EURUSD on a daily timeframe.
The pair has exhibited a clear uptrend from late May through June, with price steadily climbing from just below 1.1300 to test the 1.1700 zone. On the chart, the green 50‑day moving average continues to slope higher and price has been consistently supported above it, indicating a healthy bullish trajectory. The 200‑ and 100‑day moving averages (blue and yellow) remain well below, reinforcing the uptrend’s structural strength.
During the past few weeks, price surged through resistance zones at 1.1444 and 1.1570, currently consolidating just below 1.1700. Recent candles show minor retracements intraday but no bearish reversal. Daily RSI hovers near 69—almost entering overbought territory—while Stochastic lines stand above 90, suggesting short‑term exhaustion, yet overall momentum remains upward.
Technical indicators show RSI approaching overbought, but still below the textbook 70 – so some breathing room remains. Stochastics above 90 indicate short‑term heat, but bouncing off the 50‑day MA has bolstered confidence in the trend. Key support now lies at the 1.1570–1.1444 area and the 50‑day MA around 1.1350. Resistance is immediately overhead at 1.1700, with major hurdles at 1.1892 and 1.2017 if breakout occurs.
The main bullish scenario assumes a sustained break above 1.1700, which could pave the way towards the next targets at 1.1892 and possibly 1.2017. A successful retest of the 1.1700 level as support — ideally on low volume — would confirm strong buyer interest. Continued USD weakness, dovish Fed expectations, and cooling oil prices would likely fuel further EUR strength.
An alternative scenario contemplates a shallow retracement from current highs, with price dipping back to 1.1570–1.1444 before finding support near the 50‑day MA (1.1350) and resuming the uptrend. However, a deeper drop below 1.1444 and the 50‑day MA, especially in the event of surprising USD strength or hawkish US data, could shift momentum and expose the blue 100‑day MA (1.1200) as the next critical support.
Fundamentally, the past few days have been dominated by dovish Fed sentiment and easing geopolitical tensions. A ceasefire in the Middle East has alleviated oil‑driven inflation fears, contributing to a softer USD. U.S. economic data, including weak consumer confidence and cooling housing market readings, have prompted markets to fully price in a Fed rate cut by September, reinforcing the bearish tone on USD. Looking ahead this week, key U.S. data releases—such as the PCE inflation report and US Q1 GDP—will be closely watched, given their potential to affect Fed expectations and thus the EURUSD outlook.
SUMMARY:
- EUR/USD is in a strong uptrend, climbing from below 1.1300 to near 1.1700, supported by the rising 50-day moving average.
- Technical breakout levels at 1.1444 and 1.1570 have been cleared, with price consolidating just below 1.1700 and momentum indicators nearing overbought.
- A confirmed break above 1.1700 could target 1.1892 and 1.2017, while key support lies at 1.1570–1.1444 and the 50-day MA near 1.1350.
- Fundamentals favor euro strength, with dovish Fed expectations, weaker U.S. data, and easing geopolitical risks pressuring the USD.
