Financial markets have recently shown resilience amid mixed economic signals and upcoming central bank speeches. Gold prices remain near record highs, supported by key psychological and technical levels, while the euro has held steady.
However, this week's focus shifts to two critical economic releases: U.S. GDP and European inflation data. These indicators have the potential to significantly impact investor sentiment and asset valuations across various markets.
Stay tuned for our comprehensive coverage of these events that could shape the near-term financial landscape.
🇺🇸 Core Durable Goods Orders m/m — August 26, at 15:30 GMT+3
The week kicks off with a key economic indicator that measures new orders for long-lasting manufactured goods, excluding transportation items. This Core Durable Goods Orders report provides crucial insights into business investment and consumer spending patterns in the United States. Economists are forecasting a modest increase of 0.2%, down from the previous month's stronger 0.5% growth. This slowdown, if confirmed, could signal a cooling in business investment amid ongoing economic uncertainties.
The release has the potential to influence the already volatile EUR/USD pair, which has been on a bullish run recently. The euro has gained significant ground against the dollar, pushing the pair above the 1.1200 level. This rally has been fueled by recent employment data and the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, both of which have weighed on the US dollar.
🇺🇸 CB Consumer Confidence Index — August 27, at 17:00 GMT+3
This week's consumer sentiment report is poised to offer valuable insights into the American public's economic outlook and spending propensity. Analysts are projecting an uptick in the Consumer Confidence Index to 104.2, a notable improvement from the previous month's 100.3. This anticipated boost could signal a growing sense of financial security and economic optimism among U.S. consumers.
The release of this data is drawing significant attention from market participants, particularly due to its potential impact on major stock indices. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 have already shown signs of positivity, each registering modest gains of approximately 1% in the lead-up to this report. This subtle upward movement suggests a cautious yet optimistic stance among investors regarding the forthcoming consumer sentiment figures.
🇺🇸 GDP q/q — August 29, at 15:30 GMT+3
The spotlight this week falls on the quarterly GDP report, a key indicator of U.S. economic health. While economists project a steady growth rate of 2.8%, mirroring the previous quarter's performance, any unexpected variation could spark substantial fluctuations in the US Dollar and technology-focused indices such as the Nasdaq.
This comprehensive economic snapshot carries significant weight, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory and shaping market sentiment across various sectors.
🇪🇺 CPI and Core PCI m/m — August 30, at 12:00 GMT+3
In the Eurozone, attention turns to the latest inflation figures, encompassing both headline CPI and Core CPI data. The monthly CPI is forecast to tick up to 0.3%, a notable shift from the previous month's flat reading of 0.0%. Meanwhile, the annual inflation rate is expected to hold steady. These inflation metrics play a pivotal role in guiding the European Central Bank's monetary strategy and could trigger significant movements in the DAX index and EUR/USD currency pair.
Market participants will be on high alert for any deviations from these projections, as unexpected results could inject volatility into European financial markets and impact the euro's valuation.
🇺🇸 PCE Price Index m/m — August 30, at 15:30 GMT+3
Rounding off the week is the release of the PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve's go-to gauge for inflationary trends. Analysts anticipate the monthly figure to remain consistent at 0.1%, aligning with the previous report. This data serves as a crucial barometer for assessing price pressures within the economy and could sway the Fed's policy deliberations. Should the actual figures diverge from expectations, it may trigger ripple effects across the US Dollar, Treasury yields, and major stock indices.
The market's reaction to this release could set the tone for investor sentiment as we transition into the following week, potentially influencing trading strategies and asset allocations across the financial landscape.
That's it for this week! 👋
