Top Economic Events to Watch | May 12 - May 16, 2025

If you're a trader, you know that financial markets are driven by data, events, and news. But how do you know which ones really matter? Let’s break down three important events coming up this week that can seriously move the markets.

May 13: US Consumer Price Index (CPI) y/y

What Is It?

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the most widely-followed measures of inflation. It tracks how much the prices of everyday goods (like food, gas, and housing) have risen over the past year. This gives you a snapshot of how much your money is worth compared to last year. If you’ve noticed your coffee costing more lately, CPI is probably why.

Why It Matters

CPI matters because it’s a direct reflection of inflation, which central banks (like the Federal Reserve) keep a close eye on. If CPI is higher than expected, it could signal that inflation is rising too quickly, which might lead to an interest rate hike from the Fed. On the flip side, if CPI is lower, it could signal that inflation is under control, which might keep interest rates stable—or even lower them.

What It Impacts

US Dollar (USD): A higher-than-expected CPI could make the dollar stronger as traders bet on higher rates.

Stock Markets: A spike in inflation can shake up the markets, especially tech stocks, which are sensitive to higher rates.

Commodities: Inflation hedges like gold and silver often rise when CPI is high, as investors turn to them for protection.

May 15: UK Q1 2025 GDP (Preliminary)

What Is It?

GDP stands for Gross Domestic Product, and it's essentially the total value of all goods and services produced in a country. The UK’s preliminary Q1 GDP report will give us the first look at how the UK economy performed in the first three months of 2025. It’s a major piece of the puzzle when evaluating a country's economic health.

Why It Matters

If the UK’s GDP is stronger than expected, it can indicate a healthy, growing economy. This could support the British Pound (GBP), as stronger growth usually means higher demand for the currency. On the other hand, a disappointing GDP figure could send the pound lower, especially if it suggests that the UK is struggling with its post-Brexit recovery.

What It Impacts

GBP/USD: A strong GDP reading could give the pound a lift against the US dollar.

FTSE 100 Index: The stock market might react as investors adjust expectations for corporate earnings and economic growth.

UK Bonds: A weak GDP might cause investors to flock to safe-haven assets like UK government bonds, pushing bond yields lower.

May 15: US Retail Sales m/m (April)

What Is It?

Retail sales data measures how much consumers are spending in the retail sector. The April retail sales report is a critical gauge of consumer confidence and economic activity. Since consumer spending is the engine that drives the US economy, a healthy retail sales report can signal that consumers are feeling good and willing to spend.

Why It Matters

Strong retail sales show that consumers are confident and spending money, which can drive economic growth. On the other hand, a weak retail sales report might suggest that consumers are cutting back, which could be a sign of economic trouble ahead. Since the US economy is heavily driven by consumer spending, this report carries a lot of weight.

What It Impacts

US Dollar (USD): Strong retail sales could boost the US dollar, as traders anticipate continued economic strength.

Stock Markets: Major indices like the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones often move based on consumer sentiment, so a strong retail sales figure could be bullish for stocks.

Retail Stocks: Companies like Amazon, Walmart, and Target are sensitive to retail sales data. If sales are strong, expect these stocks to be in the spotlight.

How to Trade Around These Events

Now that you know what these events are and why they matter, how should you trade them? Here's the trick: Expect volatility. Big data releases like these can cause sharp price movements, especially if the numbers come in above or below expectations.

Here are a few tips:

Don’t trade on just the data: Markets can be unpredictable after big events. Use your technical analysis to find entry and exit points.

Risk management is key: With so much volatility, ensure you're using stop-losses to protect your trades.

Stay updated: These events are going to be widely discussed—make sure you're tuned in to news releases and NAGA’s analysis as these events unfold.

So, whether you’re new to trading or looking to sharpen your skills, understanding how these events can impact the markets is a great way to level up your trading strategy. Keep an eye on these events, and trade smart!

Ready to take your trading to the next level? Stay tuned for more real-time updates and market insights from NAGA.