit 12,500 points by 2025, representing a 9.2% gain. Sectors like tourism, financials, and consumer demand could fuel growth, though inflation and global market volatility present challenges.

For 2026, Traders Union projects the index surpassing €14,000, with global economic factors particularly China's influence on raw materials, playing a pivotal role by 2027, if bullish momentum holds and geopolitical risks stay moderate, the IBEX 35 could aim for 14,500 points or more. Banking consolidation, tech innovation, and a stable economy will be key drivers. However, central bank policy shifts and energy price volatility remain a potential risk. 

IBEX 35 key components price prediction 

The Spanish IBEX 35 remains a focal point for investors looking for insights into Spain's top companies. Let's explore the one-year forecasts for its key components. 

Inditex (Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A.)

With a current price of €50.36, Inditex IS showing strong momentum. According to analysts from TipRanks, the 12-month price target averages €55.00, with estimates ranging from a low of €50.00 to a high of €60.00 This points to a potential upside of 9.2%. 

Iberdrola, S.A

Iberdrola trades at €13.26. Analysts project the average 12-month price target at €14.50, ranging between €13.00 and €15.50. This translates to a potential upside of 9.3%, highlighting continued optimism for Spain's leading utility company. Banco Santander, S.A. Currently priced at €4.78, Banco Santander's forecast by TipRanks shows an average price target of €5.70, with a high of €6.50 and a low of €4.70. Investors could see a potential 19.2% upside, reflecting confidence in its global banking strength. 

BBVA (Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A.)

BBVA trades at €10.24. Bank of America recently highlighted BBVA as a preferred European stock with a price target of €13.30-implying a 30% potential upside, driven by growth in Turkey and potential acquisitions. 

CaixaBank, S.A 

Priced at €5.69, CaixaBank has a revised price target of €7.80 from Citi, representing a notable 37% upside. This reassessment follows a period of waning investor favor.

Aena S.M.E. S.A 

Aena's current price stands at €195.40, with an average price target of €210.00. Analysts expect a potential 7.5% increase, reflecting stable prospects in the aviation sector.

Amadeus IT Group, S.A

Trading at €66.81, Amadeus has a projected price target of €72.00, with potential gains of 7.8%. This reflects the ongoing recovery in global travel technology.

Ferrovial, S.A Naturgy 

Ferrovial's stock price is €36.72. Analysts foresee an average price target of €40.00, translating to an 8.9% potential upside, driven by its infrastructure projects. 

Energy Group, S.A

At €22.44, Naturgy has a price target of €24.00, suggesting a 7.0% upside, as energy sector dynamics remain a key influence. 

Telefónica, S.A

Telefónica is priced at €4.50, with an average forecast of €5.00, implying an 11.1% potential upside Despite challenges, its strategic pivot into technology may support future growth. 

In summary, these projections highlight significant potential gains across IBEX 35's top players, with CaixaBank and BBVA showing particularly strong upside potential. As always, market dynamics can shift quickly, so ongoing analysis and prudence are key. 

Market Valuation and Performance 

While the Spanish stock market exhibits a fair valuation with modest past earnings growth, certain sectors like Healthcare and Telecommunications are expected to outperform, contributing to a positive outlook for the market in the near term.

Current Market PE Ratio

As of January 15, 2025, the estimated Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for the Spanish stock market is approximately 11.09. This figure is calculated based on the EWP ETF, which serves as a benchmark for the Spanish market. Over the past five years, the average P/E ratio has ranged between 9.79 and 13.27, indicating that the current P/E is within a fair valuation range. 

Past Earnings Growth 

Over the last three years, Spanish-listed companies have experienced an average annual earnings growth of 2.4%. During the same period, revenues have grown by 5.6% per year, suggesting that while sales have increased, profit margins may have been under pressure. 

Learn more about EPS – Earnings Per Share

Sector PE Ratios 

Healthcare Sector: This sector is trading close to its three-year average P/E ratio of 37.5x Analysts anticipate annual earnings growth of 30.8%, which is higher than its past year's earnings growth of 8.8% per year.

Telecommunications Sector: Analysts are optimistic about this sector, expecting annual earnings growth of 52% over the next five years, aligning with its past earnings growth rate.

Financials Sector: The industry is trading at a P/E ratio of 10.9x, higher than its three-year average of 6.8x. However, earnings growth is expected to remain flat over the next few years. 

Forecasted Growth 

Analysts forecast a modest earnings growth of 2% to 3% for IBEX 35 companies in 2025. Despite this, the Spanish stock market is considered attractively valued compared to its European counterparts. Singular Bank anticipates a total return of 10% for the Spanish stock market in 2025, with the IBEX 35 index potentially closing at 12,400 points, driven by its high dividend yield.

In summary, while the Spanish stock market exhibits a fair valuation with modest past earnings growth, certain sectors like Healthcare and Telecommunications are expected to outperform, contributing to a positive outlook for the market in the near term. 

Why is the IBEX 35 Index Important to Traders? 

The IBEX 35 is an index of the 35 largest and most actively traded companies listed on the Spanish stock market. Established in 1992, the IBEX 35 serves as a national and international benchmark index, and the major indicator of Spain’s stock market performance. 

The IBEX 35 (SP35) includes the largest and most liquid stocks in the local market, dominated by financial, real estate, oil and energy, and consumer goods companies. Some of the most well-known index constituents include the airline holding company IAG, airport operator AENA; utility companies Endesa and Iberdrola; steel and mining giant ArcelorMittal; and the leading banks Bankinter, BBVA, Bankia, Banco de Sabadell, Banco Santander, and CaixaBank. 

Traders like to follow the IBEX 35 index because it can offer exposure to substantial market price volatility and significant day-to-day fluctuations. It also serves as the underlying asset for a wide range of derivative financial instruments. The IBEX 35 is known for its volume and volatility and attracts numerous day traders trying to profit from short-term price movements. 

How Is IBEX 35 Calculated?  

The IBEX 35 is calculated like many other popular stock indices. It uses a basket of 35 companies, and the changes in their stock prices to give a price for the index. It is euro-denominated, calculated in real-time during the trading hours of the Madrid Stock Exchange, and is weighted upon market capitalization.  

The index is adjusted by a free float factor, meaning that the biggest constituents of the index have a higher percentage of the calculation, while smaller companies have a much smaller impact. Unlike most other major indices, the IBEX 35 has no weighting limit for a company, so therefore you should be aware of the makeup of the index and who the top 10 companies are. You should also check every six months when the index is reevaluated. This allows the trader to keep an eye on the biggest stocks that will be driving this market either higher or lower. 

How to Invest in IBEX 35? 

Investing in the IBEX 35 can be done through a multitude of instruments, and which one you choose will drastically affect the potential exposure and potential profit and loss of your positions. With NAGA.com you can buy stocks and funds and trade CFDs on the most popular assets.    

IBEX CFDs  

The IBEX 35 is a way to gain exposure to the Spanish stock market without having to analyze the performance of individual companies. The Spanish IBEX 35 financial index typically provides traders with a high degree of liquidity, long trading hours, and tight spreads. 

One of the most popular ways to trade the IBEX 35 index is with CFDs (contracts for difference). A contract for difference (CFD) is a contract between a trader and a broker, used to try and profit from the price difference between opening and closing the trade. 

No matter whether you have a positive or negative view of the IBEX 35 evolution, you can speculate on price movements in either direction, with the profit or loss you make depending on the extent to which your IBEX 35 analysis and price forecast are correct. 

Open free account 

Using CFDs to trade the IBEX 35 will allow you to go long or short in the market without having to deal with conventional exchanges. You trade directly with your CFD broker. 

You’ll put down an initial deposit (called margin) to open a larger position, with profits and losses calculated on the full position size, not your deposit. Note that this means your profits or losses could outweigh your deposit amount. 

CFDs are commission-free when you trade stock indices with NAGA.com, as charges are included in the spread. 

Learn more about CFD trading 

IBEX 35 futures  

The IBEX 35 is able to be traded via futures, which is a derivative of the index itself. Futures markets are on a regulated exchange and have standardized contract sizes. If you have a large enough account, it does present an opportunity as they are leveraged, but keep in mind that each contract can be expensive, and therefore for most retail traders, the CFD market offers a superior alternative.  

One of the most common ways that people take advantage of IBEX 35 futures is by hedging their existing portfolios. For example, if you hold several Spanish stocks and are worried about a pullback, you may short the IBEX 35 futures contract to protect yourself on the downside. 

Learn more about futures trading

IBEX 35 stocks  

If you choose to replicate the IBEX 35 yourself, one Route that you can take is to simply buy stocks on the index. The IBEX 35 components and the weightings of your allocations would be the same as in the actual index, and the information about index components and their percentage weights is publicly available on several financial or investing websites. 

The biggest difficulty is picking the right company and the fact that your risk is extremely concentrated. The buying of single stocks can fall victim to a company-specific problem while trading the entire index may help mitigate some of those risks.  

While picking a specific company can lead to outsized gains, the reality is that it takes much more in the way of research to become good at it, something that most retail traders do not have the time to do, nor do they have access to all of the pertinent information easily.  

It will take time and effort to construct the portfolio. It will also require a significant amount of transaction costs, as you will need to buy 35 individual stock orders to capture the IBEX 35. Commissions, in such a case, can really add up making it very costly to do. 

Learn more about stock trading 

IBEX ETFs 

Another thing that we can take advantage of it is an ETF. Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are financial instruments that try to mimic the entire sector, index, or even economy by owning bits and pieces of various companies.  

To invest in index funds either buy and sell an ETF just as you would do with any other security or speculate on the price movement of the underlying asset with CFD. 

Buying shares in an index ETF is one of the most traditional ways for investors to gain access to the whole index. Index ETFs will either buy assets – e.g. stocks appearing in the index – or use derivative instruments like futures contracts to mimic the performance of the underlying. 

Alternatively, open a position on an index ETF with a CFD and speculate on the collective performance of the Spain market's top companies and sectors. The most common form of stock index ETF is a weighted tracker, which mirrors the makeup of the index directly. 

The Lyxor IBEX 35 (DR) UCITS ETF - Dist is a UCITS compliant exchange traded fund that aims to track the benchmark index IBEX 35 Net Return Index. 

The iShares MSCI Spain ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of Spanish equities. 

Learn more about ETFs  

History of the IBEX 35 Index 

Maintained and regulated by the Spanish company Bolsas y Mercados Españoles (BME), the IBEX 35 Index was first published in its current form on 14 January 1992. 

Historically, the IBEX 35 Spanish Stock Index reached an all-time high of 15, 945.70 in November 2007. The IBEX’s record low of 1, 873.58 happened in October 1992. 

The list of other milestone dates for the Spanish major financial index includes the following: 

• 14 January 1992 – The IBEX 35 was first published with a base value of 3,000 points 
• October 1992 – The IBEX 35 reached its record low of 1873.58 points 
• 2000 – 2007 – The years of good performance, boosted by domestic economic growth.
• November 2007 – The IBEX 35 hit its all-time high of 15945.70 points
• 2007-2009 – The period of high volatility, followed by the global financial crisis
• March 2009 – The IBEX 35 plunged to under 7,000
• 2010 – 2011 – The IBEX 35 is depressed, due to Spain’s economic problems and the Eurozone crisis
• June 2012 – The index stood at 6,065 points
• 2014 – 2017 – The IBEX 35 climbed back over the 10,000 - point mark
• 2017 – 2020 – The IBEX 35 was stable
• February – March 2022 – The IBEX 35 lost 40% following the COVID 19 threat
• March 2020 – June 2021 – The IBEX 35 recovered most of its losses and climbed close to 10,000 points
• June 2021 – October 2022 – The IBEX 35 plunged below 7,200 points
•  October 2022 – Feb 2023 – The IBEX 35 rallied above the 9,500 price level
• Feb 2023 – October 2023 – The IBEX 35 consolidated between 9,500 and 8,500 price level
•  October 2023 – Current – The IBEX 35 has climbed to the 12,100 price level followed by a slight drop to 11,800