After a week of mixed market movements, all eyes are now on key economic releases.
The spotlight will be on the ECB’s Interest Rate Decision, with expectations of a possible rate cut that could shake up the EUR/USD and European indices. Additionally, crucial data such as the UK’s Claimant Count Change, the European CPI, and the U.S. Retail Sales report, along with the EIA’s Crude Oil Inventory numbers, are expected to drive volatility across sectors.
Buckle up for a pivotal week that could set the tone for the rest of the quarter!
🇬🇧 Claimant Count Change — October 15, at 09:00 GMT+3
The UK's Claimant Count Change is the first key release of the week, potentially impacting the GBP/USD pair. This indicator reflects the change in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits, providing insight into the health of the labor market.
The forecast is 89.6K, down from the previous 135.0K, suggesting a possible decline in unemployment claims.
This release is particularly significant as the Pound Sterling (GBP) has recorded its second consecutive weekly loss against the US Dollar (USD), pushing the $GBPUSD pair to a one-month low below 1.3050.
🇪🇺 CPI and Core CPI — October 17, at 12:00 GMT+3
The upcoming release of the European CPI and Core CPI will precede the ECB's rate decision and could serve as a crucial signal for a potential rate cut. However, no changes are forecasted, with monthly CPI expected at -0.1%, the same as last time, and the annual figure also remaining at -2.7%.
This data is particularly important as the $EURUSD pair has dropped to 1.0900 at the start of the week, and its future direction will largely depend on the ECB's upcoming decision.
🇪🇺 ECB Interest Rate Decision — October 17, at 15:15 GMT+3
The ECB Interest Rate Decision is arguably the most important release of the week. At its monetary policy meeting on October 17, the European Central Bank is expected to cut the key interest rate by another 0.25 percentage points to 3.25%.
This has been signaled by several ECB council members, including President Christine Lagarde and French central bank chief François Villeroy de Galhau, as inflation now sits below the ECB's 2% target, with September's preliminary inflation rate at 1.8%. However, while a rate cut seems likely, some economists question whether it will happen in October, suggesting the December meeting may be more pivotal.
This decision will likely impact the EUR/USD exchange rate and Germany's DAX index.
🇺🇸 Retail Sales m/m — October 17, at 15:30 GMT+3
The U.S. Retail Sales m/m report is another key release this week, with a forecast of 0.4%, up from the previous 0.1%. This report is a key indicator of consumer spending, which drives much of the U.S. economy.
Stronger-than-expected retail sales could signal robust economic activity, potentially boosting indices like the S&P 500 ($SPX500), Nasdaq ($NAS100), and Dow Jones ($US30). However, if the data falls short of expectations, it may raise concerns about economic momentum, leading to declines in these major stock indexes.
🛢️ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — October 17, at 18:00 GMT+3
The EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change will be the final key release of the week, providing crucial insights into the oil market's supply-demand balance. A draw of 4.224 million barrels is expected, following last week’s unexpected build of 5.810 million barrels.
Crude oil traders will be watching this report closely, as a significant drawdown could signal tightening supplies, potentially boosting prices for WTI ($USOUSD) and Brent ($UKOUSD).
Conversely, a smaller draw or an unexpected build could trigger a sell-off, easing pressure on prices and leading to possible declines in energy stocks.
That's it for this week! 👋
