Gold Forecast & Price Prediction for Q4 2025 and 2026: $4,000 by the end of the year?

Gold price today: Gold spot (XAU/USD) rose towards $3,800 at the end of Q3, as investors eye further rate cuts by the end of the year, extended a rally that experts don’t forecast to end anytime soon. 

Since 2023, gold prices have hit record highs several times, gaining almost 50% this year and $1,800 compared to just two years ago. As a safe-haven investment, gold performed well in this mix of lower-interest-rate expectations coupled with political and financial uncertainty.

This seemingly unstoppable ascent to record after record could make gold the year’s best-performing asset and likely put it in the top decile of tech stocks, on par with Nvidia (NVDA). 

This article provides an in-depth market outlook and gold price predictions for Q4 2025, 2026 and beyond, examining critical market themes and key drivers, as well as valuable insights into price action dynamics, that could play a pivotal role in shaping the precious metal's trajectory. 

Gold Forecast & Price Prediction – Key Notes  

• Gold forecast September and Q4 2025: Although there are some expectations for gold rate to decrease in the coming days following the rally towards $3,800, analysts forecast that prices could rise above $4,000 by the end of 2025, implying a full-year return of more than 50%.
• Gold price prediction 2026: With more rate cuts expected in the US and not only, it's tough to find a weak spot in the bull case for gold. Goldman Sachs and other big banks forecast gold prices could soar up to $5,000, driven by Trump’s FED offensive.
• Gold rate forecast for the next 5 years: Most of the long-term gold rate predictions for were met ahead of schedule and remain bullish for the next five years. Projections for 2030 span a wide range from $4,800 to as high as $8,900, with most consensus targets clustered around $5,000–6,000 if current inflation and uncertainty trends persist.

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Fundamental Gold Forecast Q4 2025 –2026

Trump's tariffs on gold bars

The U.S. government specified that gold bars are now subject to tariffs, notably a 39% tariff on imports from Switzerland, one of the biggest producers of gold bars. This unexpected levy on gold imports increases the cost and creates upward pressure on gold prices since investors must pay the tariff when acquiring gold bars as a hedge against inflation and trade taxes. This policy shift has contributed significantly to the surge in gold prices in 2025.

Geopolitical tensions

Rising geopolitical conflicts involving the U.S., Russia, China, and other countries are driving investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold. The ongoing uncertainty around trade relations, tariffs, and sanctions—especially related to U.S. attempts to broker peace deals and impose tariffs—has heightened risk perceptions. If diplomatic efforts fail, the resulting escalations could further boost gold demand as a protective store of value amid uncertainty.

Inflation and economic uncertainty

Investors are concerned about high inflation and slowing economic growth, triggering fears of stagflation—a particularly challenging economic scenario that tends to be bullish for gold. Moreover, expectations of two more U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts by the end of 2025 lower the appeal of fixed-income assets like bonds, making non-yielding bullion more attractive. This mix of inflation worries, recession fears, and monetary policy signals has intensified buying interest in gold as a hedge and safe investment.

Central banks

Central banks globally are significantly increasing their gold reserves in 2025 despite record-high prices. According to the World Gold Council’s 2025 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey, 95% of central bankers forecast global gold reserves to grow this year, with 43% specifically planning to increase their own holdings. This strong demand is motivated by gold's proven performance as a safe asset during crises, with 85% of respondents valuing it for this reason, and 71% viewing gold as a hedge against geopolitical risks. Additionally, central banks are diversifying away from the U.S. dollar, anticipating its share of global reserves to decline while adding gold and alternative currencies like the euro and Chinese renminbi, reinforcing gold's role as a strategic reserve asset amid economic and political uncertainties.

New plans from China

China is pursuing a strategic initiative to become the custodian of foreign sovereign gold reserves by encouraging other countries, particularly friendly or non-aligned nations, to purchase and store their gold within China’s borders via the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE). This plan, already attracting interest from at least one Southeast Asian country, positions China as a key player in global gold custody, boosting demand as governments increase purchases. By prioritizing gold custody as a national financial strategy, China aims to enhance its influence in the global bullion market, reduce reliance on Western financial systems, and strengthen its role in international finance, thereby supporting gold prices through heightened global buying and holding activity.

These five catalysts explain why gold prices have hit record highs and are forecasted to continue strong, as the following Gold price predictions from banks and experts highlight. Additionally, gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw inflows of 500 million dollars in August, marking the highest inflow since 2020. This indicates a renewed interest from institutional investors.

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Gold Outlook: Is it worth investing with prices near a record high?

Determining whether it's the right time to buy gold or invest in gold assets depends on various factors, including your financial goals, risk tolerance and overall portfolio strategy. For the right investor, though, the current economic climate and market conditions may present an opportune moment to consider gold as part of a diversified investment strategy.  

Experts say there are a few reasons to consider investing in gold in today's market:

• Gold still has room to grow: Despite recent gains, experts widely forecast gold to continue its uptrend with no immediate resistance in sight. The recent surpassing of $3,700 an ounce marks a new peak, suggesting strong market momentum remains. Anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, persistent inflation pressures, and the depreciating US dollar (decline could accelerate further). create a favorable environment for gold to gain further appeal as an investment.
• It's a low-risk portfolio diversifier: Gold behaves differently from stocks and bonds, meaning when other assets decline, gold often remains stable or even increases in value, providing a protective balance. Its long-standing history as a monetary asset with no counterparty risk makes it a reliable store of value. It serves as a financial safeguard, helping investors manage risk and maintain peace of mind amid unpredictable market conditions.
• It doesn’t require a lot of capital to start: One popular choice are derivatives such as CFDs, which allows trading smaller quantities like 1/10th of an ounce. This approach offers flexibility for investors to speculate on price movements or hedge their portfolios. Other options include buying shares in gold funds, gold ETFs, or mining companies, all designed to make gold investment achievable and practical for diverse financial goals.

However, it's crucial to approach gold investment with a balanced perspective. While gold can offer portfolio diversification and potential protection against economic downturns, it does not generate income like dividend-paying stocks or interest-bearing bonds. Gold prices can also decrease in the short term, so it's best to view this investment as a longer-term option. 

How to Invest in Gold in 2025

Technical Gold Forecast Q4 2025

The overall trend for Gold (XAU/USD) remains bullish, with gold prices showing a brief consolidation near the resistance level around $3,777 to $3,791 per ounce, close to all-time highs. Key support levels are around the previous swing high at $3,700, while resistance levels include just extensions of the previous legs up and the psychological peak $3,800. If broken, gold is aiming for a next historic high of $4,000 per ounce if bullish factors persist.

For illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Recent price actions - breakout patterns with increased volume, reflect sustained participation and accumulation. Compared to previous gold bull markets, the 2025 rally shows more consistency in consecutive all-time highs and relatively lower volatility, signaling a strong and sustainable uptrend. 

Will Gold prices rise in the coming days?

According to the daily chart, the overall trend for the gold spot price remains strong and upward. Bulls are now trying to break the $3,800 per ounce resistance level in a record-setting rally. Investors are currently unconcerned with technical indicators reaching overbought levels. Instead, they are focused on the continuation of the factors driving the gold market's gains, which include the path of US rate cuts, increasing global trade and geopolitical tensions, central bank purchases of gold bullion, and the trajectory of the US currency.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 78, having strongly broken above the 70 overbought line while the MACD indicator's two lines are also in a sharp upward position.

Will Gold prices decrease in the coming days?

Short-term technical signals suggest a minor corrective pullback after hitting highs but with bullish momentum intact. Support at around $3,700 is critical for maintaining the bullish trajectory, with potential resistance targets at $3,800 in the near term. Momentum indicators like RSI remain in bullish zones without bearish divergence.

The minor countertrends are 2-3 days after a rally and if these pullbacks are above the previous swing high (space between them), the momentum is strong and is unlikely to find continuation and gold prices to decrease in the coming days.

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Gold price predictions for 2025 and 2026 from experts  

Many sources and experts provide gold forecasts and gold price predictions for 2025 based on different models, methods, and assumptions. Despite its current price tag, many investment banks continue to maintain a bullish gold rate forecast for 2026 and the next 5 years.

Please note that most forecasts from earlier this year have already been met:

• The World Bank predicts an average gold price increase of 35% in 2025.
• Goldman Sachs warns gold may reach $5,000 if FED’s Independence is compromised
• Morgan Stanley predicts Gold Prices to reach $3,800 by the end of 2025
• JPMorgan Chase & Co. predicts the gold price to reach 4,000 by the end of Q2 2026.
• Deutsche Bank hikes gold price forecast to $4,000
• Citigroup raised its three-month gold price target to $3,800/oz
• UBS gold price target raised to $3,800/oz by end-2025
• Commerzbank raised its gold forecast to $3,600 by the end of 2025.
• ING forecast gold prices to average $3,450 in Q4 2025.
• TD Securities forecast gold trading around $4,000/oz level in the next 3 to 6 months.

The World Bank’s Gold Prediction 2025  

The World Bank, one of the key players among central banks and a global financial institution offering loans and grants to developing nations for various projects, released a mid-year gold forecast.

Strong demand is expected to persist in the near term, underpinned by global uncertainty and geopolitical risks. Gold prices are projected to rise by about 35 percent in 2025 (y/y), before easing modestly in 2026 as some of the prevailing uncertainties begin to recede. Nonetheless, prices are projected to remain well above historical norms—around 150 percent higher than their 2015–19 average—through 2025–26, according to its latest gold market outlook.

Goldman Sachs’s forecast gold may reach $5,000$ in 2026

Goldman Sachs supports its bullish gold rate forecast with mathematics. Private ownership of the U.S. Treasury market—America's IOUs—is worth about $57 trillion. If investors were to move just 1% of that money into gold, it would mean $570 billion flowing into the gold market, which is tiny by comparison. The bank noted that the entire gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) market—what regular investors use to buy gold as they would a stock—is about the same size as what would be moving over from Treasurys.

They argue that that extra demand would cause the price of gold to rise to the $5,000 target. In fact, Goldman's "normal" gold forecast already predicted $3,700 by the end of 2025 and $4,000 by mid-2026, based on their expectation that central banks will continue their current gold buying spree.  

Morgan Stanley's Gold Rate Forecast 2025

Morgan Stanley has released a bullish gold outlook, with rate cuts by the Federal Reserve as a key catalyst. The firm forecast that gold prices will reach a high of 3,800 dollars per ounce by the end of the year. They believe that rate cuts would significantly impact global capital flows, potentially benefiting emerging markets and driving up gold prices. 

JP Morgan’s Gold Rate Prediction 2025 - 2026

JPMorgan Chase & Co revised its gold forecast, projecting prices to average $3,675/oz by Q4 2025 and to surpass $4,000/oz by Q2 2026. This bullish gold outlook is driven by a continued structural bull case for precious metal, fueled by ongoing risks of recession, stagflation, tariff-driven trade issues, and sustained strong demand from both central banks and investors. 

Deutsche Bank Gold Price Prediction 2025 - 2026

Deutsche Bank raised its gold price forecast and predicts prices to average $4,000/oz in 2026, as gold has already reached its 2025 price target of $3,700/oz.

The bank expects investment demand to remain a strong pillar of support, pointing out that developed market ETFs are still 17 million troy oz lower than the 2020 peak, and speculative futures positioning is not extended on the [one-year and two-year] lookbacks.

Citigroup’s Gold Rate Prediction 2025

Citigroup forecasts that the gold bull market to persist in the short term.

The bank raised its three-month price target for gold to $3,800 per ounce, up from its previous forecast of $3,600. The bank noted that persistent safe-haven demand, alongside central bank accumulation and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, are key drivers sustaining upward momentum in the precious metal.

UBS’s Gold Rate Forecast 2025 - 2026

UBS raised its gold price forecast at the end of September by $300 to $3,800 per ounce by the end of 2025, and by $200 to $3,900 by mid-2026. The Swiss bank supports its new gold price target with Federal Reserve easing and U.S. dollar weakness linked to rate cuts and geopolitical risks.
UBS also revised its estimate for gold ETF holdings, projecting levels to exceed 3,900 metric tons by the end of 2025, approaching the previous record of 3,915 tons set in October 2020.

Commerzbank’s Gold Prediction 2025

Commerzbank now expect gold prices to stand at $3,600 per troy ounce this year and at $3,800 by the end of 2026 -- $200 more than their initial gold outlook, respectively. Policymakers are tipped by the German bank to roll out 75 basis points (bps) of rate cut over the rest of the year and a further 125 bps reduction in 2026 -- marginally above the level indicated by Fed Funds Futures.

Commerzbank also forecast Silver to benefit from the upward trend in gold.

ING’s Gold Rate Forecast 2025 

The Dutch bank believes that the Fed will continue to cut rates, which will drive gold to new highs. The incoming US President will also continue to add to gold's upward momentum through to the end of the year.

Geopolitics will also remain one of the key factors driving gold prices in their view. The war in Ukraine and the Middle East and tensions between the US and China suggest that safe-haven demand will continue to support gold prices in the short to medium term. Central banks are also expected to keep adding to their holdings, which had also been the case throughout 2024. Regardless of the political outcome of several elections the bank believes that prices will rather be driven by rate cuts and the war in the Ukraine. 

At the beginning of September, they forecasted gold averaging $3,450 in the last quarter of 2025. The upward momentum should continue in 2026. 

TD Securities' Gold Price Prediction 2025 - 2026

TD Securities discussed their gold prices outlook and said that the normal relationship between gold and real yields is being reestablished. The bank forecasts that $4,000 gold is a real possibility. The main reason is the Federal Reserve continuing to loosen monetary policy as we move into 2026. They are looking at one more cut this year, potentially two.

Also, the bank pointed out the renewed interest in gold-backed funds from ETF investors and central banks reserves. TD Securities said that If China will accelerate, gold prices could move toward $6,000 to $7,000 an ounce. But this will be a gradual, ongoing process.

Gold price predictions for 2025 (AI-Based) 

Although there is still potential for the price of the precious metal to decline after reaching all-time-highs around $3,800 recently, agencies and AI-based websites are still optimistic that prices would offer potential to rise towards $4,000 per ounce by the end of this year and towards $5,000 be the end of 2026.

Gold price prediction for the next 5 years 

Though it is hard to say for sure for such a long period of time, experts from different resources concur that gold will continue rising. However, they have opposite opinions about the speed of this growth. The recent momentum from 2024 might lead to a slowdown, which occurs in most strong trends over time.

What is the gold price prediction for the next 5 years? See below the forecaster's projections for gold prices in the 5 years approximately.   

*It is worth keeping in mind that both analysts and online forecasting sites can and do get their predictions wrong. Keep in mind that past performance and forecasts are not reliable indicators of future returns. 

When considering gold price predictions for 2025 and beyond, it’s important to keep in mind that high market volatility and the macroeconomic environment make it difficult to produce accurate long-term gold analysis and estimates. As such, analysts and forecasters can get their gold forecast wrong.   

What moves the price of gold in the future?

Unlike almost any other asset, gold is typically neither a safety nor a risk asset, though the popular financial media have often called it both over the years (depending on how gold has been performing in recent months). Instead, it’s a currency hedge for which demand rises when there are concerns about inflation diluting the purchasing power of fiat currencies (particularly those most widely held, like the USD and EUR). In other words: 

1. In times of optimism (aka risk appetite), gold can either appreciate if markets believe growth will lead to inflation, or it can fall if the desire for higher yields overrides inflation concerns and investors move into more classic risk assets which they believe will provide better returns.
2. In times of pessimism (aka risk aversion), gold can either rise if markets believe that stalling growth will lead to rising deficits and/or money printing that could cause inflation, or it can also fall on fears of deflation or a market crash that feeds demand for cash. In times of panic, traders seek cash either to cover margin calls or other obligations or to be ready to go bargain hunting.    
   
   If pessimism turns to panic, then gold could either:    
   – rise if markets are more concerned about the USD or EUR losing their purchasing power than about near-term liquidity needs, as was the case at times from 2009 through 2011.    
   – fall if markets are more concerned about liquidity than the loss of purchasing power, as was the case in late 2011. 

When markets are not concerned about fading purchasing power, the major currencies tend to gain against gold. That can happen due to: 

• Low inflation expectations, as we saw starting in late 2011. Concerns about the global economy kept inflation fears low, and so gold began a multi-month downtrend. 
• Panic periods are when markets fear a financial crisis, and liquidity becomes the top priority. We saw gold sell-off during times of peak anxiety about the US or EU. During these periods, investors tend to sell gold to raise cash. 

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How has the price of Gold changed over time? 

Below is a Gold chart that shows how the price of gold changed over the past ten years. In order to make your predictions and forecasts as accurate as possible, it’s important to look back at such historical data.   

For illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results

One of the biggest drivers of gold is currency values. Because gold is denominated in dollars, USD can have a significant impact on the price of gold. A weaker dollar makes gold relatively less expensive for foreign buyers and may lift prices. On the other hand, a stronger dollar makes gold relatively more expensive for foreign buyers, thus possibly lowering prices.

Gold Price in 2019

The price at the beginning of 2019 was $1,413.75. Though it fell insignificantly in April to $1,353.26, it continued going up till August and became $1,601.35. However, in November, the price lowered to $1,524.80. The reason for this was the falling gold demand in India. Actually, it fell to its lowest level in three years. The World Gold Council (WGC) explained that this was due to domestic prices climbing to a record against a backdrop of falling earnings in rural areas.

Gold Price in 2020

The price was able to recover and rose up to $2,063.56 in August 2020. This peak hasn’t been reached again yet. The coronavirus pandemic and the unprecedented flow of money supply by government stimulus triggered sharp buying in the bullion metal in both domestic and global markets in 2020. 

The price didn’t manage to maintain this high and fell to $1,840.38 in November 2020. Pfizer was the main reason. The US-based pharmaceutical corporation announced the COVID-19 vaccine news. They made a surprising announcement regarding the status of their coronavirus vaccine trial.

Gold Price in 2021

The price managed to recover a little bit, but that didn’t save it from another fall in March 2021 - it fell to $1,742.68 as the dollar strengthened after the jump in US private-sector jobs. “Gold looked as if it was topping out,” Ross Norman, Chief Executive Officer at Metals Daily, said. “Some profit-taking exacerbated the decline, and gold will rebuild from here.” He was right - in May 2021, the price became $1,904.76. Little did he know that the price would again go down, reaching $1,771.60 because of problems with the coronavirus in India. 

There were no sharp ups or downs during summer. The first month of Fall 2021 ended with a price decline to $1,726.11 per ounce. The next seven weeks showed a strong recovery – up to $1,866.96. This happened due to the investor's rush into safe-haven assets. A stronger dollar and the Fed policy led to the following sharp decline. However, the situation changed in December when the bulls took the trend. 

Gold Price in 2022

Between the end of January 2022 and the 8th of March 2022, gold had a 16% gain, trying to surpass its previous record high of $2075 per ounce set in August 2020 because of the conflict in Ukraine that increased geopolitical tensions and market risk aversion. 

Midway through March 2022, the Fed announced its first interest rate increase of the year, and gold started to flex lower. The downward trend in gold prices continued through the summer and into Q3 when Fed Chair Jerome Powell quickened the pace of rises.  Amid a dollar rally and rising Treasury yields, gold plummeted 22% from its March highs to September lows at 1,615/oz. 

After reaching a so-called technical "triple bottom" in the months of September, October, and November, gold started to rise by 12% by the end of December. 

Overall, gold's performance in 2022 was inconsistent when compared to that of other important metals. Copper (-14%) and palladium (-4.2%) were outperformed by the yellow metal, but they lagged silver (+4.5%) and platinum (+4.6%). 

Gold Price in 2023

May 2023 saw gold prices rise to almost record levels, with a peak at $2,067, a level not seen since March 2022. The ongoing talks over the US debt ceiling served as fuel for the most recent spike. The US economy could run out of cash as early as the beginning of June, according to Janet Yellen, the Treasury Secretary.

However, prices have fallen more than 11% from their May highs above $2,000 an ounce as the FED's hawkish outlook has pushed long-term bond yields to their highest level in 16 years.

After wild swings, gold showed a strong rebound in Q4 2023 and hit an all-time high, amid geopolitical conflicts and economic uncertainty.  

Gold Price in 2024

The precious metal has been on an impressive bull run since the start of 2024, with its value reaching new record highs multiple times so far that year. This trend began in early March, with gold prices surging to $2,160 per ounce, up 8% compared to the previous record in December 2023. 

That record was quickly surpassed by subsequent peaks in April, May, August, to hit an all-time-high of 2.790$ per ounce in October last year. With the latest milestone, gold was up more than 25,5% since the start of the year an even outperformed the strong momentum in the S&P500.

Gold price in 2025

Strong central bank accumulation, rising ETF inflows, and investor demand for safe havens amidst global uncertainty and a weakening US dollar, supported the bullish trend continuation and records after records. The precious metal went close to $3,800 by the end of Q3, once FED signaled more rate cuts by the end of 2025 and during 2026.

Conclusion: Is Gold a good investment for 2026 and beyond? 

Drawing from these expert insights, they anticipate a slight uptick in gold prices also this year in general. The average cost could hover around $3,800 per ounce by year’s end. With the right conditions gold could potentially break into the $4,000+ range.However, it’s crucial to note that this remains a forecast. Things can change, and there’s always a level of uncertainty.   

For potential gold investors, experts from Morgan Stanley, among others, recommend some gold in a well-balanced, conservative portfolio to protect against inflation diluting the purchasing power of fiat currencies and geopolitical factors. But before you invest in gold, do your homework. Understand the risks and costs of buying and selling gold. And keep a close eye on market trends and conditions. 

To sum up: experts can make educated gold forecasts and price predictions, but as with any investment, there's no 100% guarantee. 

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Sources:

• www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250917a.html
• www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/gold-prices
• www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-mid-year-outlook-2025
• www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/why-gold-prices-are-forecast-to-rise-to-new-record-highs
• www.vaneck.com/corp/en/news-and-insights/blogs/gold-investing/gold-investing-outlook
• www.ecb.europa.eu/press/other-publications/ire/focus/html/ecb.irebox202506_01~f93400a4aa.en.html