Top Economic Events To Watch | July 10 – 14 – 2023

Our in-depth digest will cover major events that could stir up the US Dollar, international stocks, the GBP, and associated currency pairs.

Brace for key data from the US, including the pivotal CPI and PPI reports and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. From Britain, keep your eyes peeled for BoE Governor Bailey's Speech and the Claimant Count Change report. Each release holds potential to shape market dynamics and sway your investment strategies!

🇬🇧 BoE Governor Bailey's Speech

On Monday, July 10, at 9:00 GMT+3, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Bailey is scheduled to give a speech, which is keenly awaited for clues on the BoE's next interest rate move. The unexpected 50 basis point hike in the key rate on June 22 caused substantial volatility in GBP/USD and British stocks ($FTSE100).

Market participants will closely monitor Bailey's address for hints about what to expect at the next BoE meeting. His speech could be a significant guidepost for the future direction of the British market.

🇬🇧 Claimant Count Change

On Tuesday, July 11, at 9:00 GMT+3, the UK's Claimant Count Change will be released. In the last report, it was -13.6K, and this time, a slight improvement to -8.6K is expected. This indicates fewer people claiming unemployment benefits, signaling a strengthening job market. If the numbers align with expectations, it could foster positivity, potentially strengthening the GBP and boosting British stocks.

🇺🇸 June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI)

On Wednesday, July 12, at 15:30 GMT+3, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the CPI report, a crucial indicator of price trends. Despite a peak a year ago, inflation remains notably over the Fed's annual target of 2%. The expected annual headline CPI for June is to decrease from 4% in May to 3.2%, while every month, it's projected to increase by 0.4%.

The Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is projected to reduce to 5.1% annually from May's 5.3%, indicating persistent price pressures. These data could uphold the Fed's July rate increase, while lower-than-anticipated figures might lead to a softer approach by the central bank.

The release could impact assets, including the US Dollar, Nasdaq, SPX500, and Dow Jones.

🇺🇸 June’s Producer Price Index (PPI)

On Thursday, July 13, at 15:30 GMT+3, the US will release June's Producer Price Index (PPI), an indicator measuring average price changes in primary US markets by commodity producers. The PPI, a reliable pre-indicator of inflation pressures and thus a leading indicator for the CPI, assists policymakers in forming their inflation outlook and determining their interest rate trajectory. June's producer prices are predicted to rise 0.2% following May's 0.3% decline.

Year on year, analysts anticipate a modest 0.4% PPI increase compared to May's 1.1%. The recent significant slowdown in producer prices, largely due to a sharp drop in commodity prices, supports predictions of ongoing consumer inflation reduction if the trend persists.

🇺🇸 July’s Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (preliminary)

On Friday, July 14, at 17:00 GMT+3, the University of Michigan will release the preliminary July Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, a survey reflecting consumer confidence in economic activity. The index can account for up to a quarter of GDP variations, as it forecasts household spending changes, which make up roughly 70% of the economy.

Despite historically low levels, consumer sentiment strengthened in June. It's anticipated to further rise to 65.8 in July from 64.4 in June. Policymakers closely track this index since increased consumer optimism can lead to higher spending and quicker inflation.

That's it for this week! 👋