Last week witnessed a remarkable surge in stock markets, with the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average all reaching unprecedented highs.
Looking ahead to this week, markets are bracing for potentially unforeseen behaviors influenced by upcoming economic releases. We've outlined five key releases for the week that are recommended to be closely monitored.
🇺🇸 CB Consumer Confidence Index on Tuesday, February 27, at 17:00 GMT+2
The first key economic release to closely monitor this week is the American CB Consumer Confidence Index. This leading indicator forecasts consumer spending, which is a crucial component of economic activity. High readings indicate consumer optimism, while low readings suggest pessimism. As evidenced by past trends, the index influences the US Dollar, causing fluctuations that, in turn, affect the EUR/USD currency pair, which currently depreciates to near 1.0820 before the 21-day EMA.
According to forecasts, the index is expected to stand at 108.0 compared to 114.8 last month.
🛢 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change on Wednesday, February 28, at 17:30 GMT+2
The EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, a key component of the weekly report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, reflects the volume of barrels of commercial crude oil held in storage by American companies over a specific period, typically a week. Forecasts indicate an expected increase in stock levels to 3.930 million barrels, compared to the previous value of 3.514 million barrels. Consequently, this development could impact the prices of Brent and WTI crude oil. An increase in stocks suggests a potential surplus, which may lead to downward pressure on prices as it signals reduced scarcity in the market.
🇨🇦 GDP m/m on Thursday, February 29, at 15:30 GMT+2
The next release will impact the USD/CAD currency pair, as it pertains to Canada's monthly GDP. Expectations suggest a slight slowdown in GDP growth to 0.1%, compared to the previous month's growth of 0.2%. All of this occurs against the backdrop of USD/CAD attracting some buyers above the 1.3500 mark due to the stronger US Dollar and a decline in oil prices. Consequently, the pair's further movement will depend on the outcome of the release.
🇪🇺 CPI and Core CPI m/m on Friday, March 1, at 12:00 GMT+2
The upcoming release of the European CPI and Core CPI m/m (Consumer Price Index and Core Consumer Price Index month-over-month) is poised to influence the EUR/USD currency pair and the DAX30 index. This release signifies the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of consumers, excluding volatile food and energy prices (Core CPI). It serves as a crucial indicator of inflationary pressures within the Eurozone economy.
Depending on whether the actual figures deviate from expectations, this release can impact market sentiment towards the Euro and subsequently affect the EUR/USD exchange rate. Additionally, fluctuations in inflation can influence investors' perceptions of the European economy's health, potentially impacting the DAX30 index, which reflects the performance of major German stocks.
🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing PMI on Friday, March 1, at 17:00 GMT+2
This report presents the current business conditions within the U.S. manufacturing sector. Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures are widely regarded as highly dependable leading indicators for gauging the state of the U.S. economy, offering analysts and economists valuable insights into forthcoming economic shifts. In the previous week, the PMI indicator released by S&P Global indicated a robust upward trend in the manufacturing sector.
Looking ahead, forecasts suggest that the ISM report may reveal a decrease to around 48.0, down from the previous release of 49.1. This potential decline could impact indices such as the Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and SPX500, while also prompting fluctuations in the value of the US Dollar.
That's it for this week! 👋
