This week marks the beginning of the penultimate month of 2023. This means that many economic events will set the tone for the financial markets for weeks to come.
Specifically, the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision will be announced on Wednesday. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has signaled that rates will be high for longer until inflation reaches the central bank's target of 2%. Also, on the economic front, the October jobs report will be released on Friday. But that's not all. We've outlined all the key economic events you should focus on now.
🇪🇺 Eurozone GDP q/q
Kicking off this week's slate of economic releases, the Eurozone will unveil its quarter-over-quarter GDP figures on 31st October, Tuesday, at 12:00 GMT+2. This report provides an essential glimpse into the economic growth rate of the Eurozone. Forecasts currently point to a modest increase, with an anticipated rise of 0.2%, up from the previous 0.1%. Given the report's significance, it's no surprise that in the lead-up, the EUR/USD pair has gained traction, advancing toward the 1.0600 mark. Market participants and forex traders, in particular, should keep a close watch, as this release could further influence the trajectory of the EUR/USD pair.
🇺🇸 October’s Consumer Confidence Index
On 31st October, Tuesday, at 16:00 GMT+2, the Conference Board will release its Consumer Confidence Report, a vital metric that sheds light on the level of confidence consumers hold towards economic activity. Given that consumer spending represents approximately 70% of the US GDP, this index stands as one of the pivotal leading indicators. The upcoming release forecasts a figure of 104.5, a slight increase from the previous 103.0. Investors and market watchers should note that this report can significantly influence the US Dollar as well as major indexes such as the Nasdaq and Dow Jones.
🇺🇸 October’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI
On Wednesday, at 16:00 GMT+2, market participants will be closely monitoring the release of the PMI indices, which evaluate business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As one of the principal sectors of the US economy, the manufacturing landscape plays a direct role in influencing economic growth. The PMI indices are recognized as leading economic indicators, offering economists and analysts immediate insights into shifts in economic conditions. Notably, variations in the direction and pace of the PMIs typically foreshadow broader changes in the overall economy, making this release a must-watch for those tracking US economic health.
🇺🇸 Fed Interest Rate Decision
Before the week concludes with the Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment reports, attention will be firmly fixed on the Fed Interest Rate Decision slated for release on Wednesday at 20:00 GMT+2.
In the run-up to this significant announcement, the US Dollar witnessed an uptick in early European trade on Monday, sustaining the momentum from the previous week. It's worth recalling that at its last rendezvous in September, The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) chose to maintain its rate, having previously elevated it to a bracket of 5.25% to 5.50% in July. As anticipation builds, market speculations are rife; while some expect the rate to hold steady at 5.50%, others forecast a possible hike of 0.25%.
Whatever the outcome, it's undeniable that the decision will reverberate across multiple assets, including the US Dollar and indexes such as the SPX500.
🇺🇸 October’s Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Concluding this week's economic announcements, on Friday, at 14:30 GMT+2, the spotlight will be on the release of the Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment reports by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. These reports detail the number of new jobs established in the prior month and the percentage of individuals actively on the job hunt during that same period. Recognized as two of the most crucial economic barometers, the figures offer a snapshot of the overall health of the economy. The Federal Reserve, with one of its primary mandates being full employment, closely tracks these shifts in the labor market, which, in turn, directly influence its policy decisions. These policies significantly affect the capital markets, underscoring the importance of this impending release for investors and analysts alike.
That's it for this week! 👋
