This week promises significant financial updates. On Tuesday, the Census Bureau will present July's nationwide retail sales data. Wednesday sees the Federal Reserve unveiling the latest FOMC meeting minutes, potentially hinting at future monetary policy directions. Additionally, we'll receive inflation and GDP figures from the U.K., eurozone, and Japan, as well as the US Initial Jobless Claims report on Thursday.
For a comprehensive breakdown of these events and more, be sure to read our weekly economic review.
🇬🇧 Claimant Count Change
On August 15, at 9:00 GMT+3, the UK is set to unveil the Claimant Count Change, a significant metric reflecting alterations in the number of individuals applying for unemployment benefits. As a vital pulse on the health of the UK's labor market, shifts in this data can reverberate through the financial world, potentially affecting the British Pound and currency pairings like GBP/USD. Additionally, the FTSE100 index, representing the UK's leading stock market benchmark, could also experience fluctuations in response to this release.
🇺🇸 Retail Sales m/m
On Tuesday, the Census Bureau is set to release detailed data on retail sales for July across the nation, shedding light on whether consumer spending remained robust last month. Retail sales, which are unadjusted for inflation, are believed to have increased by 0.4% in July, marking four straight months of growth. The annual growth rate is anticipated to be a mere 1%, representing the most sluggish year-over-year rise since the pandemic-induced downturn in early 2020. The National Retail Federation (NRF) anticipates a growth of 4% to 6% in retail spending for 2023. Such fluctuations in retail sales can potentially impact the US Dollar and influence US stock market movements.
🇪🇺 GDP q/q
On the horizon for this coming Wednesday, August 16th, the Eurozone eagerly awaits the unveiling of its GDP q/q figures. Historical data, coupled with projections, both consistently point to a 0.3% growth. However, even the slightest deviation from these expected numbers can introduce volatility in the financial markets. Pairs like the EUR/USD, along with other Euro-associated currency dynamics, stand particularly sensitive to such revelations. Beyond immediate forex implications, these numbers also act as a barometer, charting the ongoing and prospective economic health and momentum of the European Union, and potentially influencing investor sentiment and strategies across various asset classes.
🇺🇸 FOMC Minutes
On Wednesday, minutes from the recent FOMC meeting that took place on July 25-26 will be unveiled by the Federal Reserve. During this meeting, officials raised the interest rates by 0.25%, marking it as the 11th and probably the concluding rate increase in this tightening phase. These minutes might provide insights regarding the forthcoming trajectory of monetary policies and whether the Federal Reserve is considering further rate hikes to align inflation with their 2% goal. Based on the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, there's a 90% chance that the rates will remain unchanged in the September policy meeting.
🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims
Thursday, August 18th, is marked on many financial calendars as the day the Initial Jobless Claims report goes public at 15:30 GMT+3. As a primary gauge of fresh unemployment filings, it captures the number of individuals seeking benefits for their initial week of joblessness. The ripple effect of this data can be profound: not only does it have the capacity to impact the US Dollar's performance in the foreign exchange arena, but it also serves as a lens, offering a focused view on the pulse and vigor of the US labor market. Market participants will be closely watching for deviations from expectations, as these could hint at underlying trends and shifts in the broader economic landscape.
That's it for this week! 👋
