XAUUSD on a daily timeframe.
Gold has experienced a strong bullish trend from early February to mid-April 2025, with a notable acceleration in late March that peaked near the 3440 level. This rally was followed by a sharp correction, with resistance established around 3440 and 3300. Since then, price action has shown signs of consolidation between the 3300 and 3170 zones, with a significant bounce occurring off the 50-day moving average.
Recent candles reveal indecision, with multiple small-bodied candles clustered just above the 50-day moving average (green line), highlighting a battle between buyers and sellers near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. This suggests a stalling of bullish momentum after the strong upward leg. Sellers have managed to cap upside moves near 3300 while buyers are defending the 3170 support.
Indicators provide mixed signals. The RSI stands near the neutral 50 mark, showing neither overbought nor oversold conditions, indicating a lack of clear momentum. The stochastic oscillator, however, is exiting overbought territory and turning lower, hinting at near-term bearish pressure. Price has bounced off the 50-day moving average multiple times, reinforcing it as a key dynamic support. The 3170 and 3300 levels are now well-defined horizontal support and resistance zones, while 3440 marks a key barrier above.
The primary scenario suggests that if bulls hold the 3170 support zone and reclaim 3300, a retest of the 3440 resistance is likely. Sustained buying above 3440 could re-energize the rally and open the path toward the 3634 Fibonacci extension target. Continuation will likely need a catalyst such as dovish economic data or further dollar weakness.
Alternatively, if 3170 fails as support, bearish momentum may accelerate, targeting the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 3170 and potentially the 100% retracement level near 2956. A close below the green 100-day moving average could confirm a bearish reversal and shift sentiment decisively toward the downside.
Based on current news (as of May 29, 2025), gold has been reacting to recent U.S. macroeconomic indicators including mixed GDP growth data and softening inflation metrics. This has supported expectations that the Federal Reserve may hold rates steady or cut later in the year, which generally benefits gold. However, the market remains cautious ahead of the PCE inflation data release due on May 31, which could significantly affect rate expectations and gold sentiment. Additionally, developments in geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and continued central bank gold purchases have lent underlying support to gold prices this week.
Summary:
- Gold (XAUUSD) is consolidating between 3170 support and 3300 resistance after a strong Feb–April rally peaked near 3440.
- Price action is hovering above the 50-day moving average, with small-bodied candles and signs of indecision at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
- Momentum indicators are mixed: RSI is neutral near 50, while the Stochastic is turning down from overbought—hinting at short-term bearish pressure.
- Outlook depends on key catalysts like PCE inflation data and Fed policy; a break above 3300 could target 3440/3634, while a drop below 3170 opens risk toward 2956.
