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NAGA Weekly Recap August 18 - 22, 2025

Stay ahead of the markets as Powell takes the stage at Jackson Hole. Get the latest on equities, commodities, FX, and geopolitical risks shaping trading this week.

22 August 2025

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Gladys Eguia

Traders are closing the week on edge as all eyes turn to Jackson Hole for Powell’s next big signal. Equities are flat—U.S. futures barely budging while European indices swing with every Ukraine headline.

Commodities show more action: oil’s pushing higher despite oversupply fears, while gold finds mild support from a softer dollar. In FX, the greenback drifts lower on rising rate-cut bets, but expect volatility to kick up once Powell steps up to the mic.

It is important to remember to assess your financial situation and risk tolerance, before engaging in copy trading. Past performance and forecast are not reliable indicators of future results.

Waiting on Powell: Markets Stuck in Neutral

This week feels like one big holding pattern. Traders are parked, waiting for Powell at Jackson Hole to drop clues on where the Fed’s really leaning—and how divided they are on rate cuts.

Geopolitics aren’t helping either, with Ukraine peace talk headlines keeping a layer of uncertainty in the mix. Still, not everyone’s gloomy—surveys show pockets of investor optimism hanging in there.

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Earnings, Data, and Powell on Deck

Equities are moving cautious—U.S. futures under pressure as traders juggle earnings, fresh data, and the countdown to Powell. Small-caps are flashing some relative strength, a sign of resilience even while the big indices stall.

Across Europe, geopolitics spark mild gains, though sector action is uneven—defense stocks lag as de-escalation chatter cools the bid.

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Commodities: Split Signals

Oil’s curve is leaning bullish, even with oversupply forecasts hanging over the market—a setup that could spell storage headaches if demand slows. Gold, on the other hand, is steady, getting support from a softer dollar and fading hopes of deep Fed cuts.

Both markets are stuck in a tug of war between upbeat narratives (think OPEC+ moves) and hard supply realities, keeping traders on guard for sharp sentiment flips.

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Greenback Grinds Higher, Uncertainty Lingers

The dollar’s ticking higher as traders lean into Fed rate-cut bets, but the move’s anything but clean—volatility’s still running hot with U.S. growth and inflation in the balance.

Safe-haven flows are picky, and EM currencies keep grinding through geopolitical and trade noise. Bottom line: FX desks are in cautious repositioning mode, waiting for Powell to set the tone.

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IMPORTANT NOTICE: Any news, opinions, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this article are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and therefore, it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Past performance is not an indication of possible future performance. Any action you take upon the information in this article is strictly at your own risk, and we will not be liable for any losses and damages in connection with the use of this article.

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