NAGA’s Weekly Recap | February 27 — 2023 — March 3 — 2023

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As we approach the end of the first week of March 2023, investors are keeping a close eye on the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates, which is expected to impact the US Dollar and US Indices significantly.

Additionally, major retailers such as Macy's, Best Buy, and Costco face inflation challenges, causing consumers to tighten their budgets. In the commodities market, experts predict that Gold could rise above $1865 due to various catalysts.

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The Fed’s stance on interest rates to depend on CPI figures

As the first week of March ends, investors will start to position themselves and plan for new monetary policy changes. The Federal Reserve is expected to confirm its rate decision on March 22nd, alongside the Fed’s economic projections and the president’s press conference. These events will very likely influence both the US Dollar and US Indices. Investors will mainly be focused on how much the Fed will choose to hike interest rates.

Discover the latest indications from the FOMC and how the CPI and PPI figures will determine interest rates for the USD!

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Macy’s, Best Buy, and Costco issue tepid guidance for 2023 as inflation weighs on consumers

The latest reports from some of the biggest US retailers reveal that consumers are tightening their belts and buying less discretionary items like apparel and electronics while still spending on groceries and other necessities.

Retailers such as Macy's ($M.N) and Best Buy ($BBY) have seen a divergence in fortunes, with some struggling while others see an increase in sales. Shoppers are also buying lower-cost store brands and smaller sizes of some items to stretch their budgets.

Also, retailers like Costco ($COST) feel the cuts. The giant's stock has started to decline after mixed earnings results.

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Experts see all chances for Gold to rise above $1865

Gold approaches the $1,865 hurdle as key US catalysts loom. It seems the Gold price appears well-set to print the first weekly gain in five as the metal buyers cheer a softer US Dollar. Adding strength to the bullion’s latest rebound could be the retreat in the US Treasury bond yields from multi-day highs.

The latest round of Federal Reserve (Fed) talks renew the policy pivot speculations and joined mixed US data to exert downside pressure on the US Dollar, as well as the Treasury bond yields. It’s worth noting that the impressive PMIs from China and the policymakers’ readiness to resume the trade talks between Beijing and Washington also seem to keep the Gold buyers hopeful.

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EUR/USD rises above 1.0600 amid USD weakness ahead of ISM PMI

Following Wednesday's upsurge, EUR/USD turned south and erased nearly all the previous day's gains on Thursday. The pair, however, managed to stage a rebound early Friday and climbed above 1.0600.

The Euro's recent action reflects investors' indecisiveness as focus shifts to the US ISM Services PMI report for February and comments from central bank officials.

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This concludes our weekly recap. Have a great weekend and see you next week! 👋