Stocks wrapped up a turbulent week with mixed results. The S&P 500 gained a modest 0.24%, while the Dow Jones climbed 0.94%, reaching a new record high. In contrast, tech benchmarks Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq-100 dropped 0.92% and 0.74%, respectively, as Friday’s rebound failed to offset earlier declines.
As we head into September, historically the weakest month for stock market returns, investors are looking ahead with cautious optimism. The hope is that the Federal Reserve’s shift towards monetary easing will bolster the market's performance.
Looking ahead, several key economic releases are on the horizon. We provide a brief overview of these upcoming reports below.
🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing PMI — September 3, at 17:00 GMT+3
The first major economic release of the week is August’s ISM Manufacturing PMI. This report provides insights into business conditions within the U.S. manufacturing sector and is a crucial indicator of broader economic health. PMIs are highly regarded as reliable leading indicators, helping analysts and economists gauge the state of the U.S. economy and predict emerging trends.
The forecast for August's PMI is 48.6, an increase from the previous reading of 46.8. A rise in this figure could influence various assets, including the US Dollar. Additionally, EUR/USD has edged higher towards 1.1050, reflecting dovish sentiments surrounding the Federal Reserve.
🇺🇸 JOLTS Job Openings — September 4, at 17:00 GMT+3
The JOLTS Job Openings report, scheduled for release on Wednesday, September 4, tracks the number of job vacancies available in the U.S. labor market. This report is a key indicator of labor demand and provides insights into the health of the job market. A high number of job openings suggests strong demand for workers, while a decrease can signal a cooling labor market.
The forecast for this report is 7.876 million job openings, down from the previous 8.184 million. This decline may impact market expectations regarding employment trends and economic growth.
🇪🇺 Retail Sales m/m — September 5, at 12:00 GMT+3
The European Retail Sales report measures the month-over-month change in retail sales across the Eurozone. This indicator provides insights into consumer spending and economic activity within the region.
The forecast for August is 0.0%, compared to the previous -0.3%. A return to positive growth could influence market sentiment, particularly for the EUR/USD currency pair and the DAX index.
🇺🇸 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI — September 5, at 17:00 GMT+3
This report provides insights into business conditions in the U.S. services sector, which accounts for more than 70% of the U.S. GDP. PMI indices are crucial leading economic indicators that help economists and analysts gauge evolving economic trends, as shifts in the PMIs often signal changes in the broader economy ahead of time.
For this report, the forecast is 51.7, up from the previous reading of 51.4.
🇺🇸 Nonfarm Payrolls — September 6, at 15:30 GMT+3
The Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment reports are crucial economic indicators. They reveal the number of new jobs created in the previous month and the unemployment rate, which reflects the health of the economy.
The forecast for this report is 104K new jobs, down from the previous 114K. Given the lower forecast, we might see increased volatility in the stock market, currencies, and Gold (XAUUSD). Additionally, this data will be a key factor in the Fed’s considerations for the upcoming monetary easing expected to begin at their policy meeting on September 17th.
That's it for this week! 👋
