Top Economic Events To Watch | July 29 – August 2 – 2024

Markets are gearing up for another eventful week following a volatile period that saw mixed performance across major indexes. Last week, tech stocks pulled down the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Nasdaq-100, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 posted gains.

Significant events included President Biden's withdrawal from the election race, stronger-than-expected GDP growth, and in-line inflation data. Looking ahead, investor focus will be on earnings reports from prominent large caps, including more of the Magnificent Seven, as well as incoming economic data.

The Federal Reserve's policy meeting on July 30-31 is a key event, with policymakers not expected to cut rates but potentially signaling a September cut. These factors are likely to drive market sentiment and direction in the coming days.

🇪🇺 GDP q/q — July 30, at 12:00 GMT+3

Building on last week's events, markets now turn their attention to Europe, with the upcoming release of the Eurozone's quarterly GDP growth rate. The report, due this week, is expected to show a 0.2% growth rate, a slight deceleration from the previous quarter's 0.3%.

The GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth rate is a key economic indicator that measures the pace at which a country's or region's economy is expanding.

In anticipation of this release, the EUR/USD pair has shown some interesting movements on the 4-hour chart. The pair recently tested the 1.0825 support zone, managing to stay above the 200 simple moving average. After forming a low at 1.0825, the pair has begun to climb. Notably, it has broken above a bearish trend line, with the resistance at 1.0860 now overcome. This technical development could suggest a potential short-term bullish trend, though traders will likely be watching the GDP release closely for further directional cues.

🇺🇸 CB Consumer Confidence Index — July 30, at 17:00 GMT+3

Following the European GDP release, attention will shift to the United States with the upcoming CB Consumer Confidence Index report. This key economic indicator, published by the Conference Board, measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation.

The forecast for this report shows a substantial increase, with expectations set at 108.0, up from the previous period's 100.4.

Given the importance of this data, market participants will be closely watching its impact on several key financial instruments:

• The US Dollar, which may strengthen if the data exceeds expectations
• Major US stock indices including the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500, which could see positive movement on strong consumer confidence numbers

🇪🇺 CPI and Core CPI m/m — July 31, at 12:00 GMT+3

Another key economic release on the horizon is the Eurozone's monthly CPI (Consumer Price Index) and Core CPI data. The headline CPI is expected to show a -0.4% change, a significant drop from the previous month's 0.2% increase. This anticipated decline in inflation could be interpreted as a signal that price pressures are easing in the Eurozone, potentially paving the way for the European Central Bank to consider future interest rate cuts.

Market participants will be closely watching the EUR/USD pair in response to this data, as lower inflation expectations typically put downward pressure on a currency. However, the market reaction will also depend on how this data is viewed in the context of overall economic health and monetary policy expectations.

🇺🇸 Fed Interest Rate Decision — July 31, at 21:00 GMT+3

The Federal Reserve's July 30-31 meeting is a key event for markets. Despite some easing in inflation, with June's CPI at 3%, it's still above the Fed's 2% target. Consequently, a rate cut is unlikely this month. However, the Fed is also not expected to raise rates. Instead, experts anticipate the Fed will maintain current rates while potentially signaling a cut for the September meeting. This approach would align with the Fed's strategy of possible rate reductions in 2024.

Markets will scrutinize the Fed's statement for future policy hints, which could significantly impact stocks, bonds, and the US Dollar.

🇬🇧 BoE Interest Rate Decision — August 1, at 14:00 GMT+3

The Bank of England's (BoE) upcoming interest rate decision is drawing significant market attention. The GBP/USD pair is showing strength, trading around 1.2885, supported by a softer US Dollar.

The BoE's decision on Thursday is particularly intriguing, as there's growing speculation about a potential rate cut - the first since 2020. Market forecasts currently indicate a 50% probability of a quarter-point rate cut at this meeting.

However, opinions are divided on the timing of the cut. While some expect it to happen this week, others believe the BoE might wait until its September meeting. This uncertainty is creating volatility in the pound sterling and influencing the GBP/USD pair.

🇺🇸 Nonfarm Payrolls — August 2, at 15:30 GMT+3

The week concludes with the crucial Nonfarm Payrolls report, a key indicator of US economic health. Economists forecast 241,000 new jobs, up from last month's 206,000, suggesting continued labor market strength.

A stronger-than-expected report could support the dollar and US stocks, but might reduce the likelihood of near-term rate cuts. Conversely, a weaker report could fuel expectations of earlier rate cuts, potentially weakening the dollar but supporting bonds.

Given its importance and timing after the Fed's meeting, this release is likely to cause significant market movements across various asset classes.

That's it for this week! 👋