German Flash Manufacturing PMI – (Tuesday, 23 November)
The German Flash Manufacturing PMI is a leading indicator of economic health because firms react swiftly to market conditions, and buying managers may have the most up-to-date and relevant knowledge regarding the company's economic outlook. Manufacturing PMI growth can have a positive effect on Euro quotes and vice versa, so watch out for Euro currency pairs.
RBNZ Monetary Policy Meeting and Official Cash Rate – (Wednesday, 24 November)
On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will release the Monetary Policy Rate Statement and Official Cash Rate along with a press conference. It is one of the major tools used by the RBNZ to communicate the monetary policy to investors. It includes the outcome of their interest rate decision and a discussion of the economic variables that impacted their decision. Most significantly, it addresses the economic picture and provides predictions for future actions. So far, the RBNZ has kept its interest rate steady at 0.50%. Considering the improvements in economic conditions, the RBNZ rate decision is one of the highlights. Typically, a rate hike boosts demand for NZD and vice versa, so watch out for the NZD/USD.
US Prelim GDP q/q – (Wednesday, 24 November)
The US economy expanded by an annualized 2% quarter on quarter in Q3 2021, significantly below market expectations of 2.7 percent. It's a significant deceleration from 6.7 percent in Q2. Moreover, it's the slowest growth of the pandemic recovery as government dovish monetary policy faded and increased COVID-19 cases weighed on consumption and output. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will announce US Prelim GDP figures which stand at 2.0%, while economists expect a rise to 2.2%. Typically, stronger GDP data underpins the US dollar index and vice versa. Watch out for EUR/USD and other major pairs with the Dollar.
ECB President Lagarde Speaks – (Thursday, 25 November)
The ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver opening remarks at the ECB Legal Conference 2021 via satellite. She has greater power over the euro's value than anyone else since she is the president of the ECB, which regulates short-term interest rates. Traders pay close attention to her public appearances since they are frequently used to drop subtle hints about future monetary policy. Watch out for the EUR/USD and Euro crosses as her speech typically triggers some price action.
BOE Gov Bailey Speaks – (Thursday, 25 November)
The BOE Governor Andrew Bailey will speak at a moderated discussion with Mohamed El-Erian at the Cambridge Union. As the head of the central bank, which regulates short-term interest rates, he has the most impact on the value of the country's currency. His hawkish remarks about BoE's monetary policy are expected to be good for currency and vice versa. Watch out for GBP/USD and GBP cross pairs for price action.
Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) – (Thursday, 25 November)
The Statistics Bureau will publish the Japanese consumer price index (CPI) figures on Thursday. CPI represents price changes in Tokyo for products and services purchased by customers, excluding fresh food. Inflation is crucial for currency valuation because rising prices cause central banks to tighten monetary policy to meet their inflation-containment mandate. Japan's consumer prices increased by 0.1 percent year on year in October 2021, easing from a 0.2 percent increase the previous month. However, economists expect inflation to surge rapidly in November and December, so watch out for USD/JPY.
US Treasury Currency Report – (Friday, 26 November)
The US Department of the Treasury publishes this report which gives a comprehensive overview of worldwide exchange rate policy, economic conditions, and central bank and government actions. The report also identifies countries that the Treasury considers to be currency manipulators. The report drew significant attention during Trump's protectionist time, and it underwent some changes after Janet Yellen took over as Secretary of the Treasury. Watch out for EUR/USD and other major pairs with the Dollar.
That's it for this week!
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