The final trading days of the year are here—and while the economic calendar looks quiet, this is often when markets become most deceptive.
With institutional desks winding down and liquidity thinning out, even modest data releases or positioning shifts can create outsized moves. Prices may move fast, technical levels can break without follow-through, and volatility often shows up where traders least expect it.
This isn’t the week for aggressive bets or oversized positions. Instead, it’s about understanding where risk can still appear, and which events might act as catalysts in an otherwise low-volume environment.
The 3 Economic Events Traders Should Watch
1. FOMC Meeting Minutes – A Window Into Rate Expectations
Tuesday, Dec 30
The Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes give traders insight into how policymakers are thinking beneath the headline rate decision. At this stage of the cycle, markets are hypersensitive to any language around inflation persistence, labour market strength, or the timing of future rate cuts.
Why it matters:
Can move USD, equities, bonds, and gold
Subtle shifts in tone can spark sharp reactions in thin markets
Especially relevant for traders positioning into early January
In low liquidity conditions, even slightly hawkish or dovish nuances can be amplified—so don’t underestimate this release just because it’s “old news.”
2. US Unemployment Claims – Labor Market Pulse Check
Wednesday, Dec 31
Weekly unemployment claims remain one of the most closely watched real-time indicators of US labour market health. At year-end, traders are watching for any signs of softening that could reinforce expectations of looser monetary policy in 2025.
Why it matters:
Influences rate expectations and USD sentiment
Can trigger reactions in indices and Treasury yields
Often causes quick, sharp moves during low-volume sessions
In thin markets, a surprise—up or down—can cause exaggerated price swings, especially around key technical levels.
3. China Manufacturing PMI – Global Growth Signal
Wednesday, Dec 31
China’s Manufacturing PMI offers an early look at global demand heading into the new year. Given China’s role in commodities, emerging markets, and global growth expectations, this data point often sets the tone for Asia-Pacific markets and risk sentiment more broadly.
Why it matters:
Impacts commodities, AUD, CNH, and Asian equities
Feeds into global growth and risk-on / risk-off narratives
Particularly important with China still facing structural slowdown concerns
In quiet markets, this release can disproportionately influence overnight sessions and carry momentum into European and US trading hours.
The Bigger Picture: Year-End Liquidity Is the Real Catalyst
At this point in the calendar, liquidity matters more than fundamentals.
With fewer participants in the market:
Stop runs are more common
Technical levels break more easily
Moves can look meaningful—but fail to sustain
For traders, the priority should be capital preservation, not forcing trades. Smaller size, tighter risk controls, and realistic expectations go a long way during the final days of the year.
Sometimes, the best trade is staying patient—and saving your conviction for when real volume returns in January.
