This week marks the midpoint of February 2024, and it's shaping up to be quite eventful in terms of economic developments. Over the coming days, we anticipate several releases that could impact assets such as $GBPUSD, $EURUSD, and the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, DAX30, and SPX500 indices. Below, we outline their potential outcomes and precise release times and dates so you can plan your trading strategies with NAGA in advance.
🇬🇧 BoE Governor Bailey's Speech on Monday, February 12, at 20:00 GMT+2
On Monday, our focus should be on the speech by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey. It's likely that during his address, the Bank of England representative will touch upon the topic of the key interest rate, currently standing at 5.25%. Previously, the bank's head stated that he is less concerned about inflation, which is gradually decreasing. Therefore, if the market receives concrete signals about a rate cut at the next meeting in March, it could affect assets such as the FTSE100 and $GBPUSD, supporting stocks and putting pressure on the pound.
🇺🇸 CPI and Core CPI m/m on Tuesday, February 13, at 15:30 GMT+2
The next day, we should shift our focus to the American market, where the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected. This index serves as a key measure of inflation, gauging the change in prices of goods and services included in a fixed basket of consumer items. A higher index typically supports the US Dollar and puts pressure on American stocks. It's anticipated that the core indicator will remain unchanged, while Core CPI is expected to decrease by 0.1%.
🇪🇺 GDP q/q on Wednesday, February 14, at 12:00 GMT+2
Midweek brings us another crucial release from Europe, where GDP data for the previous quarter will be published at noon. Once again, forecasts indicate no change in the indicator for consecutive periods. Is this good or bad? It's likely to elicit a muted reaction in $EURUSD and DAX30. However, if the value deviates from the forecast, high volatility may ensue, which shouldn't be overlooked.
🇺🇸 Retail Sales m/m on Thursday, February 15, at 15:30 GMT+2
On Thursday, we return to the American market, where retail sales data for January will be released. Expectations suggest the indicator will exceed forecasts, reaching 1.1% compared to 0.6% in the previous release. These data reflect a change in US retail sales in the reported month compared to the previous one. The indicator is calculated based on statistics received from 5,000 retail stores of different types and sizes, and the data are then extrapolated to the whole country. Consequently, the US Dollar and American stocks, including the SPX500, which reached a record high of 5,000 points last week, may be affected.
🇬🇧 Retail Sales m/m on Friday, February 16, at 09:00 GMT+2
The week will conclude with the release of retail sales data for the UK for the previous month. Currently, $GBPUSD is showing modest growth amid cautious remarks from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. However, this may change after the data release. Forecasts suggest a negative value, specifically -2.1%. While this is relatively small, it still exceeds the expected -3.2%.
That's it for this week! 👋
