This week, investors’ attention will be focused on the Q3 2023 reports for several market-moving companies, and the economic reports of utmost importance that are scheduled to be published in the next few days.
Key among these is the US GDP Growth Annualized figures, offering a snapshot of the nation's economic vigor. Additionally, the September’s Core PCE, pivotal for its inflationary insights, and the UK’s Claimant Count Change, which reflects unemployment trends, are both set to make headlines.
These releases, coupled with the anticipated decisions from leading entities such as the ECB, promise a week full of opportunities, insights, and potential market shifts.
🇺🇸 September’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI
The week sets into motion with a crucial data release on Tuesday, October 24th, at 16:45 GMT+3: the preliminary September’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI. These reports provide a keen insight into the pulse of two foundational pillars of the US economy – the manufacturing and services sectors.
For economists, policymakers, and market analysts, the direction and velocity of changes in the PMIs can serve as an early beacon, heralding potential transformations in the overall economy.
Given the huge role these sectors play in directly impacting economic growth, Tuesday's release could cause volatility in the US Dollar as well as the Dow Jones, SPX500 and Nasdaq indices.
🇬🇧 Claimant Count Change
As the financial calendar unfurls, Tuesday, October 24th, at 9:00 GMT+3 stands out for market participants with a keen eye on the UK's economic indicators. The Claimant Count Change, a vital metric reflecting the monthly change in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits, is set for release.
Forecasts hint at a significant decrease, with projections pointing to -4.7K, marking a notable shift from the previous month's figure of 0.9K. Such a decline in claimant count typically suggests strengthening employment conditions, hinting at a potentially resilient UK job market.
Specifically, traders and investors will be watching the $GBPUSD currency pair and the $FTSE100 index, gauging potential movements based on the released figures.
🇪🇺 ECB Interest Rate Decision
This Thursday, October 26th, at 15:15 GMT+3, the financial world will turn its gaze to the Eurozone as the European Central Bank (ECB) is set to announce its latest interest rate decision. Following their last meeting in September, indications suggest the ECB is poised to keep the rates unchanged, with the current standing at 4.5%.
The real enigma, however, is the underlying sentiment of the central bank. The question on many traders' minds: is the ECB truly settled on its current stance, or might it be swayed towards another hike? Notably, recent fluctuations in bond yields indicate that investors are gradually warming up to the notion of sustained higher rates.
Additionally, as the risk of a recession looms on the horizon for next year, the Flash PMIs, which offer a snapshot of the economic health of the manufacturing sector, will undoubtedly be under scrutiny.
🇺🇸 Q3 2023 GDP Growth Annualized
As the week progresses, Thursday, October 26th, promises to be a significant day for market enthusiasts and economists alike. At 15:30 GMT+3, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will unveil the Q3 2023 GDP Growth Annualized figures, offering a preliminary view into the vitality of the US economy during the past quarter.
Current projections hint at an impressive Q3 economic expansion rate of 4.1%, marking a considerable leap from Q2's modest 2.1%. This encouraging uptick is attributed to robust gains across multiple fronts: a buoyant export sector, heightened consumer spending, and an uptick in employment figures, all collectively painting a picture of a resurgent US economic landscape.
🇺🇸 September’s Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE)
As we approach the culmination of an eventful week, Friday, October 27th, emerges as a focal point for financial markets. At 15:30 GMT+3, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis is set to release September's Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE) report.
This pivotal metric offers a nuanced view into the month-to-month spending habits of consumers, filtering out the noise of seasonally fluctuating items like food and energy. Given its precision in capturing consistent consumer trends, it's no wonder that the FOMC policymakers have designated the annual Core PCE Price Index as their primary lens for monitoring inflation.
The gravity of this data release extends further, as any unanticipated strength in the reading might indicate underlying inflationary pressures. Such a scenario could potentially herald a hawkish pivot in the Federal Reserve's outlook, leading to significant ripples across financial markets.
That's it for this week! 👋
