- Social Hub
- Offering
- Resources
- Company
- Partnerships
- Home
- Markets Updates
- Gold Poised for Pullback After Strong Surge
XAUUSD 4-Hour Timeframe, 15 March 2024
Gold had been trading within a narrow range on a 4-hour timeframe until a bullish surge on March 1, 2024, propelled prices upward from 2026 to a recent peak of 2193. This sudden move demonstrates significant strength but lacks sustainability, necessitating robust fundamental drivers to sustain further upward momentum without undergoing a retracement or consolidation phase.
Our long-term perspective aligns with the prevailing uptrend, although we anticipate a potential correction to the downside, possibly even a reversal in trend, contingent upon fundamental factors.
Gold is currently consolidating within a triangular pattern, characterized by diminishing volatility and subsequent formation of lower highs and higher lows, a pattern often indicative of imminent strong breakouts.
Analysis of the 50 and 100 period simple moving averages suggests an ongoing uptrend. However, there exists a possibility of retracement towards the zone of the 50/100 period moving averages, recognized as reliable dynamic support and resistance levels for Gold.
In the event of a downside break, the next significant target is the December 3, 2023 peak at the 2143 level, coinciding with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Subsequently, the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 2113 becomes the next target for the downward movement.
Conversely, in the case of an upside break, the major psychological level of 2200 emerges as a notable target, slightly surpassing the recent high.
When trading breakouts, two approaches merit consideration. The first entails trading as the breakout transpires, potentially yielding higher profits per successful trade but also increasing the risk of trading false moves. The second option involves waiting for a retracement, which may enhance the probability of a successful trade but could result in missed opportunities or reduced profits per trade, contingent upon each trader's risk tolerance.
Absence of robust fundamental drivers or a shift in sentiment may indicate Gold's readiness for a retracement before potentially charting new highs.
Summary:
- Gold broke out of its trading range on March 1, 2024.
- The breakout nearly reached the 2200 level before consolidating into a triangle pattern.
- A breakout is expected soon, with a preference for a downside move if fundamentals and sentiment remain stable.
- The initial target is 2143.91, aligned with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the December 1, 2023 high.
- The second target is the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 2113.
- Alternatively, an upside breakout could target the psychological level of 2200.
IMPORTANT NOTICE: Any news, opinions, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this article are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and therefore, it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Past performance is not an indication of possible future performance. Any action you take upon the information in this article is strictly at your own risk, and we will not be liable for any losses and damages in connection with the use of this article.
RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. A high percentage of retail client investors lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Related articles
NAGA Weekly Recap May 26 - 30, 2025
30 May 2025
Markets gain ground as inflation cools slightly and tech leads the way. The Fed stays cautious, while gold dips, oil holds, and the dollar stays firm.
Read more
Gladys Eguia
NAGA Weekly Recap May 26 - 30, 2025
30 May 2025
Markets gain ground as inflation cools slightly and tech leads the way. The Fed stays cautious, while gold dips, oil holds, and the dollar stays firm.
Read more
Gladys Eguia
Need Help? Visit our Help Section
Download NAGA Trader
Markets
Platforms
Pricing & Terms
Company
Documentation
Partnerships
Help & Support
Social Hub
Free Education
News & Analysis
Download NAGA Trader
Copyright © 2024 – All rights reserved.
NAGA is a trademark of The NAGA Group AG, a German based FinTech company publicly listed on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange | WKN: A161NR | ISIN: DE000A161NR7.
The website is operated by NAGA Capital Ltd which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority Seychelles (FSA) under licence No. SD026. The registered address of Suite 3, Jivan’s Complex, Global Village, Mont Fleuri, Mahe, Seychelles. Tel: +248 4373121
Partner Companies: NAGA Markets Europe Ltd, authorised and regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission ("CySEC") under license No. 204/13 with registered address at Agias Zonis 11, Limassol, 3027, Cyprus and NAGA Global (CY) Ltd, with registered address at Nikokreontos 2, NICE DREAM, 6th floor, Flat/Office 601, 1066, Nicosia, Cyprus.
RISK WARNING: Derivatives are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how derivatives work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. This is not investment advice. Trading with NAGA Trader by following and/or copying or replicating the trades of other traders involves high levels of risks, even when following and/or copying or replicating the Lead Traders. Such risks include the risk that you may be following/copying the trading decisions of possibly inexperienced/unprofessional traders, or traders whose ultimate purpose or intention, or financial status may differ from yours. Before making an investment decision, you should rely on your own assessment of the person making the trading decisions and the terms of all the legal documentation.
Restricted countries: NAGA Capital Ltd does not provide services for the residents of certain countries, such as Afghanistan, Albania, American Samoa, Anguilla, Australia, Austria, Barbados, Belarus, Belgium, Bermuda, British Indian Ocean Territory, Bulgaria, Burkina Faso, Canada, Cayman Islands, Central African Republic, Christmas Island, Cocos (Keeling) Islands, The Democratic Republic of the Congo, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Falkland Islands (Malvinas), Finland, France, Germany, Gibraltar, Greece, Guam, Haiti, Heard Island and McDonald Islands, Hungary, Iceland, Islamic Republic of Iran, Ireland, Isle of Man, Israel, Italy, Jamaica, Japan, Jersey, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Latvia, Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mali, Malta, Montserrat, Mozambique, Myanmar, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norfolk Island, Norway, Palestinian Territory, Occupied, Pitcairn, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russian Federation, Saint Helena, Ascension and Tristan Da Cunha, San Marino, Senegal, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Somalia, South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands, South Sudan, Spain, Sri Lanka, Sweden, Switzerland, Syrian Arab Republic, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia, Turks and Caicos Islands, Uganda, Ukraine, United Kingdom and any other countries where the citizens have British proof of identity (i.e. British Virgin Island, Gibraltar, Isle of Man etc.), United States, U.S. Minor Islands, Vanuatu, Virgin Islands, British, Virgin Islands, U.S., Yemen, and Zimbabwe.