SPX500 Sell-Off Continues — Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Markets

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All historical data, including but not limited to returns, volatility, and other performance metrics, should not be construed as a guarantee of future performance. 

SPX500 on an Hourly Timeframe 

SPX500 on a 1-hour timeframe has been trading in a downward trajectory following a period of consolidation within a rising channel. The price reached a peak at the upper boundary near 5775, but failed to sustain the bullish momentum and reversed below key support levels. A steep decline occurred as the price broke below the 5734 level, marked by the 200-period moving average, indicating weakening buyer interest.  

The recent breakdown highlights increasing bearish pressure as the price approaches the 5686 support, showing that buyers were unable to counter the prevailing risk-off sentiment in the market.   

The technical indicators provide further confirmation of bearish momentum. The RSI is currently at 35, signaling that the market is nearing oversold conditions, but there is still room for further downside.  

Additionally, the Stochastic oscillator has dipped into oversold territory at 18, with a slight attempt at turning upwards. However, the lack of a significant bullish crossover suggests that the selling pressure may continue in the short term. Price remains below both the 50-period and 200-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias. 

In the main scenario, continued bearish action is anticipated, with SPX500 potentially testing the 5618 support if downward pressure persists. The inability of bulls to defend the 5686 level may drive prices lower, especially given the current risk-averse market environment. A decisive break below 5686 could open the door for a more extended move toward lower support zones. 

Alternatively, if buyers manage to reclaim the 5686 level and stabilize the price action above it, a recovery towards the 5734 resistance could unfold. A decisive move above this level, particularly accompanied by increasing volumes, would suggest a potential shift back towards the upper boundary of the previous channel near 5775. However, any upside movement would likely be constrained by ongoing geopolitical risks. 

The recent decline has been fundamentally driven by heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly the missile attack from Iran on Israel. This development has raised concerns about a potential escalation in the Middle East, prompting a risk-off move across global markets. Investors are turning to safer assets like gold and government bonds, while equities face increased selling pressure.  

Close attention should be paid to further developments in the Middle East, as this could heavily influence market direction in the coming sessions. Risk-on sentiment could reemerge if tensions ease, but any further escalation would likely lead to additional downside for equities. 

Summary 

• SPX500 broke key support at 5734, signaling increased selling pressure. 
• Market sentiment turned risk-off due to heightened tensions in the Middle East. 
• Price is approaching the 5686 support, which could determine the next move. 
• RSI and Stochastic show oversold conditions, suggesting potential short-term volatility. 
• Continued bearish action may test 5618, while any recovery depends on reclaiming 5734.