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Bearish Signals on EUR/USD: Are Lower Lows Ahead?

9 May 2024

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Past performance is not indicative of future results. All historical data, including but not limited to returns, volatility, and other performance metrics, should not be construed as a guarantee of future performance.
EURUSD 1-Hour Timeframe 09 May 2024 

EURUSD, on an hourly timeframe, has been experiencing higher-than-average volatility. The pair reached a recent high at 1.08116 and has since begun its descent with decreasing volatility. 

The current downtrend is supported by the moving averages (50-period in green and 100-period in blue), alongside a pattern of lower highs, indicating a well-established trend. 

However, EURUSD is currently confined to a narrow 20-pip range over the past two days, suggesting an imminent breakout. 

The prevailing bias suggests a downside breakout. Should bears break the narrow trading range convincingly, we might witness prices declining to 1.07103 or even as low as 1.06865. 

Conversely, if bulls manage to breach the current range, exercising caution and awaiting additional confirmation is essential to avoid falling into a bull trap. In the event of an upside breakout maintaining momentum, potential upper targets include 1.07756 and the notable 1.08000 level. 

Summary:   

  • EURUSD shows above-average volatility. 
  • Recent peak followed by descent with diminishing volatility. 
  • Downtrend confirmed by moving averages and lower highs. 
  • Trading within narrow 20 pip range, suggesting potential breakout. 
  • Bias favors downside breakout, with targets if bears break range. 
  • Additional confirmation needed if bulls break range, with potential targets. 
     
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