The market is not holding back this Monday - plenty of volatility, clear price directions and multiple economic releases. The market has got one eye on the European Central Bank’s rate decision and press conference which is scheduled this Thursday. However, investors are also looking at today’s release of the Purchase Managers’ Indexes, which are considered major events.
The PMI is an survey-based index, completed by the country’s major purchasing managers which includes questions about production levels, supplies, and new orders. A figure above 50.0 is considered positive for the economy in most cases. This morning, both the UK and the EU have released their PMI figures. All the figures have left more to be desired.
On a different note, all 3 of the major US equity indices opened on a higher price forming a bullish price gap. However, all 3 have since declined to a lower price. NASDAQ is currently seeing the largest decline measuring 1.60%. The main price driver this week will continue to be market confidence which is generally frail. Although, investors are hoping the scheduled earning reports will be able to boost the price. Tomorrow’s scheduled earnings reports include Microsoft, Alphabet, and Visa.
Lastly, crude oil prices are also starting the week off in the red. The price of crude oil declined from just under $85 to $82.38. The decline was influenced by the release of the Chinese economic figures which were a mixed bag. The economy had grown faster than expected in the medium term, but consumer confidence was a big miss, which is a concern for oil traders.
GBP/USD
Out of the 6 main PMI figures released this morning, the most disappointing was the UK’s. The GBP/USD pair had opened on a higher price after the US Dollar saw a strong decline on Friday. However, since the market opened, sellers have mainly been in control of the market forming a lower swing low.
UK’s Service and Manufacturing PMI both came in lower than expected. The Manufacturing PMI was expected to come in at 47.9 but was released as 45.8. This is the lowest the figure has been since last year, and much lower than the previous month. The index has now been below 50.0 for 3 consecutive months.
GBP/USD 30-min chart on October 24th
The Service PMI was predicted to come in at 48.0 but came in lower than expected at 47.50. At this point, the index has remained below the pivotal level of 50.0 for 2 consecutive months. Overall, the latest PMI supports economist expectations that the UK economy will fall into a recession within the next few months.
Throughout the week, UK investors will also be following the race for the country’s new Prime Minister which is expected to be confirmed by Friday. The latest developments is that the ex-Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, will not be in the running as “it is not the right time”.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD is seeing a similar price condition to the GBP/USD and was again disappointed by this morning’s German and French PMI. The German Service PMI declined to 44.9, and France’s to 51.3. The German Manufacturing PMI declined to 45.7 while France scored a 47.4. Of course, German figures carry a lot more weight due to Germany’s position as the largest economy within the Eurozone.
Lastly, the exchange rate is likely to be influenced by the upcoming rate decision from the European Central Bank. The regulator is predicted to increase its Main Refinancing Rate by 0.75%, bringing the rate to the highest it’s been since the 2007-2008 banking crisis. If the regulator decides on a lower interest rate hike, it can significantly damage the value of the Euro. This is due to investors pricing in a higher rate hike.
EUR/USD 8-hour chart on October 24th
Summary:
- Both Euro and GBP are pressured by the latest round of PMI reports.
- Investors wait for the release of the US PMI reports later this afternoon.
- Crude oil is under pressure from the latest consumer confidence data in China.
- US indices decline but investors are hoping that the upcoming earning reports will boost demand.
- Microsoft, Alphabet, and Visa are all scheduled to release their earnings tomorrow.
