Past performance is not indicative of future results. All historical data, including but not limited to returns, volatility, and other performance metrics, should not be construed as a guarantee of future performance.
EURUSD on a daily timeframe.
The EURUSD pair has demonstrated a pronounced bullish recovery from its mid-February lows, where it rebounded from the 1.0250–1.01700 zone. This region previously acted as a solid support level in early December 2024 and has since facilitated the transition from a medium-term downtrend into a consolidation and eventual uptrend. This upward momentum culminated in a surge toward the 1.1570 resistance area, a price level not visited since July 2023. Historically, such moves often represent either the early stages of a long-term trend reversal or a corrective retracement within a broader bearish structure.
In recent sessions, the pair has retraced from the highs near 1.1570 and found support just above the 1.1088 level. Price has reacted positively to this level, suggesting buying interest remains intact, albeit tempered by reduced momentum. The green 50-day simple moving average (SMA) continues to trend upwards, and price has respected this average during the latest pullback. Meanwhile, the 100-day (blue) and 200-day (yellow) SMAs are still converging, supporting the broader bullish bias while indicating a zone of strong dynamic support between 1.0900 and 1.0770.
From an indicator standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near the neutral 50 mark, showing a lack of clear directional momentum at the moment. The Stochastic Oscillator, however, is turning higher from oversold territory, crossing upward—a potentially bullish signal, albeit with room for volatility. These mixed readings suggest that while short-term pressure is easing to the upside, conviction is not yet strong.
If EURUSD sustains a move above 1.1267, further gains toward 1.1420 and potentially 1.1573 could unfold in the coming weeks, contingent on favorable macroeconomic data. Such a move would likely require a break of recent highs and confirmation via increased volume or stronger bullish candles. The main scenario favors a resumption of the upward trend, particularly if risk appetite remains steady and U.S. dollar sentiment weakens amid growing expectations of Fed easing in the second half of 2025.
Alternatively, if the pair fails to sustain gains above 1.1267 and instead falls below 1.1088, a retest of the 1.0911 and 1.0770 support levels becomes increasingly likely. This would place the focus back on the 100-day and 200-day SMAs as crucial zones to determine whether the recent uptrend remains intact or a broader correction is underway. A break below 1.0770 would invalidate the bullish thesis and shift sentiment back toward a bearish medium-term outlook.
The fundamental backdrop for EURUSD is currently mixed. While recent weakness in the U.S. dollar, driven by a softer inflation print and unresolved trade tensions—particularly around U.S.–China tariffs—has helped EURUSD find support near 1.1088, the broader macroeconomic landscape leans bearish. The Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance, contrasting with the European Central Bank, which already cut rates last month and is expected to cut again in June. Political instability in Germany and France further complicates the euro's outlook. Speculative positioning remains net long, supporting short-term resilience, but commercial interest continues to hedge against downside risk. As a result, unless the euro can break decisively above resistance at 1.1572, the risk remains for deeper declines, particularly if U.S. data begins to outperform or if Eurozone political and economic challenges escalate.
SUMMARY:
- EURUSD rockets from mid-Feb lows near 1.0170–1.0250, charging toward resistance at 1.1570—the highest since July ’23.
- Support holds firm above 1.1088, backed by rising 50-day SMA and strong dynamic support near 1.0900–1.0770.
- Mixed signals: RSI neutral but Stochastic flashes bullish—breaking 1.1267 could ignite a rally to 1.1573.
- Dollar weakness fuels gains, but ECB cuts and Eurozone risks loom—falling below 1.0770 flips the script bearish.
