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XAUUSD on a 4-hour timeframe.
Gold has experienced a choppy yet generally sideways market structure since early May, with price oscillating between a resistance zone near 3400 and a support floor around 3164. Previous attempts to break either boundary have consistently failed, reinforcing the significance of these levels. Notably, price action in early June and mid-July formed short-term double top around the 3400 zone, indicating selling pressure at that resistance level. The market has also displayed recurrent swing lows near 3164, which has acted as a strong support line since early May.
Most recently, XAUUSD broke below the clustered moving averages (50, 100, 200 EMA) and sharply dropped from the 3350 region down to around 3250, before bouncing modestly. This pullback formed a potential short-term bottom just below the 3296 key level, with the current candlesticks attempting to regain ground toward this resistance. The last major bearish leg suggests strong downside momentum, and the small bullish recovery appears corrective in nature.
From an indicator standpoint, RSI is currently around 41 and recovering from oversold levels. Stochastic Oscillator has already crossed upward from oversold territory, hinting at potential short-term bullish momentum, showing mild bullish divergence with price action—price made a lower low while Stochastic Oscillator made a slightly higher low. All key EMAs (red 20, green 50, blue 100, yellow 200) are now sloping downward, with the 20 EMA below the others, indicating that bearish control still dominates. The 3296 level is now acting as near-term resistance, while the next major support below lies at 3164.
If XAUUSD can sustain its rebound and break above the 3296 resistance level, a short-term rally toward the 3350–3400 area could unfold, especially if bullish divergence and Stochastic momentum play out further. This bullish scenario would likely be corrective in nature unless price closes decisively above 3400, invalidating the recent lower high structure.
Alternatively, if price fails to reclaim the 3296 zone and resumes its descent, bears could drive price toward 3164, where prior demand has emerged consistently. A decisive break of 3164 would expose the next support zone at 3054, with risk of acceleration given the confluence of declining EMAs and weakening mid-term bullish structure.
Over the past few days, gold prices have been pressured by stronger-than-expected U.S. macro data, including better GDP and durable goods orders, which have strengthened the U.S. dollar. This week’s focus turns to Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and Average Hourly Earnings, which will provide insight into labor market strength and inflationary pressures. Additionally, several Fed speakers are on the docket, and their tone may sway interest rate expectations further, particularly after recent FOMC remarks hinted at a cautious approach to rate cuts. Traders should closely monitor these developments, as they are likely to drive short-term volatility in gold.
SUMMARY:
- Range-Bound: Gold stuck between 3400 resistance and 3164 support since May, with multiple failed breakouts.
- Bearish Shift: Recent drop below clustered EMAs signals growing downside pressure.
- Weak Rebound: Price struggling to reclaim 3296; bullish bounce looks corrective, not impulsive.
- Macro Watch: Strong U.S. data and upcoming NFP keep pressure on gold — volatility expected.
