Following last week’s historic interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, Wall Street is set for a pivotal week. Investors are turning their attention to key economic data, including the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and S&P flash services and manufacturing PMIs, as they look for signs of inflation trends and economic stability.
The Federal Reserve’s influence on the markets will remain strong, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell expected to speak at the US Treasury Market Conference, offering further insight into the central bank’s policy path. Market participants will closely follow these developments, looking to gauge the Fed's future actions amid ongoing uncertainty.
🇪🇺 S&P Global Composite PMI — September 23, at 11:00 GMT+3
This week kicks off with a key economic release that will provide fresh insight into the health of the Eurozone economy. The forecast stands at 51.9, a slight improvement from the previous 51.0. The release is crucial as it signals whether the economy is expanding or contracting, with a reading above 50 indicating growth.
EUR/USD is currently holding steady near 1.1150, and any significant deviation from expectations could trigger volatility. A better-than-expected result may support the euro, while a weaker number could put pressure on the currency, especially amid ongoing concerns about economic growth in the region.
🇺🇸 CB Consumer Confidence Index — September 24, at 17:00 GMT+3
The focus will soon shift to a key US economic indicator, with the forecast for consumer confidence at 101.8, down from the previous 103.3. This data is a crucial gauge of consumer sentiment and spending power, which directly impacts market sentiment across asset classes.
Beyond stocks, gold will be in the spotlight as well. With the metal in overbought territory, a stronger-than-expected confidence reading could trigger a pullback in gold prices as risk appetite strengthens. On the flip side, weaker data may support gold as a safe-haven asset amid concerns over consumer spending and economic slowdown.
🛢️ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — September 25, at 17:30 GMT+3
The upcoming release on U.S. crude oil inventories will be closely watched, with the forecast at -1.499M compared to the previous -1.630M. This data will provide insight into supply levels and could significantly impact the prices of WTI and Brent crude.
WTI and Brent are both in focus, particularly after U.S. crude rose more than 1% following the Federal Reserve's rate cut. A larger-than-expected draw in inventories could push prices higher, while a smaller decrease or unexpected build might ease upward pressure on crude.
🇺🇸 GDP q/q — September 26, at 15:30 GMT+3
This week’s spotlight will be on the U.S. quarterly GDP growth, expected at 3.0%. Last week, major indices saw solid gains, with the S&P 500 up by 1.36%, the Nasdaq rising 1.49%, and the Dow climbing 1.62%. This GDP release could have a significant influence on the market, potentially shifting the current momentum. Investors will be paying close attention, as it provides a broad view of the economy's performance and could set the tone for the days ahead.
🇺🇸 PCE Price Index m/m — September 27, at 15:30 GMT+3
Closing out the week, attention will turn to the PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. The forecast is 0.3%, up from the previous 0.2%. As a key gauge of inflationary pressures, this release will be closely monitored by investors and policymakers alike, providing further clues on the trajectory of inflation and potential future Fed decisions. Given the central bank’s focus on inflation control, the PCE data could play a pivotal role in shaping market sentiment as the week wraps up.
That's it for this week! 👋
