The rollercoaster week on Wall Street ended with a thud as chip stocks took a nosedive and mixed jobs data painted a confusing picture of the economy. Investors grappled with the implications – could rising interest rates derail the recent rally?
This week, all eyes turn to inflation reports, the key puzzle piece that could determine the Fed's next move and the fate of the markets.
🇺🇸 CPI and Core CPI m/m on Tuesday, March 12, at 14:30 GMT+2
The March Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI (which excludes volatile food and energy prices) will be released on Tuesday, March 12th at 14:30 GMT+2. These reports offer vital insights into the state of inflation in the US economy. Economists forecast a 0.2% increase for headline CPI, slightly below the previous month's 0.3% reading.
Why it matters: CPI data heavily influences Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, which in turn impact consumer spending, business investment, and overall market direction. Be prepared for potential volatility in assets like EUR/USD, Nasdaq, SPX500, and Dow Jones as investors interpret the latest inflation figures.
🇬🇧 GDP m/m on Wednesday, March 13, at 9:00 GMT+2
Get ready for the release of the UK's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for March on Wednesday, March 13th at 9:00 GMT+2. GDP is the ultimate measure of a nation's overall economic activity. It reflects the total value of goods and services produced within a country's borders during a specific period.
Why it matters: A positive GDP reading suggests economic expansion, while a negative one indicates contraction. This report provides crucial insights into the UK's economic trajectory, influencing decisions by policymakers, businesses, and investors. Economists forecast a flat 0.0% GDP growth for March, potentially signaling stabilization after the previous month's -0.1% decline. Expect possible market movements in the GBP/USD currency pair and the FTSE 100 index as the data unfolds.
🇬🇧 Manufacturing Production m/m on Wednesday, March 13, at 9:00 GMT+2
On Wednesday, March 13th at 9:00 GMT+2, the UK releases its latest Manufacturing Production report. This data reveals the month-over-month change in the output of the UK's manufacturing sector, a crucial component of the economy.
Why it matters: Manufacturing Production is a key indicator of industrial health and economic momentum. A positive reading signals growth in the sector, while a negative number suggests contraction. Economists forecast a -0.3% decline in manufacturing production for March, a downturn from the previous month's 0.8% increase. This data release could influence the GBP/USD exchange rate and the FTSE 100 index, as investors assess the UK's economic outlook.
🇺🇸 PPI and Core PPI on Thursday, March 14, at 14:30 GMT+2
On Thursday, March 14th at 14:30 GMT+2, the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) and Core PPI reports will be released. These reports track changes in wholesale prices, giving a key look at the costs faced by businesses. Since these costs often translate to consumer prices, the PPI serves as a leading inflation indicator.
Why it matters: The PPI offers early insights into potential price pressures in the economy, influencing the Federal Reserve's outlook on inflation and interest rates. Economists forecast a 0.1% increase in headline PPI for March, a slowdown from the previous month's 0.3% rise. Expect market reactions in assets sensitive to inflation news.
🇺🇸 Retail Sales m/m on Thursday, March 14, at 14:30 GMT+2
Thursday, March 14th at 14:30 GMT+2 marks the release of the latest Retail Sales report. This critical data point reveals how much consumers are spending on goods, offering insights into economic strength and inflationary pressures. Economists predict a -0.2% change for March, signaling potential improvement from the previous month's -0.8% decline.
Why it matters: Retail Sales illuminate consumer behavior, a key driver of the economy. Stronger spending suggests economic health, while weakness can signal trouble ahead. This report also influences inflation expectations and Federal Reserve policy. Be prepared for potential market reactions in US stocks and the US Dollar as this data is released.
That's it for this week! 👋
