- Home
- Blog
- Market Insights
- U.S. NFP Rise by 263,000 in September vs. 250,000 Expected
U.S. NFP Rise by 263,000 in September vs. 250,000 Expected
Well, here we are waiting for the long-awaited release of the September NFP(Non-Farm Payrolls), which came in just above the expected 263,000. This reading followed August's increase of 315,000 and came in better than the market expectation.
This may indicate that the situation in the labor market, although it has improved, remains tense. And this could still affect the most important and liquid assets like the US Dollar, gold ($XAUUSD), as well as major stock indices like Dow Jones ($DOW30), and S&P 500 ($SPX500).
What NFP at 263K means for the markets?
The dollar was the first to react to the NFP publication.
For example, the $EUR/USD fell from 0.9790 to 0.9750 reaching the lowest level in a week following the release of the US official employment report that showed numbers slightly above expectations. The greenback strengthened after the numbers.
Prior to the report, the pair was moving in the range between 0.9785 and 0.9815. It is moving away from the lows, back into the range as the initial reaction of the dollar fades.
In contrast to the rising dollar, the major U.S. indices began to decline.
The $DOW30 declined substantially, indicating that the markets were not ready for just such an outcome.
The $SPX500 is also down significantly and is now trading at 3,680, moving steadily lower still.
Accordingly, the numbers triggered volatility across financial markets, ending with hours of limited price action.
In general, this reaction is perfectly logical. Dollar bears and stock bulls only need an NFP of under 100K to reach the "beginning of the end" of Fed tightening – slower rate hikes.
But that didn't happen, and the data turned out to be softer.
What’s next?
For now, the reaction will remain until Monday – the dollar and gold may rise, and the indices may fall.
But the focus will soon shift to next week's all-important Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Seeing peak inflation in the rearview mirror is critical for reaching peak Fed hawkishness and a market turnaround. Yet after Powell's "pain" comments in Jackson Hole, current robust job gains suggest that one weak inflation report is insufficient for a Fed pivot – nor a market one.
Summary
- US job growth has remained robust in September – 263K jobs gained.
- Stock advances will likely remain "bear market rallies," and the dollar's reign is set to continue.
- The Federal Reserve is likely to ramp up its hawkish rhetoric, raising the chances of fast hikes.
Copyright © 2022 – All rights reserved.
NAGA is a trademark of The NAGA Group AG, a German based FinTech company publicly listed on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange | WKN: A161NR | ISIN: DE000A161NR7.
Any trademarks appearing on this website are the property of their respective owners.
The NAGA Group AG is the holding company of various companies, such as NAGA GLOBAL LLC, NAGA MARKETS EUROPE LTD, NAGA Technology GmbH, NAGA Pay GmbH and has a close link with NAGAX Europe OÜ.
RISK WARNING: Derivatives are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. A high percentage of retail investor accounts lose money when trading derivatives with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how derivatives work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Trading with NAGA Trader by following and/or copying or replicating the trades of other traders involves high levels of risks, even when following and/or copying or replicating the top-performing traders. Such risks include the risk that you may be following/copying the trading decisions of possibly inexperienced/unprofessional traders, or traders whose ultimate purpose or intention, or financial status may differ from yours. Before making an investment decision, you should rely on your own assessment of the person making the trading decisions and the terms of all the legal documentation.
Restricted countries: NAGA Group AG does not provide services for the residents of certain countries, such as Afghanistan, Albania, American Samoa, Anguilla, Australia, Barbados, Belgium, Bermuda, British Antarctic Territory, British Indian Ocean Territory, British Virgin Islands, Burkina Faso, Cambodia, Canada (including Quebec), Cayman Islands, Central African Republic, Congo, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Falkland Islands, Gibraltar, Guam, Haiti, Iran, Iraq, Isle of Man, Israel, Jamaica, Jordan, Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, Mali, Monaco, Montserrat, Morocco, Mozambique, Myanmar, Nicaragua, Philippines, Pitcairn Island, Russian Federation, San Marino, Senegal, Serbia, Somalia, South Georgia and the South Islands, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, St. Helena, St. Helena dependencies (Ascension Island, Tristan da Cunha), Syrian Arab Republic, Tanzania, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia, Turkey, Turks and Caicos Islands, Uganda, Ukraine, United Kingdom, US Minor Islands, US Virgin Islands, USA, Vanuatu, Yemen, Zimbabwe.
