Top Economic Events to Watch | March 24 - 28, 2025

Get ready for a fast-moving week in the markets. The Fed’s rate pause has fueled a tech rally, but with inflation data on deck, that momentum could shift quickly. The Bank of England is holding steady on rates, signaling concerns over weak growth. Meanwhile, Europe’s crackdown on U.S. tech giants and the UK’s massive £310bn bond sale could shake things up. Add in ongoing U.S. trade tensions, and we’re looking at a market primed for sharp moves. Stay focused—key inflation and GDP data will set the tone. 

Let us break down the top economic events to watch this week and what they mean for the markets.

March 27 – U.S. GDP Growth Rate (Q4): How Strong is the Economy? 

The U.S. GDP report is a big deal because it tells us how fast (or slow) the economy is growing. Investors and policymakers watch this closely to gauge whether the economy is overheating or cooling off. This number can make or break expectations for Fed rate cuts. 

🔹 If GDP is strong: The Fed might keep rates higher for longer, which could hurt stocks and push bond yields up. 
🔹 If GDP is weak: Markets will cheer, expecting rate cuts sooner. Stocks could rally, and the dollar might take a hit. 

Bottom line: A surprise in either direction will shake up markets. 

March 28 – U.S. PCE Price Index (Feb): The Fed’s Favorite Inflation Gauge 

The PCE Price Index is the inflation report the Fed actually cares about. If inflation is still running hot, the Fed may hold off on rate cuts, keeping borrowing costs high. If it’s cooling, the odds of rate cuts go up, and markets will love that. 

🔹 Higher-than-expected inflation: Bad news for rate-cut hopes—expect stocks to struggle, bond yields to rise, and the dollar to strengthen. 
🔹 Lower-than-expected inflation: The Fed gets closer to cutting rates, likely boosting stocks, lowering yields, and weakening the dollar. 

Bottom line: This is a make-or-break moment for the rate-cut timeline. 

March 29 – China Manufacturing PMI (Mar): A Signal for Global Growth 

China’s Manufacturing PMI is a key indicator of how the world’s second-largest economy is doing. Since China is a massive consumer of raw materials, its economic health affects everything from oil prices to global stock markets. 

🔹 Above 50 (expansion): Good news—strong demand could lift global markets, especially commodities and emerging markets. 
🔹 Below 50 (contraction): A slowdown could rattle markets, weighing on commodities and hurting economies that rely on China’s demand. 

Bottom line: If China’s manufacturing sector stumbles, expect ripple effects across global markets. 

Stay alert and keep your strategies flexible 🔍; this week could bring some significant challenges or surprises 💡.