The preliminary results for FY 2025 demonstrate the company's operational resilience, with foreign exchange-adjusted revenue increasing by 3.5% to €65.4 million and a remarkable 37.5% surge in new clients. The company is gaining momentum through technology upgrades and capital expenditures. Analysts anticipate that the company will reach breakeven by 2027, forecasting a 52% growth in earnings per share (EPS). Additionally, intrinsic valuations indicate that the NAGA Group stock is currently undervalued by over 80% at prices around €2.70, suggesting significant upside potential.
Scenario 2026 Target Key Assumptions Probability Base €5.00- €7.00 15% revenue growth, 15% EBITDA margin 60% Bull €10.00+ +25% users, crypto surge, AI adoption 30% Bear €2.50- €2.00 Low volatility, new regulations 10% Table with NAGA Group Stock Forecast and Price Prediction for 2026
NAGA Group stock overview
NAGA Group AG has transformed from a social trading pioneer since its 2017 IPO into a comprehensive fintech ecosystem, now serving a community of over 2 million users across Europe, MENA, Asia, and LATAM. It provides seamless access to stocks, ETFs, cryptocurrencies, CFDs, and payment services. The flagship NAGA One app integrates trading, investing with real asset ownership, social copy trading, crypto, and smart payment solutions, creating a "one app, infinite possibilities" experience by eliminating silos.
In 2025, despite facing a structurally challenging environment, NAGA improved execution speeds, reduced onboarding times, and successfully completed a capital expenditure merger. This led to a decrease in operational expenses while marketing investment was increased by 16%, resulting in a 38% increase in new funded clients at a 16% lower cost per acquisition.
This foundation aligns perfectly with the trends expected in 2026, including mobile-first AI analytics, cross-asset access, and institutional-grade tools for retail traders, as noted by Finance Magnates. Average revenue per user (ARPU) remained at a relatively stable figure, while withdrawals decreased by 21%, despite a minor slowdown in deposits, indicating stronger user engagement and retention. Client retention strengthened via social features and NAGA Earn—daily yields on uninvested funds—positioning NAGA as a leader in the €100 billion online brokerage market, where user acquisition costs continue to decline.
With its regulated status and transparent reporting, NAGA builds trust as it seeks to expand its offerings, such as tighter spreads, a broader range of asset classes, crypto staking, and real-time signals. As markets begin to rebound—particularly with U.S. equities thriving and crypto recovering post-halving—NAGA's roadmap indicates a plan for accelerated monetization.
NAGA Group stock fundamental analysis
NAGA demonstrates impressive improvements in key metrics despite a challenging fiscal year 2025 marked by high interest rates and volatility at historical low levels. Revenue reached €62.4 million, remaining flat year-over-year in nominal terms but increasing by 3.5% to €65.4 million when adjusted for foreign exchange. EBITDA dropped to €3.3 million from €9 million, mainly due to increased investment in marketing, resulting in an impressive increase of first-time depositors, laying the foundation of future growth; however, the FX-adjusted EBITDA of €4.7 million indicates underlying strength. In the first half of 2025, revenue increased by 2% to €32.3 million, while EBITDA rose by 4% to €3 million, yielding 9% margin, highlighting the company’s consistency.
Marketing efficiency has improved significantly, with a client growth of 38% and a 16% decline in cost per acquisition (CPA). This showcases NAGA’s ability to scale client acquisition in a competitive fintech market.
From a balance sheet perspective, deposits have stabilized, reflecting growing confidence in the company. Initiatives like CapEx (Capital Expenditure) optimization from the merger are expected to unlock cost savings extending into 2026. User metrics are also strong, with average revenue per user (ARPU) remaining relatively stable at approximately €1,600 despite a challenging year.
There are many growth drivers in play, including AI integration, user interface overhauls, and payment-trading links aimed at bridging the gap between retail and institutional investors. Analysts have highlighted the potential for sales growth, and S&P has awarded a top-tier rating. The consensus gives NAGA Group stock an "overweight" rating, with projections indicating breakeven by 2027 through a 52% annual increase in earnings per share (EPS). Estimates of intrinsic value suggest a fair price for NAGA Group stock of €12.44, representing a +300% increase from the current price, factoring in recurring revenue from a community of over 2 million users and expansion in the MENA and Asia regions.
NAGA's competitive advantages include the network effects of social trading, a wide range of asset offerings, and regulatory benefits from BaFin oversight. While risks such as low volatility and interest rate sensitivity are present, the company is outweighed by positive trends like the potential revival of the cryptocurrency market, stock market volatility, and the excitement surrounding AI in fintech. As operational expenses normalize, it is anticipated that EBITDA margins could rebound to over 25% by 2027, supporting reinvestment and potential stock buybacks. NAGA's evolution from a brokerage into an "intelligence hub" solidifies its premium positioning in the market.
NAGA Group stock technical analysis
As of the beginning of 2026, N4G stock is showing a potential bullish reversal after consolidating from its 2025 lows, as suggested by the technical indicators:
- RSI (14) is below 30, indicating oversold conditions with potential for upward movement;
- The Stochastic Oscillator is around 50 (suggesting bullish momentum); the ADX is at 40, indicating strength in the trend;
- Williams %R is at -50, showing an overbought condition but with momentum still intact.
Moving averages are neutral, and the MACD is showing a crossover on the horizon, suggesting a trend change. The Rate of Change (ROC) is at +2.36%, indicating positive momentum.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. All historical data, including but not limited to returns, volatility, and other performance metrics, should not be construed as a guarantee of future performance.
From a weekly perspective, NAGA Group stock has formed lower lows, hitting the €1.50 trough, and is currently consolidating at €2.7. A breakout above €3 level could target the €4.30-4.80 Fibonacci retracements of the last leg down. Additionally, increased trading volume on up days confirms accumulation, and the Average True Range (ATR) of 0.6 suggests low volatility.
Compared with its fintech peers on XETRA, NAGA Group stock is outperforming with a beta below 1, indicating it is less volatile than pure crypto assets. Bull flags from Q4 2025 indicate an upward resolution, coinciding with a broader market rebound, as evidenced by an increase in the DAX prices at the beginning of 2026. Although there is a risk of a short-term pullback, the momentum favours a 20-30% rally by Q2.
NAGA Group stock price predictions
NAGA Group stock forecasts from Market Screener, Alpha Spread, or Simply Wall Street suggest a target price of €5 to €7 by the end of 2026. The base case anticipates 15% revenue growth, reaching €75 million, driven by an increase in average revenue per user (ARPU), and an EBITDA of €8 million with a 15% margin. This would imply a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 1.5x on a €112 million market cap, resulting in a €6 per share valuation.
In a bullish scenario, the price could exceed €10 if volatility surges and AI features attract 25% more users, pushing margins to 20%, as seen in the eToro rally. By 2027, achieving a breakeven of €4.5 million net profit would yield an earnings per share (EPS) of €0.20 at a 30x earnings multiple, which aligns with a €6 target price for 2026.
According to Alpha Spread, the NAGA Group’s stock intrinsic value is estimated at €12.44, based on a conservative 20% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), especially when compared to peers like Plus500, which operates at a 10x price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Key catalysts for growth include potential earnings above expectations in Q1 2026, the launch of a new roadmap featuring AI signals, and consolidations from mergers and acquisitions (M&A).
While there are risks, including a possible 10-20% drawdown, these are mitigated by cash reserves. Looking long-term, the target price could rise to between €15 and €20 by 2030 as the fintech sector consolidates and NAGA captures a 1% market share.
Is NAGA Group a good stock to buy in 2026?
NAGA Group AG (N4G.DE) presents a compelling growth opportunity in 2026, blending undervaluation, technological momentum, and macro tailwinds.
Risks like low market volatility or upcoming 2026 ESMA reviews potentially raising compliance costs or restricting product offerings remain, but NAGA's +80% intrinsic discount, breakeven path by 2027, and social/copy-trading moats mitigate them, favouring +100% upside in a base case.
Sources:
- The NAGA Group AG Announces Preliminary FY 2025 Financial Results
- The NAGA Group beschleunigt den Plattformausbau und stärkt die Kundenbindung in Q1 2025 | MarketScreener Deutschland
- NAGA Cites “Structural Headwinds” as 2025 Revenue Holds Steady, but EBITDA Falls
- NAGA Group sees 3.5% increase in 2025 Revenue to €65.4 million - FX News Group
- THE NAGA GROUP AKTIE | Aktienkurs | DE000A161NR7 | A161NR | News | finanzen.net
