XAUUSD Technical Outlook: Fibonacci Levels Signal Potential Gold Rebound

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XAUUSD on a 4-hour timeframe.  

XAUUSD on a 4-hour timeframe. The gold spot price has experienced a strong upward movement from early April 2025, following a period of consolidation that began in late March. The price action broke through multiple resistance levels as it rallied, forming higher highs and higher lows, until encountering strong resistance near the 3495.43 level. This bullish momentum was supported by broader market risk aversion and geopolitical tensions, which traditionally favor gold as a safe-haven asset. 

In the most recent sessions, gold prices have retraced from the peak of 3495.43 and are currently hovering around the 3367.32 level, just above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. The price recently rebounded from the 3287.68 level, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting this zone may act as a near-term support. The 50-period moving average (green) has provided dynamic support, while the 100-period (blue) and 200-period (yellow) moving averages remain below, confirming the medium-term bullish trend. 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 48.51, indicating a neutral momentum after previously declining from overbought levels. This suggests that the market is in a state of consolidation following the recent sell-off. Meanwhile, the Stochastic Oscillator has recently crossed upward from oversold territory, which could be an early signal of renewed buying interest, though further confirmation is needed. 

The main scenario envisions a continuation of the upward trend if gold manages to hold above the 3287.68 support zone and break above the 3367.32 resistance. In this case, the price could attempt to retest the 3434.26 and possibly the 3495.43 high. This scenario would be supported by ongoing geopolitical risks or weaker-than-expected macroeconomic data, particularly from the United States. 

An alternative scenario would see XAUUSD breaking below the 3287.68 level, which could open the path to further downside towards the 3224.20 support and the 50% Fibonacci level. Such a move could be triggered by stronger U.S. economic data or a shift in investor sentiment away from safe-haven assets, possibly due to a reduction in Middle East tensions or a hawkish shift in Federal Reserve communication. 

Gold remains fundamentally supported by persistent global economic uncertainty, robust central bank demand, and ongoing geopolitical risks. Inflationary pressures and expectations for US monetary policy shifts continue to shape gold’s outlook. The market is also sensitive to signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates, as lower rates typically boost gold’s appeal by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Additionally, major political developments—especially those related to US economic and foreign policy—can rapidly influence gold prices by affecting risk sentiment and the US dollar.  

SUMMARY:  

• Bullish Rally: XAUUSD surged from early April 2025, breaking through key resistance levels until reaching 3495.43, driven by geopolitical tensions and market risk aversion. 
• Current Retracement: Gold has pulled back to 3367.32, testing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, with support seen around 3287.68 (38.2% Fibonacci). 
• Technical Indicators: The RSI sits at 48.51, signaling neutral momentum, while the Stochastic Oscillator suggests potential for renewed buying interest. 
• Outlook: A break above 3367.32 could push gold higher, while a fall below 3287.68 may lead to a deeper retracement towards 3224.20.