As July kicks off, investors are laser-focused on three major U.S. economic reports set for Wednesday, July 3. With the Fed at a crossroads and volatility picking up ahead of the holiday weekend, these releases could set the tone for markets well into Q3.
Here’s a quick guide to what’s coming, why it matters, and what to watch.
1. 📊 Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) – Jobs Snapshot
🕒 When: July 3 @ 8:30 a.m. ET
📌 Who: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
📈 Expected: +120,000 jobs (June)
📉 Previous: +139,000 jobs (May)
What It Is
A monthly update on U.S. job creation (excluding farms and some public-sector roles). Think of it as a pulse check on hiring across industries like healthcare, manufacturing, and business services.
Why It Matters
NFP is a market mover. It signals whether businesses are confident enough to keep hiring and gives the Fed a reality check on economic momentum.
Market Impact
🔼 Strong NFP = Boosts stocks, USD; bond yields rise
🔽 Weak NFP = Lifts gold, bonds; stocks and USD may fall
2. 💼 Unemployment Rate & Wages – Inflation Check-In
🕒 When: July 3 @ 8:30 a.m. ET (same as NFP)
📌 Who: BLS
📊 Expected:
Unemployment: 4.3% (up from 4.2%)
Wage growth YoY: +3.9%
What They Are
Unemployment Rate: How many are jobless but still looking.
Average Hourly Earnings (AHE): Tracks wage growth—key to spotting wage-driven inflation.
Why They Matter
Rising unemployment could point to a slowing economy, while hot wage growth might worry inflation watchers at the Fed.
Market Impact
🔼 Higher unemployment = Rate cut bets rise; bonds up, stocks down
🔼 Strong wage growth = Inflation fears; yields and USD up
3. 🛍️ ISM Services PMI – Health of the U.S. Economy
🕙 When: July 3 @ 10:00 a.m. ET
📌 Who: Institute for Supply Management (ISM)
📊 Expected: 50.8
📉 Previous: 49.9 (first contraction in nearly a year)
What It Is
A survey of purchasing managers in services—covering sectors like retail, finance, healthcare, and transport. Services = ~70% of U.S. GDP.
Why It Matters
PMI tells us if the largest part of the economy is growing (above 50) or shrinking (below 50). It's also a leading indicator for inflation and demand trends.
Market Impact
🔼 PMI above forecast = Stocks, USD up
🔽 PMI below 50 = Bonds up, stocks down
