Get ready — markets are entering a high-octane phase where labour numbers and central-bank moves could trigger across-asset volatility. With the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Bank of England (BoE) and the U.S. employment report all on the calendar, traders should be alert for sharp moves in currencies, equities and commodities.
1. RBA Cash Rate Decision – Tue Nov 4
What to watch:
The RBA’s cash rate currently stands at 3.60 %, and economists widely expect it will hold at this level this week.
Inflation in Australia is heating up: headline inflation jumped to 3.2% yr/yr in the September quarter (from ~2.1% in June). The Guardian+1
Underlying inflation (trimmed mean) is around 1.0% for the quarter which signals inflation pressures remain above comfort levels.
Why it matters:
If the RBA holds and signals that rate cuts are off the table — given inflation risks — that could strengthen the AUD and influence risk-asset sentiment in Asia-Pacific.
Conversely, if the RBA introduces dovish language (despite the inflation uptick) or discusses more accommodative policy, the AUD could weaken.
For young traders: watch AUD-USD, AUD-JPY, and NZD cross pairs around the meeting and the post-meeting statement for potential breakout moves.
2. Bank of England Rate Decision – Thu Nov 6
What to watch:
The BoE’s benchmark rate is at 4.00%, with most economists anticipating it will stay unchanged this week. Reuters+1
UK inflation remains elevated: CPIH (incl. owner occupiers’ housing costs) rose 4.1% yr/yr in August, and CPI at 3.8%. Office for National Statistics
Wage growth remains strong: average earnings (ex-bonuses) rose 4.7% yr/yr in the three months to August; real wage growth (+1.2% after inflation) indicates labour costs are still feeding inflation.
Why it matters:
The BoE holds a “watch-and-wait” stance, but sticky wage growth plus inflation means the market is pricing only a ~1-in-3 chance of a rate cut this week. Reuters
For GBP pairs, especially GBP-USD and EUR-GBP, traders should focus on the BoE’s tone: any hint of a tighter stance could boost GBP; a dovish tilt could see GBP slide.
Also look for commentary on the labour market and inflation outlook. Trade setups around press-conference highs/lows may offer good short-term opportunities.
3. U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Report – Fri Nov 7 (Tentative)
What to watch:
The next release of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls is scheduled for Friday, November 7, 2025.
Recent data show job growth in the U.S. has cooled sharply: for example in August 2025 the increase was just +22 K (versus +79 K previously) which underscores labour market weakness.
Given inflation concerns and central-bank scrutiny (i.e., Federal Reserve watching wage & labour trends), this reading is critical.
Why it matters:
A stronger than expected jobs print may reinforce the Fed’s “higher for longer” rate narrative — lifting the USD and potentially weighing on equities and gold.
A weaker print could increase risk appetite, weaken the USD, strengthen risk-assets, and possibly spur gold/commodities higher.
For traders: watch USD-JPY, GBP-USD, EUR-USD, and spot gold during the release. Also monitor how the market re-prices Fed cut expectations.
🧠 Trader Game-Plan
Pre-event: mark key support/resistance zones for the pairs mentioned.
Post-announcement: watch initial volatility then look for trend establishment (15-min, 1-h charts).
Manage risk: keep stops tight around rate decision events – the market can whip quickly.
Note: For the U.S. report, the schedule may still be tentative due to the government shutdown risk. odaily.news
