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Top Economic Events to Watch | June 30 - July 4, 2025

30 June 2025

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Gladys Eguia

As July kicks off, investors are laser-focused on three major U.S. economic reports set for Wednesday, July 3. With the Fed at a crossroads and volatility picking up ahead of the holiday weekend, these releases could set the tone for markets well into Q3.

Here’s a quick guide to what’s coming, why it matters, and what to watch.

1. 📊 Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) – Jobs Snapshot

🕒 When: July 3 @ 8:30 a.m. ET
📌 Who: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
📈 Expected: +120,000 jobs (June)
📉 Previous: +139,000 jobs (May)

What It Is
A monthly update on U.S. job creation (excluding farms and some public-sector roles). Think of it as a pulse check on hiring across industries like healthcare, manufacturing, and business services.

Why It Matters
NFP is a market mover. It signals whether businesses are confident enough to keep hiring and gives the Fed a reality check on economic momentum.

Market Impact

🔼 Strong NFP = Boosts stocks, USD; bond yields rise

🔽 Weak NFP = Lifts gold, bonds; stocks and USD may fall

2. 💼 Unemployment Rate & Wages – Inflation Check-In

🕒 When: July 3 @ 8:30 a.m. ET (same as NFP)
📌 Who: BLS
📊 Expected:

Unemployment: 4.3% (up from 4.2%)

Wage growth YoY: +3.9%

What They Are

Unemployment Rate: How many are jobless but still looking.

Average Hourly Earnings (AHE): Tracks wage growth—key to spotting wage-driven inflation.

Why They Matter
Rising unemployment could point to a slowing economy, while hot wage growth might worry inflation watchers at the Fed.

Market Impact

🔼 Higher unemployment = Rate cut bets rise; bonds up, stocks down

🔼 Strong wage growth = Inflation fears; yields and USD up

3. 🛍️ ISM Services PMI – Health of the U.S. Economy

🕙 When: July 3 @ 10:00 a.m. ET
📌 Who: Institute for Supply Management (ISM)
📊 Expected: 50.8
📉 Previous: 49.9 (first contraction in nearly a year)

What It Is
A survey of purchasing managers in services—covering sectors like retail, finance, healthcare, and transport. Services = ~70% of U.S. GDP.

Why It Matters
PMI tells us if the largest part of the economy is growing (above 50) or shrinking (below 50). It's also a leading indicator for inflation and demand trends.

Market Impact

🔼 PMI above forecast = Stocks, USD up

🔽 PMI below 50 = Bonds up, stocks down

IMPORTANT NOTICE: Any news, opinions, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this article are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and therefore, it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Past performance is not an indication of possible future performance. Any action you take upon the information in this article is strictly at your own risk, and we will not be liable for any losses and damages in connection with the use of this article.
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