This week is important for the economy, with several key reports being released. Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chair, recently highlighted the importance of these reports. He mentioned that current interest rates might not be high enough to reduce inflation to below 2% yearly. Also, Powell emphasized the Fed's readiness to further tighten policies if needed.
Investors had wrongly thought the cycle of increasing interest rates was over. However, Powell's statements at the IMF indicated a continued cautious approach, with decisions based on upcoming data.
Keep an eye on these five upcoming economic events; they might impact your portfolio.
🇬🇧 Claimant Count Change
The Claimant Count Change report, set for release on Tuesday, November 14, at 9:00 GMT+2, marks the first significant economic event of the week. Issued by the UK government, this report measures the change in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the United Kingdom. The anticipated figure is -3.4K, suggesting a decrease in claimants and potentially a positive shift in the UK labor market, compared to the previous increase of 20.4K.
The data's impact is often felt in financial markets, particularly influencing the British Pound against the US Dollar ($GBPUSD) and the FTSE 100 index. A reduction in unemployment claims can be seen as a positive sign for the GBP and might bolster investor confidence in the UK economy, affecting stock market performance.
🇪🇺 GDP q/q
Kicking off Tuesday, November 14, at 12:00 GMT+2, the European Union will release its GDP (Gross Domestic Product) quarter-on-quarter data, an essential measure of economic activity and health. The forecast for this report is -0.1%, indicating a potential continuation of the same contraction rate as seen in the previous quarter, also at -0.1%.
This GDP data is a critical indicator for the Eurozone economy and can significantly impact financial markets. It is expected to influence the Euro against the US Dollar ($EURUSD) and the German stock market index DAX 30 (DAX30). The consistency of the GDP contraction might lead to speculations about the economic stability and growth prospects within the Eurozone, affecting investor sentiment and market dynamics.
🇺🇸 October’s CPI and CPI ex. Food and Energy (Core CPI)
The report is set for release on November 14, at 15:30 GMT+2. This data assesses the retail price changes of goods and services in specific data categories. Alongside the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the CPI is a primary inflation indicator. It influences consumer spending, shapes business outlooks, and plays a significant role in the Federal Reserve's policy rate decisions.
The upcoming release is particularly noteworthy. The forecast for the CPI (month-over-month) is 0.2%, a decrease from the previous figure of 0.4%. This data could significantly impact financial markets, potentially affecting the value of the Euro against the US Dollar ($EURUSD), and could also influence major stock indices like Nasdaq or Dow Jones.
🇺🇸 October’s Producer Price Index (PPI)
The Producer Price Index (PPI) report, issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is scheduled for release on Wednesday, November 15, at 15:30 GMT+2. This report is a critical indicator as it reflects the input prices faced by producers and manufacturers. As a result, the PPI is considered a reliable early indicator of inflationary pressures and serves as a leading indicator for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of the following month.
The forthcoming release of the PPI is highly anticipated, with the forecast set at 0.3%, marking a decrease from the previous figure of 0.5%.
🇺🇸 October’s Retail Sales
On Wednesday, November 15, at 15:30 GMT+2, the U.S. Census Bureau is scheduled to release a vital report detailing consumer spending on a range of durable and non-durable goods. This report is a key indicator of the economy's health, as it tracks the total amount of money consumers are spending.
The forecast for this release is notably at 0.0%, indicating no change from the previous period, which saw a rise of 0.7%. This data is particularly significant as it can influence major financial markets and is expected to impact the value of the Euro against the US Dollar ($EURUSD), the S&P 500 index ($SPX500), and the price of gold ($XAUUSD).
That's it for this week! 👋
