Each week we highlight the three most market-relevant U.S. economic events, helping traders and investors position ahead of major macro catalysts. This week’s trifecta—Fed policy, inflation, and jobs—could well define the outlook for Q3.
🔹 1. FOMC Interest Rate Decision – Tuesday, July 30
What to Know:
The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates at 4.25%–4.50%—the same range it's maintained since December 2024.
Expectations are tight: the CME FedWatch tool currently assigns a 97.4% probability of no change.
Key for Traders:
All eyes will be on Chair Powell’s press conference for nuance on rate cuts (consensus pricing tilts toward September).
With inflation still above target (~2.7%) and labor resilience holding, even subtle shifts in tone could influence yield curves and USD moves.
Any perception of political pressure undermining Fed independence may also weigh on markets.
🔹 2. Core PCE Price Index (June) – Wednesday, July 31
What to Know:
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge rose 0.2% month-over-month in May, with a year-over-year rate of 2.7%, up from 2.6% in April.
Key for Traders:
Core PCE (excluding food and energy) is smoother than CPI and signals underlying inflation trends.
A weaker print (<0.2%) could pave the way for a rate cut in Q3, while a hotter surprise might push back policy easing.
Watch subcomponents—services inflation, housing, healthcare—as clues to inflation stickiness.
🔹 3. Nonfarm Payrolls & Wage Growth (July) – Friday, August 1
What to Know:
The June jobs report showed 147,000 jobs added, above forecasts (~110K), with the unemployment rate declining to 4.1%. Wages rose by 0.2% MoM, bringing annual wage growth to 3.7%.
Key for Traders:
Payroll gains remain steady, but private hiring slowed (74K), and much of the strength came from government and healthcare sectors.
The decline in labor force participation (now 62.3%) helped lower the unemployment rate—something traders and policymakers note.
Wage growth cooling from recent peaks may ease inflation pressures—but persistent wage stickiness would keep the Fed cautious.
🧠 For Beginners & Pros Alike
FOMC: Sets U.S. interest rates; even without a change, the statement and Powell's tone carry immense market weight.
Core PCE: The inflation measure the Fed tracks. It strips out food and energy to show true price trends.
Nonfarm Payrolls: Indicates job growth and wage trends—central to the Fed’s decision calculus.
✅ Why This Week Counts
This week’s releases could crystallize—or challenge—the market’s Q3 narrative. If inflation and jobs soften, cut expectations could be pulled forward. If not, policymakers may hold fire. For macro desks and trading desks alike, positioning correctly now could make all the difference.
Stay tuned for next Monday's briefing to get ahead of next week’s data.
