1. Home
  2. Markets Updates
  3. U.S. NFP Rise by 263,000 in September vs. 250,000 Expected

U.S. NFP Rise by 263,000 in September vs. 250,000 Expected

7 October 2022

Share the article:

Well, here we are waiting for the long-awaited release of the September NFP(Non-Farm Payrolls), which came in just above the expected 263,000. This reading followed August’s increase of 315,000 and came in better than the market expectation.

This may indicate that the situation in the labor market, although it has improved, remains tense. And this could still affect the most important and liquid assets like the US Dollar, gold ($XAUUSD), as well as major stock indices like Dow Jones ($DOW30), and S&P 500 ($SPX500).

What NFP at 263K means for the markets?

The dollar was the first to react to the NFP publication.

For example, the $EUR/USD fell from 0.9790 to 0.9750 reaching the lowest level in a week following the release of the US official employment report that showed numbers slightly above expectations. The greenback strengthened after the numbers.

Prior to the report, the pair was moving in the range between 0.9785 and 0.9815. It is moving away from the lows, back into the range as the initial reaction of the dollar fades.

image1.png

In contrast to the rising dollar, the major U.S. indices began to decline.

image2.png

The $DOW30 declined substantially, indicating that the markets were not ready for just such an outcome.

image3.png

The $SPX500 is also down significantly and is now trading at 3,680, moving steadily lower still.

Accordingly, the numbers triggered volatility across financial markets, ending with hours of limited price action.

In general, this reaction is perfectly logical. Dollar bears and stock bulls only need an NFP of under 100K to reach the “beginning of the end” of Fed tightening – slower rate hikes.

But that didn’t happen, and the data turned out to be softer.

What’s next?

For now, the reaction will remain until Monday – the dollar and gold may rise, and the indices may fall.

But the focus will soon shift to next week’s all-important Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Seeing peak inflation in the rearview mirror is critical for reaching peak Fed hawkishness and a market turnaround. Yet after Powell’s “pain” comments in Jackson Hole, current robust job gains suggest that one weak inflation report is insufficient for a Fed pivot – nor a market one.

Summary

  • US job growth has remained robust in September – 263K jobs gained.
  • Stock advances will likely remain “bear market rallies,” and the dollar’s reign is set to continue.
  • The Federal Reserve is likely to ramp up its hawkish rhetoric, raising the chances of fast hikes.
IMPORTANT NOTICE: Any news, opinions, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this article are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and therefore, it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Past performance is not an indication of possible future performance. Any action you take upon the information in this article is strictly at your own risk, and we will not be liable for any losses and damages in connection with the use of this article.
RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. A high percentage of retail client investors lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Related articles

Gold Stalls Between 3250 and 3350 Awaiting a Breakout Trigger
10 July 2025
XAUUSD remains range bound with neutral momentum and declining volatility. Explore the technical outlook, key levels, and potential breakout scenarios for gold.

Read more

Top Economic Events to Watch | July 7 - 11, 2025
7 July 2025
Traders and investors: don’t miss this week’s top macroeconomic drivers. We cover what’s expected from Australia’s central bank, China’s CPI/PPI, and the Fed’s June minutes.

Read more

Gladys Eguia

NAGA Weekly Recap June 30 - July 4, 2025
4 July 2025
S&P and Nasdaq held near highs while dollar dipped and gold steadied. A calm week sets the stage for big moves. Get the full market recap.

Read more

Gladys Eguia