This week’s economic calendar is packed with data that could move markets across FX, rates, equities, and commodities. After softer U.S. price pressures in recent reports, traders are looking for clarity on whether inflation is truly cooling or still sticky—and what that means for the Fed’s rate path and risk assets. Meanwhile, the U.K. economy shows only modest growth, putting pressure on GBP and BoE policy expectations.
Here are the three releases that matter most:
📅 1) US Core CPI – Tuesday, Jan 13
What it is: Core CPI strips out food and energy, giving markets a cleaner signal on underlying inflation.
Current context: U.S. annual consumer prices slowed to ~2.6% YoY in November, the lowest core inflation since early‑2021, and below forecasts—highlighting easing price pressures.
Market impact: A stronger‑than‑expected print could revive Fed tightening bets, boost the USD, and pressure risk assets. A softer read reinforces expectations of future rate cuts, supporting equities and gold.
📅 2) US Core PPI – Wednesday, Jan 14
What it is: Core Producer Price Index measures wholesale inflation excluding food & energy—often a leading gauge for consumer prices.
Current context: Latest available data shows U.S. core producer prices rising ~2.6% YoY, signaling pipeline inflation is still elevated but off earlier peaks.
Market impact: Hotter PPI could signal persistent price pressures, keeping yields elevated and weighing on growth‑sensitive assets. Cooler PPI supports the narrative of easing inflation and could boost risk appetite.
📅 3) UK GDP – Thursday, Jan 15
What it is: Gross Domestic Product measures the total output of the U.K. economy—one of the most important indicators of economic momentum.
Current context: The U.K. economy expanded by just 0.1% in Q3 2025, a weak pace that underscores limited momentum and puts pressure on the pound.
Market impact: Stronger‑than‑expected GDP could lift GBP and temper bets on BoE cuts; softer growth reinforces dovish policy expectations and risks GBP underperformance.
🧠 What Traders Should Watch
Inflation vs. Fed expectations: If both CPI and PPI surprise higher, markets may delay pricing expected rate cuts, boosting the USD and bond yields.
Growth signals: U.K. GDP will influence GBP flows and may adjust BoE rate expectations, especially against mixed inflation prints.
Cross‑asset volatility: Moves in inflation data often ripple into equities, commodities (especially gold), and FX pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
