Top Economic Events To Watch | August 19 – August 23 – 2024

The stock markets ended their best week since November, breaking a four-week losing streak. The Dow Jones climbed 2.94%, while the S&P 500 gained 3.93%. Tech shares led the rebound, with the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq-100 soaring 5.29% and 5.38%, respectively.

After weeks of sell-offs driven by fears of a hard landing, new data showing strong consumer activity and easing inflation revived market optimism. This spurred "dip buyers," particularly in tech.

This week brings key economic events, including the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. Powell is expected to signal the start of monetary policy easing, with a potential interest rate cut in September.

Stay tuned as we preview the major economic releases for the week of August 19-23.

🇪🇺 CPI and Core CPI m/m — August 20, at 12:00 GMT+3

The week kicks off with the release of European CPI and Core CPI m/m data. Expectations are for no changes in the monthly figures, with CPI likely coming in at 0.0% and Core CPI at -0.2%, both in line with previous readings. However, if the actual data deviates from these forecasts, we could see a strong reaction in the EUR/USD pair and the DAX index. These inflation figures will set the tone for the week, as investors closely watch for any signs of economic shifts in the Eurozone.

🇺🇸 FOMC Minutes — August 21, at 21:00 GMT+3

The FOMC Minutes, set to be released this Wednesday, are among the most anticipated events of the week, offering a deep dive into the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. Published three weeks after the Fed's last policy decision, these minutes will reveal the committee members' views on the economy and provide crucial insights into potential future rate cuts, especially if inflation continues to cool.

For traders, these minutes are vital, particularly as the EUR/USD pair surged to a new 2024 high at 1.1046 earlier last week. Although the momentum has slightly eased, the pair remains strong around the 1.1000 mark. The details within the minutes could significantly influence market direction across multiple assets, making this a must-watch event for investors.

🇪🇺 S&P Global Composite PMI — August 22, at 11:00 GMT+3

On Thursday, the S&P Global Composite PMI is set to be released, with expectations of a slight decline to 49.8 from the previous 50.2. This drop would indicate a contraction in economic activity, as any reading below 50 signals a decline. If the data meets or falls below expectations, it could weigh on market sentiment, particularly affecting the EUR/USD pair and European stock indices like the DAX.

A weaker-than-expected PMI could signal increasing economic pressures, potentially prompting a shift in market strategies, especially in sectors sensitive to economic cycles. Investors will be paying close attention, as this data could influence the broader market direction for the rest of the week.

🇺🇸 Fed Chair Powell Speech — August 23, at 17:00 GMT+3

Capping off the week is Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on Friday, August 23. This annual event, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City since 1978, is a global forum for central bankers, policy experts, and academics. Powell’s address is highly anticipated, as it is expected to lay the groundwork for a rate reduction in September. However, with markets already pricing in this move, the focus will shift to the extent of the rate cuts in September and beyond.

In anticipation of Powell's speech, gold prices surged to an all-time high, rising over 2%, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 3.88%. Investors are also keeping a close watch on stocks and indices, as the outcomes from Jackson Hole could significantly impact market sentiment.

🇬🇧 BoE Governor Bailey Speech — August 23, at 18:00 GMT+3

On the same day as Powell's speech, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will also address the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, August 23. While the full schedule for the event is yet to be released, Bailey's speech has already been confirmed by the BOE. Although the title and topic remain undisclosed, his remarks will be closely watched by the market, particularly with the September 19 meeting pricing in a 38% chance of a rate cut and 62% for no change to the Bank Rate.

This speech could have significant implications for the GBP/USD pair and could also impact UK equities like the FTSE 100. Investors will be keen to gauge Bailey's stance as it could provide crucial insights into the Bank of England's future policy direction.

That's it for this week! 👋