Last week, stocks lost ground after a slate of data highlighted the continued resilience of the U.S. economy. While CPI matched expectations, producer-price inflation exceeded annual forecasts. Additionally, October’s retail sales report, with a significant upward revision to the previous month’s data, underscored persistent consumer strength and raised questions about the Fed’s next steps.
But now, attention shifts to key releases like European PMI, crude oil inventories, and consumer inflation data in Europe. Rising inflation could trigger significant volatility in $EURUSD and the DAX index ($GERMAN30).
Before the trading week begins, make sure to check out our announcement!
🇪🇺 October’s CPI and Core CPI — November 19, at 12:00 (GMT+2)
This week’s spotlight is on the October CPI and Core CPI, one of the most anticipated reports for European markets. Monthly inflation is expected to hold steady at 0.3%, with the annual rate forecasted at 2.0% — unchanged from previous data.
While the outlook suggests stability, any deviation from these expectations could spark significant market reactions. Watch closely as $EURUSD and $GERMAN30 are likely to show heightened sensitivity to the results.
🛢️ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — November 20, at 17:30 (GMT+2)
The EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change measures weekly changes in the amount of crude oil held by commercial firms in the U.S. It’s a critical indicator for assessing supply and demand dynamics in the oil market, making it a key event for energy traders.
This week, the forecast is 0.766M, significantly lower than the previous 2.089M. Such shifts in inventory levels often influence the prices of Brent ($UKOUSD) and WTI ($USOUSD), as markets react to signals of either oversupply or tightening supply.
🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales — November 21, at 17:00 (GMT+2)
This report shows how many previously owned homes were sold last month. It’s a key indicator of housing market health and consumer spending. This time, the forecast is 3.78M, slightly down from the previous 3.84M.
When this number falls, the US Dollar often weakens as it reflects slower economic activity. In the past, lower sales have also sparked reactions in indices like the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500, as investors adjust to the signs of cooling demand.
🇪🇺 S&P Global Composite PMI — November 22, at 11:00 (GMT+2)
The next big release to watch is the European S&P Global Composite PMI. It’s a snapshot of economic health across manufacturing and services. This time, the forecast is 52.4, up from the previous 50.0, signaling potential growth.
A stronger number could boost the euro, as it points to improving economic activity. Markets will be watching closely for any surprises!
🇨🇦 Retail Sales m/m — November 22, at 15:30 (GMT+2)
Closing out the week is Canada’s Retail Sales m/m, a key measure of consumer spending. This month’s forecast is 0.2%, down from the previous 0.4%, suggesting a potential slowdown.
The spotlight will be on $USDCAD, as weaker sales could pressure the Canadian dollar, while stronger data might support it.
That's it for this week! 👋
As this week brims with crucial economic data points, market participants should brace for potential swings and volatility.
