The German stock market benchmark index has gained 23%, adding 18.85% in 2024 and 20.3% in 2023, reflecting investor optimism despite Germany's faltering economic performance. This performance ranks among the best in the history of the index. Yet, the rise in prices did not end there, and the index reached new all-time highs at the beginning of 2026, extending a bullish trend that began in the second half of 2022.
However, appearances can be deceptive. The latest survey published by Deutsche Börse at the start of 2026 showed diverging views between institutional and retail investors. The share of institutional investors with a bearish DAX forecast rose compared with the previous survey.
DAX 40 Forecast & Price Predictions – Key Takeaways
- DAX 40 forecast today: The index remains extremely strong. After breaking the 6-month range above 25,000, the index is expected to continue the bullish momentum towards the 26,000 levels.
- DAX 40 forecast 2026: Most of the experts are forecasting that the DAX index might reach 27,000 points by the end of the year. It is important that the DAX stay above the 23,000-point mark to keep going up. Once the actual rally with exhaust, the index is expected to test the key support levels, the 23,000-24,500 area.
- DAX 40 Forecast for the next 5 years: According to analysts, the bull market will continue within the next few years, but periodic downturns in business activity may bring corrections. The index could break the 30,000 points mark as written above but also reach the zone of 40,000 by 2030, according to the most bullish forecasts.
DAX 40 Outlook - What's behind the German stock market gains?
To get a better understanding of how well the DAX is doing, we looked at how many companies in the German stock market were outperforming. In general, about five to ten companies tend to move the index. Since the index is weighted by a company’s market cap, naturally, bigger corporations tend to move the market more.
Prominent contributors to this recent surge include:
- Rheinmetall topped DAX 40 performers in 2025 with ~150% gains, surging on booming European defense budgets and NATO spending pressures under Trump policies.
- Siemens Energy delivered ~140% returns, riding AI-driven energy demand for renewables and data centers, marking a stunning turnaround from near-collapse years.
- Commerzbank climbed ~126%, boosted by European banking rally and UniCredit acquisition speculation amid M&A optimism.
- Heidelberg Materials advanced ~85%, capitalizing on the construction rebound and infrastructure fiscal support in Germany.
- Deutsche Bank rose ~84%, thriving on higher trading volumes, fee income, and a no-recession environment favoring lenders.
A major reason for the disconnection between the DAX and the national economy is the global reach of DAX-listed firms. Nearly all DAX constituents are large multinationals with operations worldwide.
The market rally has coincided with a notable shift in public sentiment toward stock trading. Traditionally seen as risk-averse, German retail investors - especially younger ones - have increasingly become shareholders in recent years.
Some 12.1 million people in Germany, or 17.2 percent of the total population, were investing in equity funds, ETFs or shares in 2024, according to the German institute Deutsches Aktieninstitut.
Some of the Best German stocks
Outlook 2026 – Where next for the DAX?
After a strong multi-year performance and a prolonged consolidation phase, investors are asking whether the next meaningful move is approaching. With monetary conditions easing, macro sentiment in the eurozone improving, and technical levels coming into play, the outlook for the DAX is becoming increasingly relevant – both for domestic and international investors.
Liquidity returns as the ECB eases policy
One of the most important drivers for European equities is monetary policy. The European Central Bank has already started cutting interest rates and has clearly signalled that at least one additional cut remains possible if inflation continues to cool. This shift marks a clear change from the restrictive stance of previous years.
Lower policy rates improve liquidity conditions across the eurozone. Financing costs for companies ease, valuations become easier to justify, and risk appetite typically improves. Historically, indices such as the Euro Stoxx 50 and the DAX tend to benefit disproportionately during phases of monetary easing, especially after extended periods of tight financial conditions.
Interest rates forecast for 2026
Improving eurozone outlook supports sentiment
Beyond central bank policy, the broader eurozone outlook is gradually stabilising. Growth expectations have improved modestly, recession fears have faded, and several leading indicators are pointing towards resilience rather than contraction.
For Germany in particular, headline consumer sentiment remains rather negative. However, hard economic data paints a more constructive picture once volatile sectors such as autos are excluded. Industrial production, exports and business expectations have shown signs of stabilisation, suggesting that the German economy may be performing better beneath the surface than consumer surveys imply.
Geopolitics: Ukraine war still a factor, but less dominant
The war in Ukraine remains a structural negative factor for Europe, especially for Germany, given its historical energy dependence. However, the market impact has clearly diminished compared to previous years. Energy prices have stabilised, supply chains have adjusted and investors appear to be pricing the conflict as a persistent, but contained risk rather than an escalating shock.
At the same time, defence spending across Europe continues to rise. For markets, this is not purely a geopolitical issue but also an economic one. Higher defence budgets translate into
long-term contracts, investment visibility and revenue growth for parts of the industrial and engineering sector – areas where several German companies are well positioned.
Lower energy prices
The significant decline in energy prices has been another important driver of German stock market success that has set records. The nation's transition strategy towards renewable energy sources by 2030, known as the "Energiewende," has Germany firmly committed to this goal, although purchasing fossil fuels still costs German firms a lot of money.
Positively, the recent sharp drops in the price of natural gas and oil have provided respite to Germany's energy-intensive industries and automakers. Since the situation between Iran and the US has calmed down again, especially oil prices came down again. The price of Brent crude oil has decreased, and prices might be set to fall even further as long-term charts currently suggest. This might mark the turnaround in the bullish trend and could offer a cheaper supply in energy moving forward.
Global exposure remains a strength of the DAX
A key structural advantage of the DAX is often overlooked in domestic debates: most large German companies generate the majority of their revenues outside Germany. This global exposure reduces dependence on local consumer sentiment and allows firms to benefit from growth in the US, Asia and emerging markets.
In an environment where US economic data remains volatile – partly driven by political uncertainty and policy noise surrounding Donald Trump – European markets may even attract relative inflows. If US data continues to surprise in both directions, international investors could view European equities, including the DAX, as a diversification opportunity.
DAX 40 Forecast 2026 - What are the price predictions?
Despite numerous geopolitical conflicts and a mixed German economic outlook, experts hold a cautiously optimistic view concerning the future of the stock market. They forecast the DAX to trade between 22,500 points and 27,500 points. As of the beginning of 2026, most major German and European banks have provided forecasts for the DAX index. Some details about their outlook can be found below:
DZ BANK targets 27,500 by end-2026, citing tariff cushions via fiscal spending, controlled inflation under 2%, and strong earnings in industrials, tech, and finance amid neutral ECB/Fed rates.
Deutsche Bank forecasts a consolidation at 25,000 points, emphasizing earnings exceeding expectations as key to surpassing 25,000, with 1.5% GDP growth aiding cyclicals like finance and IT.
FAZ survey consensus (29 institutions) averages 25,979, balancing US outperformance with German recovery via defense/infrastructure investments.
Leverage Shares sees upside to 26,000+, driven by 0.9-1.6% GDP, ECB holds/cuts, and corporate buybacks enhancing liquidity for rate-sensitive sectors.
Berenberg Bank forecast 25,500-26,200, with mid-2026 extension on earnings momentum and German recovery signals.
DAX 40 Analysis - What are charts saying?
On the DAX chart, we can track the time of the first cut for each of those three cycles that have been shown since the year 2000. It’s the 2011 instance that’s of interest, as this was a moderate series of cuts and given the pattern with which those cuts priced in, as opposed to the emergency actions of 2001 or 2008. Slow, steady, and methodical cuts can possibly be absorbed by the financial system without significant unrest. But fast and aggressive cuts can quickly trigger a bull market in bonds and if capital begins to leave the equity space, a new theme can quickly develop, much as we saw in those two earlier instances.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. All historical data, including but not limited to returns, volatility, and other performance metrics, should not be construed as a guarantee of future performance.
From a technical perspective, the DAX remains extremely positive. After breaking the 25,000-point level, fresh buying power might be added to the market. This break remains a major psychological and chart-based support zone now. While a retest of the level might follow at some point, the threshold could act as a catalyst, attracting trend-following investors, systematic strategies and fresh inflows from sidelined capital.
Such breakouts often have a self-reinforcing effect. Once key resistance levels are cleared, upside momentum can extend further than fundamentals alone would suggest, particularly in a liquidity-friendly environment.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. All historical data, including but not limited to returns, volatility, and other performance metrics, should not be construed as a guarantee of future performance.
The previous accumulation area (23.000-24.500) should become the next support area for the next retracement of this new leg up.
DAX 40 Price Predictions from AI-based Websites
Major AI-based prediction sites like Traders Union forecast DAX reaching €29,924 by end-2026, with monthly climbs from €26,000 in Q1 to €30,000+ peaks in mid-year before slight pullbacks, driven by technical momentum and export recovery.
WalletInvestor (via similar models) and LongForecast align on 26,000-28,000 ranges early 2026, building to 29,000+ consensus by Q4 on ECB stability and earnings, though lacking precise bank-level granularity found in DZ BANK's 27,500 call.
CoinPriceForecast predicts DAX closing 2026 at 27,539 points (+12% from recent levels), with H1 averaging 24,432 rising to H2 at 24,808 amid steady climbs, conservative versus bank bulls.
LongForecast forecasts a robust 30,495 end-2026 (+24% YoY), surging from January's 26,244 through October's 30,476 peak on monthly gains, highly optimistic on momentum continuation.
Summary
Overall, the medium-term outlook for the DAX appears constructive. Easing monetary policy, improving conditions in the eurozone, rising defence spending and strong global exposure all support the index. While domestic consumer sentiment in Germany remains a weak spot and geopolitical risks have not disappeared, their market impact is currently limited.
If liquidity continues to improve and the DAX manages to stay above 25,000 points, additional upside momentum cannot be ruled out. In that scenario, Germany’s equity market could remain attractive even as global uncertainties persist.
What is DAX 40?
DAX is short for Deutscher Aktien Index 40 and tracks the 40 largest German companies in terms of market cap and liquidity. It was established with a base value of 1,000 in 1988 and since 2006, the Xetra trading venue has been computing the index’s price every second.
When the DAX 30 became the DAX 40 in September 2021, the Deutsch Boerse admitted ten more companies to the index, meaning a slightly broader range of sectors covered, as well as other regulatory provisions. The DAX 30 became the DAX 40 on 20 September 2021.
Since its inception at the end of 1987, the DAX has mirrored other indices during major economic events throughout history, including the tech bubble in 2000, significant lows in 2003, as well as other fluctuations over in subsequent years. The index plunged in 2008 amid the global financial crisis and did so again during the global COVID-19 outbreak.
How Is the DAX Index Calculated?
The DAX 40 is computed through the free-float methodology, which means that it takes into consideration only the readily available shares and it doesn’t consider shares that are untradable, like those owned by governments.
Like other blue-chip indices, the DAX Index is also weighted by market cap, so companies with higher market caps have more influence on its value. Companies included in the DAX can have a maximum weight of 10%.
How to forecast the DAX 40 index?
The DAX 40 has an inverse correlation of 70% with the Euro and a positive correlation of 90% with the main US stock indices, according to Blackwell Global. The relationship between the DAX and its US counterparts has occasionally diverged; in 2018, for instance, the 50-day correlation between the two moved negative, suggesting a brief shift in the fundamental patterns impacting global assets.
For example, when the EUR/USD currency pair rises, the DAX index typically falls; conversely, when the Euro falls vs the USD, the DAX rises. Traders utilize this correlation to create reliable trading strategies. However, keep in mind that correlations sometimes can fade unexpectedly.
The DAX is very sensitive to the policies of the European Central Bank, or ECB, which is another fascinating fact. The index is probably going to be impacted by major news releases in the Eurozone. This is so that you can reduce risk since you're basing decisions on accurate information when using the correlation technique to forecast the DAX 40 index.
How to trade DAX 40?
Contract for Difference (CFDs) is one of the ways you can trade the DAX cost-effectively and efficiently. Generally, online brokers offer a CFD based on the cash index (GER30) and a CFD based on the underlying futures contract (DAX30.fs).
When you trade indices online using CFDs, you can speculate on the direction of the underlying instrument (the DAX) without owning it or any of its constituents. You can make use of leverage and you will have the ability to go both long and short. However, remember that leverage can magnify both profit and losses. Make sure you are aware of the risks of CFD trading.
CFD trading can prove especially useful during a downturn. Most investors want to avoid a reshuffling of their portfolio as the costs can quickly add up and it is incredibly difficult to time the market correctly. Therefore, instead of selling a large part of your portfolio when you anticipate a correction, you could use CFDs to speculate on falling prices.
What are the DAX trading hours?
The DAX market hours are from 9 AM to 5:30 PM (Central European Time). Out-of-hours trading occurs from 5:30 PM to 10:00 PM and from 08:00 to 09:00.
The Dax Futures contract on the EUREX exchange is traded from 01:10 to 22:00 (Central European Time). The Cash CFD - GER30 - can be traded from 18:00 Sunday to 16:59 Friday (New York Time) with a daily trading break from 16:59 - 18:00 (New York Time).
When trading the DAX 40, you should always be aware of market holidays, as these days usually see less liquidity and less trading volume.
Consider the following: Good Friday, Easter Monday, Labor Day, Ascension Day, Whit Monday, Corpus Christi, German Unity Day, Christmas and Boxing Day, and remember that while some holidays will only be observed by German traders, others might be followed by different traders around the world.
Explore our DAX Index offering
On our trading platform, we offer two versions of the DAX index to trade called the DAX30 Cash Index and DAX 40 Futures (Eurex). You can view and analyze live price charts, seamlessly open and close trades, track your progress, and set up alerts.
What are the most popular DAX trading strategies?
Day trading and swing trading are among the most popular trading styles used to actively trade the DAX 40 over the short to medium term. While you will keep your positions open for a few hours with day trading, you can hold them from a few days to a few weeks with swing trading.
Usually, active traders rely on technical analysis to decide when to enter or exit the market. They can use breakout trading to spot when the German index breaks out above a resistance level or below a support level to open a position and take advantage of the strong price movement.
But they can also use other strategies, such as mean reversion trading, which is used to determine any overbought or oversold conditions that can trigger a price reversal, pushing the index to return to its mean.
News trading is also very popular when trading the DAX 40, such as when economic and geopolitical news that may impact the German economy are published.
If your time horizon is a bit longer than a day, you can also use a trend-following strategy to trade in the direction of the primary trend and ride the bullish or bearish momentum. This is called position trading and takes into consideration the fundamental outlook.
How to invest in DAX 40?
First is to try to replicate the index yourself, in a process known as indexing. This way, you can create your own portfolio of securities that best represents the DAX 40 index. The stocks and the weightings of your allocations would be the same as in the actual index, and the information about index components and their percentage weights is publicly available on several financial or investing websites.
Some of the best stocks to buy in 2026
Adjustments would have to be made periodically to reflect changes in the index. This stock investing method can be quite costly since it requires an investor to create an extensive portfolio and make hundreds of transactions a year.
Thus, Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are the most popular way to invest in the German index. It is more cost-effective than buying shares and the rebalancing is done frequently.
The largest DAX ETFs are:
- iShares Core DAX UCITS ETF
- Xtrackers DAX UCITS ETF
- Deka DAX UCITS ETF
The DAX ETFs with the lowest expense ratio are:
- Lyxor Core DAX
- XTrackers UCITS ETF
- Xtraders DAX UCITS ETF Income
Most DAX ETFs are similar and essentially just track the performance of the index. When comparing the different ETFs, investors usually look at the total expense ratio (TER) - i.e. how much it will cost to hold the ETF - as well as how much money the ETF has under management and where it is domiciled.
Some of the best ETFs for 2026
Explore our German stocks and ETFs
Our WebTrader platform and app offers the most important stocks listed on the German stock exchange as well as several ETFs that track the performance of the underlying Germany 40 index.
Sources:
- https://walletinvestor.com/commodity-forecast/dax-futures-history
- https://munafasutra.com/indices/forecast/DAX
- https://www.forecasts.org/subscribe/index.htm
- https://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/news/stock-market-outlook-the-dax-is-in-for-a-bumpy-start-to-the-year
- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/barclays-raises-2025-p-500-114750906.html
- https://www.dzbank.com/content/dzbank/en/home/we-are-dz-bank/press/news_archive/2024/dz-bank-research---outlook-for-2025.html
