Welcome to the second half of 2024!
The upcoming week is filled with releases from the US and Europe, including insights into inflation in the Eurozone and economic activity in the US for the previous month. Below are details in our overview of the five upcoming releases, their forecasts, and potential impacts on assets.
🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing PMI — July 1, at 17:00 GMT+3
As the business week begins after an extended weekend, market attention shifts towards pivotal economic indicators, notably the upcoming ISM Manufacturing PMI. Forecasts anticipate a reading of 49.2, up from the previous 48.7, underscoring potential resilience in the US manufacturing sector. A figure above 50 indicates expansion, which could bolster the US Dollar, exerting downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair.
EUR/USD struggles to extend gains amid consolidation ahead of the key release. Meanwhile, Gold prices retreated from two-week highs early Friday, encountering resistance near the $2,330 mark.
🇪🇺 CPI and Core CPI m/m — July 2, at 12:00 GMT+3
The European CPI (Consumer Price Index) and Core CPI releases are crucial gauges of inflation trends in the Eurozone.
Forecasts suggest a month-over-month CPI increase of 0.6%, matching the previous figure of 0.2%, while the year-over-year CPI is expected to hold steady at 2.6%.
A higher-than-expected CPI could signal rising inflationary pressures, potentially bolstering the euro amid speculation of tighter ECB policy. Conversely, a lower-than-expected CPI may dampen the euro, indicating subdued inflation and reinforcing dovish ECB sentiments.
These releases also have implications for the DAX30 index, sensitive to economic indicators and currency fluctuations.
🇪🇺 S&P Global Composite PMI — July 3, at 11:00 GMT+3
The index is closely watched by businesses and investors as it can provide insights into the health of the global economy. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
Analysts expect the PMI to edge higher to 50.8. This indicates that the Europe economy is expanding, albeit at a slower pace.
The release of the S&P Global Composite PMI could have a significant impact on the EUR/USD currency pair. If the PMI comes in stronger than expected, it could boost risk sentiment and support the euro. Conversely, a weaker-than-expected reading could weigh on the euro.
🇺🇸 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI — July 3, at 17:00 GMT+3
On the upcoming release of the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, with a forecast of 54.6 and a previous result of 53.8, investors keenly await its implications for the SPX500 rally and the possibility of reaching new historical highs.
A PMI above 50 indicates expansion in the non-manufacturing sector, which could sustain the momentum for the SPX500 rally. However, a figure below expectations might temper market optimism, potentially hindering the index's ascent to new highs.
🇺🇸 Nonfarm Payrolls — July 5, at 15:30 GMT+3
This report is pivotal for assessing US economic health, reflecting changes in non-farm employment. Forecasts indicate an expected increase of 287K jobs, up from the previous 272K. This release, marking the end of the week, carries significant implications for assets such as Nasdaq, SPX500, Dow Jones, and the US Dollar.
That's it for this week! 👋
