Traders, buckle up — this week is packed with the kind of economic data that can set the tone for markets well into 2026. Inflation readings from Canada and the U.K. are out, and the spotlight also hits the Federal Open Market Committee’s latest meeting minutes. If you like volatility, this is your week.
Markets are watching for signs of disinflation. Will central banks feel comfortable cutting rates next year or are they sticking to a cautious approach? Traders are already positioning for big moves — a surprise in any of these releases could spark a sharp reaction in currencies, equities and bonds.
Here are the three top events to watch — now with the latest background numbers:
Canada Consumer Price Index (Mon, Nov 17)
What it is: Canada’s CPI measures how much a typical basket of goods and services has changed in price over the last year.
Latest stats: Annual inflation rose to 2.4% in September 2025, up from 1.9% in the prior month. Trading Economics+2Statistics Canada+2
Why it matters:
With inflation at ~2.4%, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is closer to its inflation target, which raises questions about whether rate cuts could be on the table.
A higher‐than‐expected CPI could keep the BoC in tightening or hold mode, supporting the CAD; a softer print might open the door for earlier easing.
Market impact: Expect volatility in CAD pairs (especially vs USD) and possible ripple effects into commodities and Canadian equities if inflation surprises.
U.K. Consumer Price Index (Wed, Nov 19)
What it is: The U.K.’s CPI measures inflation in the U.K. economy — a key guide for the Bank of England (BoE).
Latest stats: The U.K. annual inflation rate was 3.8% in September 2025, unchanged from the previous two months. Trading Economics+2House of Commons Library+2
Why it matters:
With inflation still well above the BoE’s 2% target, the question is how quickly disinflation will proceed.
If inflation remains sticky, the BoE may hold off rate cuts. If there’s a clear softening, markets may start pricing in cuts — supportive for GBP.
Market impact: GBP pairs are likely to see sharp reactions. Also, U.K. gilt yields and U.K. equities could move based on any surprise in inflation.
U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes (Wed, Nov 19)
What it is: The FOMC minutes provide a detailed transcript of the policy‐setting meeting of the Federal Reserve (Fed), giving insights into members’ views on inflation, growth, labor markets, and the future path of rates.
Latest stats / context:
At its October meeting, the Fed cut the policy rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75‑4.00%. Wells Fargo Advisors+1
According to the minutes preview, the Fed signalled that “uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated” and that downside risks to employment increased. Wells Fargo Advisors+1
Why it matters:
The minutes will reveal how unified (“hawkish” vs “dovish”) Fed members were, whether they signalled more cuts in 2026 or pushed them out, and how they view inflation and labor risk.
A dovish tilt could weaken the USD and boost risk assets; a hawkish tilt might bolster the USD and hurt risk sentiment.
Market impact: Expect significant USD volatility — FX, Treasury yields and equities could all react quickly. This is one of the most impactful items this week.
