Markets are lining up for a week where central banks and labor data could set the tone heading into mid-October. With rate cut expectations still hanging in the balance, traders will be watching closely for signals on where policy and sentiment are headed next. Out of the six events on the calendar, here are the three that stand out most:
1. RBNZ Interest Rate Decision (Oct 8)
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand takes the spotlight early in the week. The RBNZ has kept rates high to battle sticky inflation, but the domestic economy is showing signs of strain—growth is sluggish, the housing market is cooling, and consumer demand is weakening. Traders will be focused on whether policymakers stick to their hawkish script or start hinting at future cuts.
Why it matters:
A hawkish hold (emphasizing inflation risks) could lift the NZD sharply.
A dovish shift (acknowledging growth headwinds) may trigger selling pressure on the kiwi.
Expect volatility in NZD crosses, particularly against USD and AUD.
2. Fed FOMC Meeting Minutes (Oct 8)
The Fed’s September meeting minutes could be the biggest driver of the week. While no one expects a surprise, the details matter. Traders want to know whether there’s a genuine push inside the committee for cutting rates soon, or if “higher for longer” is still the dominant view. With inflation easing but not collapsing, the Fed’s tone will shape dollar flows and broader risk appetite.
Key angles to watch:
Any language suggesting unity around a near-term cut would be dollar-negative and bullish for equities.
Signs of division or hesitation could reinforce market caution.
Bond yields will likely react first, followed by equities and FX.
3. U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims (Oct 9)
It’s not the flashiest report, but jobless claims are one of the cleanest real-time reads on the U.S. labor market. The Fed has been clear: the path of rates depends heavily on jobs data. If claims creep higher, it’s another piece of evidence that labor demand is cooling, which would strengthen the case for policy easing.
What’s at stake:
Rising claims = softer labor market → higher chances of rate cuts → weaker USD, stronger equities.
Steady or falling claims = resilient labor market → supports higher-for-longer rates → firmer USD, pressure on risk assets.
Quick Weekly Trading Watchlist
NZD/USD:
Watch for sharp swings around the RBNZ rate decision.
Key support/resistance: 0.6350 / 0.6450
USD Index (DXY):
Fed minutes could trigger a broad move in the dollar.
Keep an eye on 105.50–106.50 range for short-term volatility
S&P 500 (SPX):
Sensitive to labor data and Fed sentiment.
Short-term resistance near 4500, support around 4420
US 10-Year Yield:
Likely to react first to Fed minutes and jobless claims.
Watch for breakouts above 4.90% or dips below 4.80%
Bottom line:
RBNZ policy, Fed minutes, and U.S. jobless claims are the key events that could shift market dynamics this week. Traders should stay nimble, monitor FX pairs, equities, and yields closely, and use these events to anticipate volatility rather than react to it.
